Seeing Alexander Volkanovski fall in the way that he did brought back very unfavorable feelings from the night Conor McGreggor slept Jose Aldo (my favorite fighter of all-time) and I really didn’t love it. It wasn’t quite as bad, but close. The saving grace of the evening? Winning money in both cash contests and tournaments on DraftKings. The thought to move from Rinya Nakamura to Oban Elliot helped immensely, and fading both Robert Whittaker and Ian Garry sure made navigating the slate much easier.
For UFC Mexico we are heading almost eight thousand feet above sea level to Mexico City. These international slates are always loaded with the top talent from the country they are taking place in, and this one is no different. I think we are only really only missing the more established Mexican women from having every notable Mexican fighter on the slate. The prelims start at 7pm est and for the most part features a ton of Mexico vs. Brazil matchups. The main card is set to begin at 10pm est and kicks off with all of the top Mexican prospects before giving us two five round rematches. The first is the co-main featuring Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega, and the second is Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
The article is written for cash games and single entry tournaments, however you may see a large field or MME reference from time to time. It is split into three very distinctive sections. The first is the “Lock Them In” section which features the fighters in the salary range that I think will make a perfect addition to cash and small-field single entry lineups. The second section of the article is “Roll The Dice” which provides information on fighters that could be great for your lineup but come with added risk that make them more comfortable for GPP lineups than cash lineups. The third and final section of the article is “Stay Away” and that is exactly what it sounds like, these fighters should be avoided at all cost for single entry tournaments and cash games. You may still want to use them for larger tournaments however, and potentially for mass multiple entry contests as well where complete fades are less frequent.
LOCK THEM IN
MUHAMMAD NAIMOV – $9100 (-450)
This particular slate is incredibly questionable from top to bottom in my opinion. Almost every one of these fights there could be a solid case made for the underdog to win big early, or to outlast the more dynamic fighter and win on the scorecards. It makes navigating the slate incredibly difficult. In the spirit of how difficult that slate is, this first – and only – “lock them in” selection is based on nothing but the betting line and having the least dangerous opponent in the 9k range.
Muhammad Naimov is fighting Erik Silva who is returning from a decent sized layoff. Naimov is currently -450 to win in a fight that is favored to end inside the distance. Naimov is pretty well rounded and should have both the striking and wrestling advantage, although being on the ground for too long against Erik Silva might be counterproductive as finding a sneaky submission is about his only path to victory here in my opinion. Naimov will be my top play this week in both cash and single entry tournaments because his betting line is providing pretty solid value at a $400 discount over the most expensive play on the slate.
ROLL THE DICE
RAUL ROSAS JR. – $9000 (-214)
If you have been paying attention to quite literally anyone this week, including the top half of this article, you know that this event is taking place at an intense elevation in Mexico City. You likely also have heard that Raul Rosas Jr. has had some cardio issues in the past. That is leading a ton of people to be on Raul’s opponent in this fight, Ricky Turcios, who has a never ending gas tank. I get it, I really do, and I will probably have my fair share of Turcios this week also. That being said, if Raul Rosas Jr. wins this fight, and I firmly believe that he does, it will probably be in the first round through a grappling exchange where Turcios’ spastic nature puts him in a bad position. For that reason I absolutely love Raul Rosas Jr. this week on a DraftKings tournament entry.
EDGAR CHAIREZ – $9300 (-360)
We saw it before, and we are about to see it again. In the last one between these two there was a controversial stoppage (Lacerda was asleep and the ref stopped it at exactly the right time in my opinion) that had the MMA community up in arms. So we are getting it again. In the first matchup Lacerda was actually winning the round with activity and a little bit of wrestling, but the big question with Lacerda has always been his cardio and what he looks like after about the four minute mark of the first round. At the elevation these guys are going to be fighting at, I can’t imagine that Lacerda will last long wrestling and I am expecting a late first round, or early second round, finish. The only question mark for me will be the amount of activity from Chairez prior to Lacerda gassing out. Definitely worth a shot for tournament entries in my opinion though.
STAY AWAY
YAZMIN JAUREGUI – $9500 (-530)
This is strictly salary based, Yazmin is a savage and she should dominate this fight. The issue is that with this salary she would need either an early first round stoppage or a ton of wrestling to meet value. Neither of those things are really in her wheelhouse, especially with a tough opponent like Sam Hughes. I could see maybe a minimal amount of exposure in massive tournaments just in case she has a ceiling performance like she did against Istella Nunes, but it is HIGHLY unlikely.
FELIPE DOS SANTOS – $9200 (-290)
I went back and forth here between “roll the dice” and “stay away” and well, you see where he landed. Felipe Dos Santos is a fun, exciting fighter, but he has very little grappling or wrestling upside – some but not much – and his opponent is very tough. Between those two things I expect this fight to hit the scorecards and there is just very little path for Felipe to score much of anything in a win. To be honest, even the win is somewhat questionable in my opinion.
FINAL THOUGHT
The one thing you can be guaranteed this weekend is that the Mexican fighters rarely let you down from an entertainment perspective. They are warriors from top to bottom, and the show that we should be getting will reflect that I believe. Having two five round fights at the top of the card featuring two of the biggest stars in Mexican MMA should put an incredible cap on an exciting night of fights.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
