DraftKings Chalkboard: UFC 300
DraftKings Bo Nickal

Valter Walker turned out to be nothing of what was advertised, and rostering him in cash actually hurt more than it should have due to him only being about 30% owned in my cash contests. Nonetheless, even with Walker in my lineups, I managed to double up in cash. Tournaments were not able to withstand the mistake that was Valter Walker unfortunately.

Once again this week we are in Las Vegas, Nevada. Not in the Apex though this time around, nor sir, we are in the legendary T-Mobile Arena. The top of the card is loaded with title matches for the light heavyweight, women’s strawweight, and BMF belts. Beyond those fights we have a loaded card top to bottom. There are so many good fights on this card that I can’t name them all, we have two former champions OPENING the prelims as an example. With this many high level fights however comes a tricky path to navigate on a DFS slate. Let’s see if we can manage.

For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.

The article is written for cash games and single entry tournaments, however you may see a large field or MME reference from time to time. It is split into three very distinctive sections. The first is the “Lock Them In” section which features the fighters in the salary range that I think will make a perfect addition to cash and small-field single entry lineups. The second section of the article is “Roll The Dice” which provides information on fighters that could be great for your lineup but come with added risk that make them more comfortable for GPP lineups than cash lineups. The third and final section of the article is “Stay Away” and that is exactly what it sounds like, these fighters should be avoided at all cost for single entry tournaments and cash games. You may still want to use them for larger tournaments however, and potentially for mass multiple entry contests as well where complete fades are less frequent.

 

LOCK THEM IN

WEILI ZHANG – $9200 (-510)

Weili is DFS royalty, it is as simple as that. Zhang was able to put up 190 points in her last outing, and has put up well over 100 in numerous other fights as well. She is capable of breaking the slate and also comes with a very safe floor of five rounds with wrestling and grappling upside. Weili should be the most owned fighter on the slate this week, and it should be a no-brainer to have her included in both cash lineups and small-field single-entry tournaments. I think she is still pretty important for the larger contests as well, but you could choose to play contrarian there and hope for a stinker or a win from her opponent, Yan Xiaonan. I will have Weili in everything I enter across all contest types.

 

ROLL THE DICE

BO NICKAL – $9500 (-2300)

Bo Nickal is the golden goose, or at least is expected to be, for the UFC. He is a wrestler with amazing pedigree and seems to have embraced jiu-jitsu and striking as well pushing towards becoming a complete martial artist. His opponent this week, Cody Brundage, is well known for his lack of fight IQ and questionable cardio. The line on this fight is screaming Bo Nickal win, and nearly everyone agrees. 

That being said I think there is some concern that Brundage can make this very interesting for the first three minutes or so, especially if he can manage to avoid jumping a guillotine in moments where he is winning the fight. There should be plenty of people using Bo Nickal in cash contests, but despite the betting line, I will be using him in tournaments only. I am just not sure he can put up enough points in this one to justify the price tag of $9500 with many viable options under him on the slate. I also love the idea of rolling the dice on Brundage as well for what it's worth.

KAYLA HARRISON – $9300 (-440)

Kayla Harrison has made the move from PFL to the UFC, and when this week started I was pretty firmly on the side of her opponent, Holly Holm. Not because I think Holly will win, but because I thought the line was very wide considering how consistent Holly has been even at her age, and coupling that with Kayla having never fought UFC level competition in an MMA fight. Another glaring question mark was whether or not Kayla could make weight, having struggled even at 145lbs in the past.

Then media day rolled around, and Kayla looks great. She looks thin, and maybe more importantly, still absolutely jacked. So my opinion has been altered a bit. I still think the line is wide, but I am more so coming around to Kayla being a great tournament play. I expect she will be the lowest owned fighter near the top of the slate, and that could provide some leverage for tournaments as her path to victory includes plenty of takedowns and top control. I think you could in theory use her for cash also if the ownership comes in much higher than I expect it to, but if it stays low you are banking your entire entry on her getting a high scoring win in that scenario.

 

STAY AWAY

DEIVISON FIGUEIREDO – $9100 (-305)

Never in my life did I think I would be fading a guy who is fighting Cody Garbrandt. Here we are though, and I think it’s the right move. There are three fighters with pretty high wrestling and grappling upside above Figgy on the slate, and he is fighting a guy who is a great wrestler that doesn’t use it for anything other than to keep fights standing. Cody has a wildly concerning chin as well though, so I think a Figgy knockout is well within the realm of possibility, I just don’t believe the score that we would need from someone this high up the slate comes with it. My expectation is for this fight to end inside the distance, but I feel more comfortable punting on Garbrandt for that than I do rostering Figgy at $9100.

 

FINAL THOUGHT

I am beyond excited to see this card this week, and to be perfectly honest I wouldn’t give half a shit how this slate turns out for DFS. There were lots of people saying this wasn’t that great, that 299 was better, and a few even more outlandish takes. This is the best card that the UFC has ever put on and it’s not even close. Let’s enjoy one when we get it, they give us plenty to not be excited about already. 

Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.

Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.

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