There were definitely some highs and lows from last week’s Chalk Board article. First and foremost prioritizing Nakamura over Holloway was a miss, but the reasoning on why I suggested that was spot on. Holloway finished early and that limited his volume and his score, just like I suggested it would. Unfortunately Nakamura laid on his opponent for three rounds without much action. The JJ Aldrich call was pretty spot on right down to the round I expected it to happen in as well. Finally the Bedoya prediction of him being way overrated was about as accurate as it could get, even recommending Song over him in larger tournaments. Time to do it all over again, let’s dial in this 9K range!
Another international event is set to take place this weekend at the Accor Arena in Paris, France. The card is headlined with contender heavyweight action between Ciryl Gane and Serghei Spivac. While the rest of the card does have a couple fights on it that most fans will be interested in watching, it is pretty dull beyond that unless you happen to be French. The prelims are set to start at 12pm eastern time, and the main card at 3pm eastern. This is still an unusual start time for those of us in the United States, but it is much more reasonable than last week's event. Personally I will be excited to get back to the United States based events where it is the rest of the world being forced to alter their schedules to watch, sorry not sorry.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
UFC Paris only has three fighters remaining in the 9k salary range after a barrage of fight mix ups and cancellations. To be perfectly honest with you, I don’t really like anyone in the range except maybe one fighter. In my opinion, this slate will be made by your usage of the 8k range, but it will still be important to understand where you line up on the fighters priced above and below that range. Below you will find my opinions on the slate, let’s dive in.
$9400 – JACQUELINE CAVALCANTI (-350)
I want to start this section by expressing just how confused I was to see the salary for Jacqueline Cavalcanti priced at the top of the slate. I assume this has more to do with her opponent, Farah Zairn, but even then it is a bit of a mystery to me. Let’s get into why I am so perplexed about this pricing.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti is a solid prospect born in Brazil and fighting out of Portugal. She is currently sitting at 5-1 professionally, with her one loss coming from a decision loss in the PFL. Most recently she was getting wins in LFA, and now she is being called up to the big show to fight French fighter Farah Zairn.
Cavalcanti looks like she has quite a bit of potential, and is certainly well rounded, but how she pays off at this price tag is questionable at best in my opinion. She is a solid striker that can win over time with volume, but her pure power isn’t exactly terrifying, best I can tell. She will wrestle and grapple here and there, but it isn’t exactly her preferred method of fighting. Her opponent, Farah Zairn is an older fighter (40 years old) who is a striker herself. The issue with Zairn, beyond her age, is that her age is catching up to her. She looks slow, and seems to slow down even more as the fight goes on. That being said, her volume is still there, landing 117 significant strikes in her last fight, a loss to Josiane Nunes.
I could definitely see Cavalcanti getting a late finish in this fight, but unfortunately I believe that is her ceiling, and that just doesn’t pay off $9400. I will be paying attention to ownership heavily for this one, because if Cavalcanti gets high ownership (I don’t believe she will, but stranger things have happened) then she can be played in cash. For tournaments I think there would be some merit in Zarah Fairn being used as a salary saver, especially for small-field single-entry, because I believe she will see the score cards and could possibly just outclass a woman with only six professional fights coming in on short notice.
$9200 – FARID BASHARAT (-355)
At $9200 we have Farid Basharat, who is a very fun fighter that I look forward to seeing each and every time. On the other side of the cage is Kleydson Rodrigues who is very exciting in his own right. There is certainly some hope here for Rodrigues, but I think this is a step down in competition for Farid Basharat.
Farid Basharat is the younger brother of Javid Basharat, and just like his brother Farid Basharat is a very well-rounded and extremely technical fighter. The only question mark here is the output of Farid Basharat, only having landed 58 significant strikes in his official UFC debut against Da’Mon Blackshear. That could have just been a Blackshear thing though as Basharat landed 116 in his contender series fight. In both fights he managed three takedowns. His opponent, Kleydson Rodrigues who is capable of putting on a great pace, but unfortunately has poor striking defense and can be susceptible to takedowns. Those two things combined could spell trouble for Rodrigues in this one, and in my very casual opinion, increases the chances for a great performance from Farid Basharat.
If Farid Basharat is anywhere near 30% ownership he will be in my cash lineups. If he falls short of that number however, then I will likely only roster him in tournaments. I do firmly believe he wins this fight, so I will not be using Rodrigues in anything – but if you play larger field tournaments or multiple entry contests then he could be fairly valuable if he find his way to victory.
$9100 – MORGAN CHARRIERE (-330)
For the final fighter of the 9k range, we have Morgan Charriere. Morgan is a French fighter that is very exciting in every bit of tape I was able to see of him, but it does look like there may be some over excitement that gets him into trouble from time to time as well. His opponent, Manolo Zecchini, is a fast and explosive striker that throws with loads of power in his right.
To be perfectly honest, both of these fighters are not overly impressive in my opinion. They are both exciting, but the furthest thing from reliable. I expect this fight to be a great one to target for tournaments because of how explosive both fighters seem to be in the striking world, and I definitely agree with the betting odds that Morgan Charriere is the clear favorite as I believe he is just a level or two above Zecchini. I am nowhere near confident enough in this outcome to do anything behind throwing them into a tournament lineup though.
This is going to be a solid fight to target for tournaments as a whole in my opinion, but with the weakness of the 9k range, that makes Morgan a bit more appealing to me. To be clear however, I will be avoiding both of these fighters for cash unless ownership comes back significantly higher than I expect it to. The upper 8k range should keep it somewhat low though at first glance.
FINAL THOUGHT
Like I stated in the first part of this article, this 9k range is just not that attractive. I will be focusing on my favorite plays in the 8k range and then see what I can make happen in the 9k range depending on contest type and ownership. Ultimately I believe this slate will be won or lost in the 8k range anyway with the depth that is present there.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter, or you can shoot me questions as well if you like @WebGuyWWP. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.