Last week, for UFC 290, we had an amazing event with finishes everywhere. There were a total of four quick-win bonuses as well, which made large field tournaments very interesting. One of our premium members actually missed out on $200,000, and won $75 instead, due to having Dan Hooker (who scored well) instead of Denise Gomes. Hopefully, he entered some small field single-entry contests as well. In those contests that lineup likely would have produced several thousand in winnings.

The results from last week’s suggestions were pretty spot on. The only real surprise was Bo Nickal making the optimal, but that was heavily facilitated by the quick win bonuses that were achieved by multiple low-priced underdogs on the slate. Without those upsets, Nickal’s nearly 128 points wouldn’t have made it. The fade on Yazmin Jauregui and Robert Whittaker proved clutch, and while Taira and Saaiman didn’t make the optimal, their performances went just about how I expected them to.

This week we are back to reality on DraftKings with a $9K salary range that is a bit less crowded. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make it easier to navigate because these fights are razor thin on the UFC Vegas 77 slate. Hopefully, you enjoy this week’s edition of The Chalkboard.

$9??? – JACK DELLA MADDALENA (-500)

Getting a fight for Jack Della Maddalena has proven to be very difficult for the UFC to this point. This time around he will be fighting Bassil Hafez, who will be his third expected opponent in the last two weeks. There is some money coming in on Hafez as well, which is a bit surprising to me, but people seem to be putting a ton of stock into him fighting Jeremiah Wells to a draw. Maddalena is not Jerimiah Wells though, and this fight will not be close in my opinion.

Jack Della Maddalena is a very impressive striker with pinpoint accuracy and timing. I believe that JDM will stay hidden behind his jab and put on a boxing clinic against Bassil Hafez. Hafez may try to get his wrestling going and put Maddalena on his back, but Jack does a good job working back to his feet and the judges don’t really reward empty takedowns much anymore.

When it comes to DraftKings I have some concerns with rostering Jack Della Maddalena in this one. First and foremost, his salary is almost surely going to be $9700 again this week (if it comes in lower we can re-evaluate) and that is just too much on DraftKings for a fighter with virtually no grappling upside. Secondly, Hafez has never been finished in his career. That means that he is probably going to take a striking beating for three rounds and that just doesn’t score amazingly well on DraftKings. Certainly not enough to justify the $9700 price tag that I am expecting. For me, JDM is a total fade for this slate.

$9600 – AZAT MAKSUM (-415)

One of the most exciting aspects of the upcoming UFC Vegas 77 slate is the debut of Azat Maksum. Maksum is an undefeated fighter from Kazakhstan who is bringing with him an insane level of expectations. I have to admit that I have fully indulged in the Kool-Aid on Maksum, and my level of expectations is definitely through the roof as well.

The most interesting thing about Azat Maksum is that he is very capable in all aspects of mixed martial arts. Maksum can wrestle, grapple, and is also very capable of striking with his opponents as well. He will likely need some of the later this week as he is facing UFC veteran Tyson Nam, who is a very capable striker with huge power in his hands. Tyson Nam also has great takedown defense, which means this one will likely stay standing for the duration of the fight.

I personally feel incredibly confident in Maksum to get the victory here, and if I had to pick a method I believe it will be by knockout in the late first, or possibly, the second round. Tyson Nam looks great until he doesn’t and that is more or less what I expect to see here from him as well. I think the beginning of the fight goes somewhat even, and then Maksum will find the shot that ends the fight on Nam’s aging chin. I will be using Azat Maksum in quite literally every type of contest this week, but I could see the benefit of moving off of him for big tournaments where you will need to be extra different. I don’t believe his score will be overly amazing, but I do believe he is the safest 100 points on the slate.

$9400 – EVAN ELDER (-300)

I have tried to wrap my head around this line several times, but I just can’t. I think this fight is so much closer than -300, and the idea of spending $9400 on Evan Elder is one that I am struggling with. I have not completely written it off, however, so let’s jump into why I am even considering it.

Evan Elder is a very tough fighter, who only has one loss by finish in his entire career which was a doctor stoppage in the third round of his last fight against Nazim Sadykhov. He is very well-rounded and has strength in his wrestling to lean on. Unfortunately, he seems to be struggling to wrestle in the UFC, instead opting to stand and strike with his opponents. He does revert back to wrestling when the striking doesn’t seem to be going his way, but by that time he is taking empty shots and not being rewarded for his efforts.

I will likely take the shot on Evan Elder for tournaments because if he does get his wrestling going early then he could put up a monster score, but hoping for that feels a bit juvenile to me knowing that he has a 12% takedown accuracy since entering the UFC. His opponent, Genaro Valdez, could also easily get takedowns of his own with Elder’s 28% takedown defense and I would also have to give Valdez the striking advantage as well. I will steer clear of Elder in cash based solely on the reason that he cannot be trusted to wrestle.

$9300 – VIKTORIYA DUDAKOVA (-191)

In the We Want Picks world this fight has become one of the most polarizing fights on the slate. We have Angelo, Artem, and myself on the Dudakova side of this fight. Then we have Jacob on the opposite side making her opponent, Istela Nunes, his lock of the week. In Jacob’s defense, plenty of people seem to be seeing this the same way as this line has moved heavily in the direction of Istela Nunes. 

Personally, I am on the Dudakova side less for things that I see in Viktoriya Dudakova, and more so for the things that I have seen from Istela Nunes. I agree with Jacob that Dudakova has sloppy grappling, in fact, she seems to lose the first grappling exchange of almost all of her fights. I also agree that she has fairly sloppy striking, which could be a bit of a problem against such a clean striker like Nunes.

Here is where I fall off of the wagon. Istela Nunes is just too light in the ass to actually hurt anyone. Even if she drops someone they almost instantly recover and come back to take over the fight in the later rounds as Nunes gasses herself out from all of the active pillow fist striking. That is likely what happens here in my opinion, and the success rate difference between the first and second grappling exchange in a fight for Dudakova is very wide.

I expect that Dudakova will get her grappling going after she makes it through the initial surge from Nunes in round one and take over producing one of the best wrestling and grappling-heavy scores in this salary range. I personally would use her for cash and tournament entries, but her ownership might end up being low based on the line movement, and that can be very risky for your cash entries.

$9200 – MELSIK BAGHDASARYAN (-159)

Melsik Baghdasaryan is coming off a surprising loss to Josh Culibao where he submitted quickly after being on the wrong end of the scramble. Melsik is a very accurate striker who has maintained not only great striking offense but also great striking defense in his brief time in the UFC. The betting line has been a bit suspect, however, moving in the other direction.

His opponent in this fight is Tucker Lutz who is currently on a two-fight skid with his last fight ending on the losing end of a submission as well. Lutz is not nearly the polished striker that Melsik is, but he has shown flashes of power in his hands prior to the UFC and is surely the more accomplished wrestler in this fight. That is where the concern comes in for me. There are too many factors implying that Melsik doesn’t end this fight inside the distance for my liking.

Melsik’s power is questionable at best, with his only UFC knockout coming from a well-timed kick and not from his hands. Tucker Lutz is a tough guy that hasn’t been knocked out since 2015. Lutz also will hold the wrestling advantage here which can slow the fight down and limit the score of his opponent if he can get it going. For me, this is a clear dog or pass situation when it comes to DraftKings. Melsik just wouldn’t score well enough in my opinion to deserve a roster spot in any type of contest.

$9100 – MELQUIZAEL COSTA (-205)

We have once again identified the value hunter spot. For $9100 you can get a fighter who is more favored to win at this point than the $9300 or $9200 fighter with Melquizael Costa. That being said, there is an awful lot of confidence in this young man despite us only having seen him take a start-to-finish ass beating from Thiago Moises.

That being said, this fight should be plenty more in Costa’s wheelhouse with an opponent in Austin Lingo that will prefer to keep the fight standing for the majority of the contest. Lingo is a boxer primarily, and a pretty decent one at that, but doesn’t really seem to be extremely proficient in the rest of the mixed martial arts bag. From a style perspective, this should fit nicely for Costa’s ‘Chute To Box’ style and provide opportunities for a big win for Costa. 

While I do recognize that there is potential here for a great performance by Costa, I am not truly convinced it will materialize. We just haven’t seen enough from Costa in my opinion, and Lingo is one of those guys that may surprise you. If we are comparing the only thing that we can compare between these two apples to apples, it would be their time in LFA. Costa went 1-1 and Lingo went 6-0. The exciting fighter surely is Costa, but Lingo may be the better fighter.

I would steer clear for cash unless it's Lingo filling a salary-saver spot, and for tournaments, I would likely go Lingo as well unless it is a multiple-entry contest where both fighters deserve some exposure. 

FINAL THOUGHT

This slate feels like it will be made in the 8K range. There is just so much value in that range, and when you couple it with the overwhelming amount of live dogs, I expect this optimal lineup to be very interesting. 

The one thing I am virtually certain of is that this 9K range is weak and aside from Maksum who everyone will own for all contests, the best thing going is taking a shot on a female fighter who will be in direct competition with Jacob’s lock of the week this event.

Remember, you are not obligated to enter a bunch of contests you don’t feel good about this week. You can just play cash, take a small tournament shot, and keep your bankroll healthy until you head into a week where you feel comfortable entering your normal amount of entries. That is what I would strongly suggest because this slate is going to be loaded with dogs that take wins, high-priced fighters that underperform, and who knows what other fuckery may come down the line come fight day.