The UFC Vegas 83 version of this article was about as accurate as you could have asked for. The only slight error was to prioritize Taira over Song Yadong, but that was just a single digit point difference that shouldn’t have mattered much in the grand scheme of things for the contest types that this article is written for. Making Hyun Sung Park the locked-in fighter across all contest types worked out great as he was the highest scoring fighter on the slate, and fading Melquizael Costa was spot on as he was knocked out in the first round.
This week is the last event of 2023, and as I stated a couple articles ago, the last DraftKings Chalkboard article that will be released free to the public. From this point forward we are working aggressively at increasing what is offered behind the paywall and this article has been pretty accurate week over week, to the point that we believe it will add immense value to our premium offering. For the last event being covered with this article we are gearing up for UFC 296 which is taking place in Las Vegas, Nevada at the T-Mobile Arena. The main card here is stacked beyond belief and the undercard is offering up some fairly decent mid-level prospects for us to enjoy. Navigating the fighters at the top of the salary bracket is the task today, so let’s break it down.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
Due to the overwhelming amount of fighters in the 9k salary range this week, we will be splitting them up a bit differently than normal. This article is also in its last days, we will be finishing the year out with it, and then it will be moving behind the paywall with the rest of our incredible DraftKings fantasy offering.
LOCK THEM IN
SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV – $9700 (-650)
A ton of people love Rakhmonov’s opponent here, Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. I get it, fan favorite, squeaky clean image, and it is wildly fun to root for those types of fighters. That is especially true when they have given us years upon years of entertainment. That being said, Shavkat Rakhmonov is different. Shavkat is ready to accelerate himself towards the top of the rankings, and is the much more well rounded fighter here. The betting line is easily the best value on the slate, even when considering the inflated price tag. For me Shavkat will be locked into every contest type as I see him keeping the 100% finish rate alive and I expect it to be done on the ground while racking up fantasy points.
PADDY PIMBLETT – $9400 (-295)
I will be starting this write up out by letting you guys know that I truly hope that Paddy Pimblett is beaten into a stupor by his opponent, Tony Ferguson. Unfortunately I don’t truly believe that happens, but because I want it to I will be leaving Pimblett out of my cash lineups. I will however be locking him into the tournaments I enter because I think that Tony Ferguson is a shell of his former self and will likely get finished here by the much younger fighter with less miles on him.
ROLL THE DICE
DUSTIN JACOBY – $9100 (-300)
Dustin Jacoby is fighting Alonzo Menifield at UFC 296. This should be the exact fight that Jacoby would prefer it to be, which is a straight kickboxing affair. Menifield might have a power advantage. I say this because I think that while Menifield is powerful, he is also one of the most overrated guys in the UFC when it comes to people estimating his power while Dustin Jacoby is one of the most criminally underrated in the power department. Jacoby will surely have the technical advantage, and I think he is also the tougher fighter. I expect the ownership to be on the lower side and while I probably won’t be rostering him in any of my contests, I think Jacoby could be a sneaky good fighter to play if we get a ceiling performance from him in larger tournaments.
CODY GARBRANDT – $9000 (-190)
This fight is the biggest crap shoot on the slate in my opinion. This fight could be the fight to target with a quick finish in either direction, or this fight could be a snooze fest that was completely fade worthy. I bounced back and forth between moving Cody Garbrandt to the stay away section several times, but chose to leave him in roll the dice because he could finish his opponent, Brian Kelleher, fairly easily as well. Personally I am not confident enough to use Cody Garbrandt in the contests that I play, but just like Jacoby, I believe he could end up one of the sneakiest tournament choices in the larger contests.
STAY AWAY
IAN GARRY – $9500 (-380)
There is a ton of unpacking to do here for me. First and foremost, because I think it is important for anyone reading this to know, I am about as far removed from being an Ian Garry fan as a guy can get. I don’t like a single thing about this guy as a person from what I have seen from him. That being said, his salary here is a bit high for my taste. For him to pay this off he would need a first round finish with tons of activity, or a quick win bonus. I don’t believe he can make either happen in this fight against Vicente Luque, who is a massive step up in competition for him, and who should have the advantage everywhere but striking at distance. I am staying away from Ian Garry in everything, and will be rolling with Luque in most contest types because I believe in the punt there at only $6700.
RANDY BROWN – $9200 (-260)
Randy Brown should win this fight against Muslim Salikhov, but the problem is that neither of them are very prolific finishers. Brown scores pretty poorly in fact in most of his wins, and Salikhov is not the type of fighter that is going to get Brown to turn up the pace. I expect this fight to go the distance, with most of the action taking place at distance, and leaving the winning fighter scoring around 80 points. For $9200, I just can’t do that in any contest type.
FINAL THOUGHT
So there it is! That should be the most comprehensive and accurate assessment of the 9K salary range that you will find on the internet – maybe not, I have been wrong before and will be wrong again, but I am pretty confident in it. The year coming to an end is bittersweet because I am looking forward to the time off and holidays with the family, but I also will miss weekend fights terribly. Make sure to sign up for premium so you can see the newly revamped DFS presentation that will be coming your way for 2024 on the DraftKings side of things.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter, or you can shoot me questions as well if you like @WebGuyWWP. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
