UFC Vegas 86 brought some semblance of profit back into the mix, but it was more so due to everyone being wrong rather than me being right. Thankfully I stacked the main event which saved my cash lineups. Obviously it wasn’t ideal to have Pyfer in there, but he was around 80% owned in all of my cash contests, so it really didn’t hurt that badly. My tournament entry was a different story, but I only enter one of these a week so it doesn’t kill me when I finish near the back of the pack as I did this past week. On the bright side this week seems much more straightforward than the last few weeks have been, plus the more casual players come out in droves for the pay-per-view events which all but guarantee cash game wins.
For UFC 298 we are going to the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. While this slate looks amazing compared to the last few we have been given, it actually is nothing compared to the ones coming up. The prelims start at 6pm est and several young prospects the UFC is cultivating, and is capped off with a ranked Women’s strawweight matchup between Amanda Lemos and Mackenzie Dern. The main card is set to begin at 10pm est and is pretty much loaded top to bottom with exciting fights and features Alexander Volkanovski defending his title against Ilia Topuria.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
The article is written for cash games and single entry tournaments, however you may see a large field or MME reference from time to time. It is split into three very distinctive sections. The first is the “Lock Them In” section which features the fighters in the salary range that I think will make a perfect addition to cash and small-field single entry lineups. The second section of the article is “Roll The Dice” which provides information on fighters that could be great for your lineup but come with added risk that make them more comfortable for GPP lineups than cash lineups. The third and final section of the article is “Stay Away” and that is exactly what it sounds like, these fighters should be avoided at all cost for single entry tournaments and cash games. You may still want to use them for larger tournaments however, and potentially for mass multiple entry contests as well where complete fades are less frequent.
LOCK THEM IN
RINYA NAKAMURA – $9600 (-1200)
Take a look at that betting line. That tells the entire story here. Rinya Nakamura is one of the most coveted Asian prospects that the UFC has coming up, and to this point he has shown us exactly why. He will be fighting Carlos Vera here on short notice making his UFC debut after being featured on TUF 31. Nakamura should be able to win this fight however he wants it, and for cash games that makes him a no brainer. The questionable thing would be tournaments in my opinion.
In his last fight Nakamura only scored around 85 points in a three round decision where he seemed to be exceptionally comfortable just staying safe both in the striking and when he had control on the ground. Obviously a performance like that doesn’t pay off a $9600 salary. That is where my worry comes from when it comes to tournaments, but ultimately he should probably be the go to play for small-field single-entry contests. When it comes to the larger contests with multiple entries I would probably recommend being under the field a bit on him and taking a chance with a pivot to someone that is less expensive.
ROLL THE DICE
OBAN ELLIOT – $9300 (-310)
Oban Elliot is making his official UFC debut in this contest against Val Woodburn who is getting his first UFC fight on a full camp. Oban Elliot is pretty heavily favored here, slightly over three to one, and I think I completely understand why. Looking at tape he just looks so much cleaner to me than Woodburn. Because this fight is also favored to end inside the distance, I believe that makes Oban Elliot someone worth taking a shot on in tournaments. When it comes to cash though, no need to even try, just take the “sure thing” of spending up to Rinya Nakamura.
IAN GARRY – $9100 (-235)
I have been a notorious Ian Garry hater, and in true hater fashion, I am personally hating again for UFC 298 against Geoff Neal. I do believe that Neal is the better side of this fight for DFS, but it would be wrong to continue down the “fade Ian Garry” path since the majority of his fights actually do produce a good score. If Garry wins this fight I would imagine that this one will too, at least to a certain degree. One thing that is going in favor of rostering Ian here is the shambles that the 9k range is in for this event. I personally will not be using Ian in anything, but there is enough of a possibility here that he produces a good score for it to be irresponsible to not mention him being worth a dice roll.
STAY AWAY
ROBERT WHITTAKER – $9000 (-245)
There is only one fighter that is worth recommending to the world to stay away from here and that is Robert Whittaker. He simply does not score enough on DraftKings to even consider him for anything with many more attractive options both above and below him. His opponent this time out, Paulo Costa, is likely the better play for cash and small-field tournaments because he probably won’t be finished and stands at least a decent chance to actually win the fight.
FINAL THOUGHT
I am excited to be writing about a card with some pop this week. It is a stark contrast to the last three weeks, where the name value has been a bit underwhelming. I sincerely hope that thing go as I expect this week to create a nice little buffer on cash game winnings to go into the bulk of the spring slates.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
