Simply put, I made the 9K range on the UFC London slate my bitch. All three fighters that I suggested fading from that range went on to be terrible plays, so you are welcome for that. I highly doubt we get any praise for it though, this niche seems to be one where people can benefit from your advice most weeks and then hyper-focus on the week where you missed or made a poor decision. Regardless, we press on.
This event coming up is for the cartoonish BMF Title, which I really wish they would have scrapped the minute someone brought the idea up. We will be privileged to watch the rematch between two of the more exciting fighters in the lightweight division, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. The rest of the slate has plenty of fighters that should add to the excitement, even if the altitude of Salt Lake City, Utah turns the event into a cardio shit show.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on any statements made by me in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is on you. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
This slate is somewhat normal in the $9K range compared to the last few, so hopefully I don’t have too many slip-ups this week. Below you will find my opinions on the slate, let’s dive in.
$9500 – BOBBY GREEN (-400)
Welcome to the mental health fight of the week. Bobby “King” Green will be fighting Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson in this match-up. Bobby Green has proven to be a bit flamboyant, awkward in the cage from time to time, and somewhat delusional in his media appearances. On the other side of the cage is the king of delusions, Tony Ferguson. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn’t rely on crazy, but when both sides are bringing their own crazy we might be entering uncharted waters.
Bobby Green is an unorthodox boxer that fights with his hands low near his hips and has a flair for in-cage antics. Green is also fairly well-rounded and has been known to shoot for takedowns from time to time as well. Bobby is defensively sound despite the strange style and boasts a 62% striking defense. The most concerning thing about Bobby Green in this fight is how unfavorable he is generally viewed by the judges which can be evidenced by his last four decision losses where he almost doubled, or did double, his opponent’s striking output. Another concern here would be the price point, as Bobby Green isn’t really a finisher which can be evidenced by only having one finish win since 2013 – which covers his last 19 fights.
On the other side of the cage, we have Tony Ferguson. Everyone seems to love Ferguson, but I would argue was overrated even during his “legendary” run of fighting top-tier guys. Many of those opponents were at the end of their careers or had one foot out of the UFC. Even if you believe that Tony was one of the best during that time, he is certainly not the same fighter today. He has taken an enormous amount of damage in his last handful of fights, been finished in three of them, and probably looked his best against Nate Diaz who was on his way out as well…and still got finished in that one too. I personally do not believe that Ferguson has anything left for this sport, and if you need a visual on why I think that, take a look at his last few pre-fight routines while he is being announced. The man is a shell of his former self.
I think that Bobby Green can be a very solid play in cash depending on ownership. For those that don’t know, ownership is your friend in cash games and can protect you against a poor scoring performance. I will probably be ignoring Bobby Green for tournaments though because I think there are several better options available that will also save a few bucks. If Bobby Green gets a finish it would be off the strength of how washed up Ferguson is, but I still think that there is enough of a question around Green’s capability to get the finish that it isn’t worth risking for tournaments where that score is much more important.
$9400 – MIRANDA MAVERICK (-255)
Miranda Maverick is without question my favorite play in this salary range when you are considering not only the ceiling of the fighter but also the safety of their floor as well. She is fighting Priscila Cachoeira, who has been on a bit of a run lately in the UFC, winning four of her last five, and three of those wins by knockout.
The last time Miranda Maverick fought everyone at We Want Picks was on her opponent, and it was all for the same reason. We all felt that she would be out-wrestled by Jasudavicious, and she was. That being said, Miranda Maverick is a good young fighter with a bright future ahead of her in my opinion. Maverick’s striking is solid, although doesn’t come with the most power, and her offensive wrestling is great. Miranda is a solid grappler as well should the fight take place on the ground or in the clinch. The ultimate deciding factor for me in this fight though is her toughness, Maverick has not been finished in her career, even when she found herself on the bottom of Erin Blanchfield seven times in one fight.
Priscila Cachoeira is Maverick’s opponent in this fight, and she has been on a bit of a tear in her last five, only having lost one of them via submission in the first round to Gillian Robertson. The issue that will be present here for Cachoeira is that her power is really her only path to victory. She marches forward, hence the name “Zombie Girl”, and throws with power every chance she gets. This is going to be a problem in my opinion. Miranda Maverick does not have chin issues, and will almost certainly time takedowns on the shots that Cachoeira loads up on.
I will not be entertaining any of Priscila Cachoeira in my lineups this week, I just don’t see it. Miranda Maverick is the better fighter literally everywhere except power, and since she has never had any chin issues before, I have a hard time even entertaining that she will this time around. This is short notice for Maverick, which is the only slight concern on my end, but I trust her to be one of those fighters that is always ready. When Miranda Maverick wins she scores around, or over, 100 points every single time. She will be in my cash and tournament lineups.
$9300 – JAKE MATTHEWS (-255)
As a last-minute addition to the $9K range, we have Jake Matthews. Matthews was originally scheduled to fight Miguel Baeza, which I think would have been an easier fight for him personally. His new opponent is Darrius Flowers from LFA on short notice, and while Flowers doesn’t have the same level of experience as Baeza, I think his skill set is a much bigger threat to Matthews.
Jake Matthews is a veteran fighter with a very well-rounded skill set. Matthews tends to be on the lower side of the volume metric but remains proficient with solid striking defense and a positive striking differential. He mixes in takedowns as needed, averaging almost 2 per fifteen minutes, but does tend to struggle with takedown attempts coming back at him. Over the course of his 17 UFC fights, he has only achieved one knockout against a very chiny Andre Fiahlo. That is a bit of a concern here in my opinion, but could be negated by the altitude if his opponent’s cardio is not prepared for the elevation. The plus side for finishes with Jake Matthews when it comes to finishes is that he has 7 wins in his career by submission, but more on that in the next paragraph.
Darrius Flowers is coming in on short notice from LFA, and if I had to describe this man in one word it would be “explosive”. Flowers has great power, decent speed, and can also generate good drive in his wrestling for takedowns. The concern that I have with that is whether or not those takedown attempts and loading up on power affect his cardio in Salt Lake City in a negative way more quickly than he has prepared for.
This one is a tough call in my opinion, everything in me wants to take the shot on Flowers here, but ultimately I cannot definitively state that I believe he will win. What I can say is that I wouldn’t shy away from exposure to this fight in larger field tournaments, but for single entry or cash, I plan on steering clear. I just don’t have enough confidence in Flowers to go over the field on him, and I don’t have enough faith in Matthews achieving a good enough score to justify his price tag. They both certainly could have some merit though under the right circumstances.
$9200 – GABRIEL BONFIM (-312)
If not for Ismael Bonfim just completely ruining my DraftKings weekend a few events back I would be signing Gabriel Bonfim’s name from the rooftops. I think he is going to come in here and absolutely handle Trevin Giles, but Giles presents a few challenges that make me wrangle my excitement back in for Gabriel Bonfim.
Bonfim is the total package in my opinion. He is extremely solid on the feet and one of the most exciting grappling prospects in the UFC in my opinion. I do not expect that the elevation creates much of a problem for him, and I think he finishes this fight in spectacular fashion. In fact, if I was a betting man I would choose ITD here as all four of Giles losses in the UFC have come by finish. Two by knockout and two by submission.
Trevin Giles is (or was?) a police officer along with his MMA career. That leads me to believe that his cardio will be in line here, so the decision really just comes down to skillset differences between the two fighters. Giles has a phenomenal jab, and enough athleticism to get the job done against most wrestlers or grapplers. That being said, Bonfim is a different level of grappler in my opinion and I believe Giles only real chance in this fight is to hide behind his jab and take his chances on a boring decision going his way.
I will have Bonfim heavily represented in my tournament lineups but I am skeptical enough after seeing his brother lose to keep him out of cash lineups. I expect a score of around 100 points here with either a first or second-round finish. If it does get extended and sees the scorecards (which I find unlikely) then I will just live with my decision.
$9000 – ROMAN KOPYLOV (-200)
This is the hardest fight to predict in the $9K range as far as I am concerned. On one side we have Roman Kopylov who is a very highly decorated striker and has the UFC experience in this matchup. On the other side, we have Claudio Ribeiro, who is a bit more of a well-rounded fighter than Kopylov in my opinion, but tends to be sloppy and only has a UFC win over Joseph Holmes – who is not exactly the poster boy of high-level competition…don’t beat me up Joe.
Roman Kopylov is a good striker with elite takedown defense, so the likelihood of this fight staying standing is pretty good. The one area where it appears Kopylov may be at a deficit is in the power department. He does have some knockouts in the UFC but they are more so by volume than overwhelming power, and that may be a problem for him here considering his opponent. One red flag for me when it comes to Kopylov is the fact that he was outstruck by Albert Duraev.
His opponent here is Claudio Ribeiro, who has had a bit of an underwhelming start to his UFC career taking the loss in his debut and then taking two rounds to beat a journeyman like Joseph Holmes. That being said he should have the power advantage here and as long as those loaded-up punches and failed takedown attempts don’t suck the life from him at the altitude in Salt Lake City, I think there may be some concern here for Kopylov backers.
I don’t personally feel that there are any true fades in the $9K range this week, but Kopylov would be someone that I have concerns with putting into anything where I appreciate safety. So no cash entries with Kopylov for me, and no small-field single-entry contests with Kopylov for me. While I don’t play large-field contests or multiple-entry stuff personally, that would be a great home for some Kopylov entries just in case he gets the finish because I expect him to be on the lower side of ownership this weekend in this range.
FINAL THOUGHT
I am beyond pumped up for the UFC 291 event and I think that barring anything wild, I have a fairly decent read on the top of the slate. If those few fighters from the top perform in the way that I expect them to, that just leaves me to decipher the middle of the slate, which is always the most difficult task but is a lot easier than trying to piece the whole thing together.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter, or you can shoot me questions as well if you like @WebGuyWWP. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
