We had quite the week last week here on We Want Picks. The website went down for about three full days and the mood behind the scenes was less than positive. Ultimately we were able to recover the website and all was right in the world, but that caused us to miss out on this article last week. So let’s jump right into breaking down the top range of this slate through a DraftKings lens.
This time around we headed around the world for UFC Singapore, which is taking place at the Singapore Indoor Stadium in Singapore, Singapore. The card is headlined with legend level featherweight action between Max Holloway and Chan Sung Jung. The rest of the card is somewhat lackluster but I would be lying if I didn’t acknowledge there are a few fights that I am looking forward to. The downside for American’s is that the prelims start at 5am est, and the main card at 8am est. It is rare that we get the rough end of the start times, so we just have to take that one on the chin.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
UFC Singapore has six fighters in the 9k salary range, and with some of the matchups on this slate it could get a bit tricky navigating things up there. I believe I have a solid read on how to attack the 9k range based on contest type though, so here is to hoping that I can maintain my 99.7% right about everything percentage. Below you will find my opinions on the slate, let’s dive in.
$9700 – MAX HOLLOWAY (-800)
It feels like Max Holloway has been around for so long, and then you realize that he is only 31 years old. Holloway has given us some of the best fights in UFC history and is just entering what most fighters would consider their athletic prime. He does have a lot of miles on him despite being fairly young, but it hasn’t seemed to slow him down one bit. This week he is fighting UFC legend, The Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung.
Holloway has some of the best hands that the UFC has ever seen when it comes to his technical striking, but he does seem to lack the power to put away some of the more resilient fighters in the division. Holloway would almost never be described as a wrestler, but he does manage to get takedowns here and there in his fights as well, however I doubt that becomes a thing in this fight between two very active strikers.
Holloway’s opponent this week is The Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung, who is a legend within the UFC featherweight division for his powerful striking. Unfortunately for him, it has been somewhat tough sledding for him lately losing two of his last three. Those losses did come against top level competition, but that is exactly what he will be facing in this match up.
Max Holloway and Chan Sung Jung are both cash game locks in my opinion. I could also definitely understand using either in tournaments as well, either Max for his volume upside, or Chan Sung Jung as a punt in small-field single-entry contests. That being said, I would be more likely to punt with The Korean Zombie than I would be to roster Max in a contest like that. I believe it is possible for Max to get a finish here in the third round or so, and I believe that will limit his volume, which in turn would produce a smaller score than most people would be expecting from Max Holloway in my opinion.
$9600 – RINYA NAKAMURA (-800)
The next fighter, coming in at $9600, is Japanese prospect Rinya Nakamura. Nakamura is making his second official appearance in a UFC fight here and he will be fighting Fernie Garcia who is coming off of back to back losses. Nakamura is the future of the Japanese market, and that is important to keep in mind if you know anything about how the UFC uses and builds specific fighters to open up markets.
Rinya Nakamura is a grapple heavy wrestler who rarely makes mistakes chasing something that isn’t there. His control game is very impressive and can grind out wins or find submissions with about the same level of perfection. If there was one “hole” in his game, it would be his striking which tends to be more power over precision that can sometimes get him into trouble. Rinya’s opponent, Fernie Garcia, is somewhat known as a wrestler himself, but you wouldn’t really know it watching his fights. Garcia should get ran through here, and I don’t believe it will be particularly close.
Nakamura is a great play for any contest this week. Fitting both him and Max Holloway in a cash lineup will depend on who is played down the slate due to their incredible salaries however. In tournaments I would 100% prioritize Rinya Nakamura over Max Holloway because they should score similar numbers and there will be a $100 savings over Max Holloway to use elsewhere.
$9400 – JJ ALDRICH (-575)
Somewhere in the world there are people that LOVE JJ Aldrich. She seems to get these inflated lines in many of her fights, and to be perfectly honest, I just don’t get it. Aldrich is just one of those women in the UFC that doesn’t move the needle for me in terms of excitement for the card. She is fighting Na Liang in this match up, who I am actually more interested in seeing than I am JJ Aldrich.
Aldrich is a well-rounded fighter who is good nearly everywhere, but not great in any one specific discipline. She is not terribly athletic, nor abnormally physically gifted in any area. Yet here she is a nearly six to one favorite. The math is not adding up for me. I do believe that she wins this fight, but not because she is good but rather because Na Liang doesn’t have the gas tank to keep the pace she sets early on for longer than a minute or two. Aldrich is not an easy finish so I would thoroughly expect her to weather the early storm from Liang and find a finish sometime in the second round. It could come in the first I suppose, but I think that is more the anomaly outcome. Aldrich’s ability to not be wrestled into the ground is also going to be a key component here, as that would be Na Liang’s only path to an early win in my opinion.
There are numerous people fading JJ Aldrich this week, and I totally get that at $9400. For me I firmly believe she would have a safe floor for cash, but the ownership numbers are likely to exclude her from consideration. When it comes to the tournaments it would likely be the same exclusion for small-field stuff, but she could be one of the sneakiest plays on the slate for large-field contests if she can manage to get that finish in the last half of the first round with a takedown and some ground and pound as Liang tires.
$9200 – ROLANDO BEDOYA (-310)
Rolando Bedoya is making his second appearance in the UFC, and his first with a full camp here against Song Kenan. If you recall, Bedoya stepped up on short notice to fight Khaos Williams to a split decision back in May. In that fight Bedoya actually outstruck Williams 149 significant strikes to William’s 130, and Bedoya landed an amazing 71% clip. The volume was there for sure, and while that was a gutty performance, we were able to see that Khaos Williams has some serious holes in his striking game that allowed Bedoya to compete with him.
Bedoya is a cardio machine based on his last performance, and a very adequate striker. He seems to have good takedown defense as well which should help him through his UFC career, for as long as it lasts. The reality regarding Bedoya is that we really don’t know what he is yet based on just the one fight in the UFC. He could be something for sure just based on his cardio and volume, but he could also just be another fighter who’s name will not be remembered. His opponent in this fight, Song Kenan, is known for his power. We saw the power from Khaos Williams was nothing for Bedoya to deal with though, so it is unlikely that is an issue for him here.
My entire basis on whether or not I will be using Bedoya will be based on his projected ownership. I want to not include him in any cash builds because I am afraid he folds like fresh laundry against a tighter striker like Kenan, but the age difference and reach advantage in Bedoya’s favor lead me to believe that he won’t. When it comes to tournaments I could easily see playing either side of this one, Kenan Song becoming more attractive in larger-field contests.
$9100 – WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA (-224)
If you have seen one Waldo Cortes-Acosta fight you have seen them all at this point. In this fight he is fighting Lukasz Brzeski, who will most likely keep this fight in the Cortes-Acosta preferred realm of striking only. Unfortunately that realm for Waldo seems to only lead to decision wins and that just doesn’t cut the mustard here at $9100.
Cortes-Acosta is an athletic striker that will lunge forward with straight ones and twos, but doesn’t really make much happen behind that. One strike, two strikes, in and out. He won’t incorporate any other skill sets, no wrestling, no grappling, not even clinch work in Waldo’s perfect world. That just makes him a dud for anything fantasy related. Of course at heavyweight anything can happen, but until I see it at least once I am not throwing $9100 at a maybe.
Standing across the cage from him will be Lukasz Brzeski, who is a pretty boring striker in his own right, but one that will incorporate leg kicks and clinch work against the fence if he is allowed to. Brzeski doesn’t really have the power to finish Waldo here, but I could definitely see him working the legs and the clinch to make the decision competitive.
I can’t play Waldo Cortes-Acosta, just can’t. I would imagine that his ownership in large tournaments will be so low that he would be an amazing play if he goes out here and does something out of character though. For me, I will use Lukasz Brzeski in cash and small field tournaments as a salary saver. I would be fully expecting a loss from him here, but with the upside of a potential decision win and the floor of not being likely to be finished.
$9000 – GIGA CHIKADZE (-241)
Giga seems to have become the victim of recency bias due to his loss to Calvin Kattar. I don’t really get that because Kattar isn’t a bum and has really solid striking, but people seem to be not loving him here against Alex Caceres who is coming off a great performance which furthers the recency bias in the analysis many are offering.
Giga is a tactful and powerful Georgian striker, and while he isn’t known for wrestling I believe that is something that is in the blood of people born in that part of the world to the point where they are at least serviceable. On the other side of the cage is someone who is a bit slower in my opinion, certainly less powerful, but should hold some kind of a grappling advantage if the fight ends up in tight in any fashion.
Both of these fighters have only lost one fight in their last eight fights, so on paper I understand why people have kept this line much tighter that I would have assumed it would have been a while ago had this fight taken place then. I think Giga is going to be one of the lower owned fighters in the 9k range and that could hurt his viability for cash contests, but assuming the ownership is there I would not hesitate to use him in cash because it is much more likely that he finishes Caceres than it is Caceres finishes him. For tournaments both will have plenty of viability, but it would be somewhat risky score wise, because this could easily become a three round decision with how defensively sound both fighters are.
FINAL THOUGHT
Full disclosure, I won’t even be waking up to see the prelims here. I will get my ass out of bed for the main card though. The main motivation for that is to put snarky comments in the WWP group text when Erin Blanchfield runs through Talia Santos – if she doesn’t I will just pretend I stayed asleep and didn’t watch. The high end salary range this week is pretty easy to navigate in my opinion for the contests that I play though, and I like when that happens.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter, or you can shoot me questions as well if you like @WebGuyWWP. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
