UFC 296 was a pretty solid event, and once again this article navigated the 9k range with spot on accuracy. Full disclosure, especially with Garry and Brown falling off the card, it was pretty much moron proof to be able to do that. The only surprise was Garbrandt, who was identified as a “roll the dice” option. In all honesty, I didn’t play him in my contests, but I won money in everything I entered so I cannot be too upset by that miss.
This chalkboard article was supposed to be the first behind the paywall, but since I was not able to lock in the new Draftkings layout in time, it will remain free until that point. The ultimate goal however is to get this article involved in premium, because it has just been that damn accurate when it comes to avoiding the landmines at the top of the slates on DraftKings. Of course we do miss from time to time, and that is unfortunate, but DraftKings is not designed for people to be perfect. If you are able to navigate the top end of the slate (which also helps you navigate the bottom of the slate) then you have a great jump on getting your cash and single entry lineups nailed down.
This week we head into UFC Vegas 84 at the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The prelims start at 4pm est and is loaded with numerous prospects on display for your enjoyment. The main card is set to begin at 7pm est and features a rematch from the no contest a few weeks ago between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
The article is written for cash games and single entry tournaments, however you may see a large field or MME reference from time to time. It is split into three very distinctive sections. The first is the “Lock Them In” section which features the fighters in the salary range that I think will make a perfect addition to cash and small-field single entry lineups. The second section of the article is “Roll The Dice” which provides information on fighters that could be great for your lineup but come with added risk that make them more comfortable for GPP lineups than cash lineups. The third and final section of the article is “Stay Away” and that is exactly what it sounds like, these fighters should be avoided at all cost for single entry tournaments and cash games. You may still want to use them for larger tournaments however, and potentially for mass multiple entry contests as well where complete fades are less frequent.
LOCK THEM IN
JEAN SILVA – $9600 (-900)
Jean Silva is making his official UFC debut this week against Westin Wilson. You may remember Westin Wilson’s last outing when he was thrown to the wolves against Joanderson Brito. Unfortunately for Wilson, this is more of the same here. He could have some success if he is able to get Jean Silva to the ground, but that is unlikely in my opinion. The reality here is that Silva will almost surely steamroll Wilson, but the suggestion to play him is more so based on the betting line and not the actual confidence level I have in Silva. The betting line is wide, very wide in my opinion, but since the salaries of DraftKings make it more possible to play these ridiculously favored fighters, I see no reason not to lock in Silva for cash games. When it comes to tournaments I definitely believe there is some merit in moving off of Silva to create an overall stronger lineup.
TOM NOLAN – $9200 (-340)
Tom Nolan is another fighter making his official debut this week. Nolan is a long striker that has no issue trying to push the action and chase finishes. His opponent this week is Nikolas Motta, who has pretty much the same demeanor as Nolan, but lacks a solid chin to support such reckless behavior. I see Nolan using his length and his power to get to Motta’s chin here and put up a great score in his first official UFC appearance. Nolan will be a building block for my tournament lineup, but I may exclude him from cash in favor of more safety since Motta has significant power if he can find Nolan’s chin first.
ROLL THE DICE
WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA – $9500 (-650)
Everyone seems to be incredibly confident in Cortes-Acosta to get a knockout in this fight. I am still very undecided. When Waldo connects his punches appear to have a ton of pop on them, but aside from his last fight, I haven’t actually seen his power materialize in other fights. A loud noise and the object you hit actually dropping are two very different things. I am not saying he won’t knock out his opponent, Andrei Arlovski, but I am skeptical enough to consider Waldo Cortes-Acosta as more of a dice roll than a sure thing. I may change my position if his ownership comes in way over what I thought it would be, but as it stands I am being very cautious due to the possibility that his score doesn’t reach the heights it would need to for $9500. If his ownership is projected very high then I will assume he will be valid for cash lineups as well.
MARCUS MCGHEE – $9100 (-240)
I have been waiting for the day that Marcus McGhee gets in the octagon with a real wrestler. The real reason for my thirst there is that when watching tape for his UFC debut against Journey Newson I noticed that he is very susceptible to a level change into a double leg takedown. That isn’t a reach, he got taken down over and over again in regional tape in that same exact way. Unfortunately, not even the great wrestler Journey Newson (will never believe that bullshit again) could manage the effort to attempt a double leg and McGhee has been rolling since. In this fight there is little threat of the wrestling from McGhee’s opponent, Gaston Bolanos, who is more of a Muay Thai striker with solid power. I actually believe that McGhee has the wrestling advantage, and certainly the grappling advantage, but I remain concerned that he will actually attempt to fight that way. I think McGhee could be great for tournament entries, but I am not confident enough in the fight script to use him for cash.
STAY AWAY
MAGOMED ANKALAEV – $9400 (-550)
The first fighter in the Stay Away section this week is the main event favorite. I know tons of people will be using him for cash, and there will likely be a fair amount using him for leverage in tournaments as well and hoping for a greater than ceiling performance. The reality is that the guy doesn’t score well regardless of how the fight goes, and hasn’t scored over 100 points since 2020 against Ion Cutelaba. Add in that his opponent, Johnny Walker, is always dangerous and a bit of an oddball when it comes to fighting style and this is one I would prefer to take a dog or pass approach on in my DraftKings lineups.
MANEL KAPE – $9000 (-270)
Personal bias alert! I cannot stand Manel Kape. I think he is arrogant for the sake of being arrogant, and to this point I haven’t seen a ton of reason for him to act that way. He seems very much like a middle of the road striker to me. He definitely has flashes of power, and has moments in fights that appear dynamic. The rest of those fights are largely him doing nothing though. He is low volume, has no grappling upside, and unless he starches his opponent, Matheus Nicolau, in the first round he will not produce a score that pays off his salary. Again, I would sooner take the dog shot on Nicolau, who won the first meeting between these two in a controversial decision.
FINAL THOUGHT
The fight night events are always tough. This is mostly due to the fact that very few casual MMA fans play these events on DraftKings being coupled with there being more massive favorites that the UFC is trying to build up. This one seems especially tough though because the underdogs are quite unimpressive, leaving us with an upper 8k range that you should probably be throwing darts at. Either way we press on and hope for the best.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
