Contender Series 2024 has saved some of the best for last, as the next three cards are great. Unfortunately my predictions last week didn't go well which was quite disheartening. I am hoping to bounce back this week. Week 8 has some big time prospects on the card in nearly every fight so I am really looking forward to it.

DIYAR NURGOZHAY (9-0) vs. BARTOSZ SZEWCZYK (8-2-1) – Light Heavyweight

I went into tape study expecting to pick Diyar as he is a prospect with a lot of eyes on him. I have to admit that I was quite disappointed with what I saw. He looks to be quite a small light heavyweight at 6'0″, and a lot of his size doesn't look to be coming from muscle. He looks a lot better on paper than he does on film. He has a round 1 KO win over Emiliano Sordi which is pretty impressive but in that fight Sordi didn't like the fighter I remember winning the PFL tournament in 2019. Sordi was rushing in with his chin in the air and Diyar was trying to catch him with take downs but wasn't able to get them. Prior to his Sordi win, he has a win over Magomed Magomedov but looking a little bit further into Magomedov shows that he accepted the fight on short notice up 4 weight classes (he was a lightweight). In that fight we get to see Diyar's wrestling but it's against an opponent who found a passion for pizza in his time away from the sport. I don't think Diyar's striking is bad, but he doesn't offer much on the feet. He mostly rushes forward trying to land hooks. Bartosz is a fighter the UFC is familiar with, as I believe he has been offered a short notice fight in the UFC before but turned it down for some reason. He is a big guy for weight class and will likely look a weight class above Diyar. He is 6'4″ but isn't a slim 6'4″. He is a striker. His style is somewhat odd as he doesn't look like he throws with a lot of power. He puts a lot of volume out there but it doesn't look like he is putting 100% behind his shots. That likely explains why he has many close decision wins and losses. He uses his range pretty well, fighting behind a jab and throwing low kicks. His body kicks are great and in his rematch with Marcin Lazarz he started landing the body kick in round 1, and eventually landed a perfect shot on the liver that finished Lazarz in round 3. I think Bartosz also has the cardio advantage here. He throws pretty high volume and didn't look super tired in his fights that were going 3 rounds. On the other hand Diyar looks like he starts to gas at the end of round 2. Against Andreistev he had absolutely nothing left in the tank in rounds 3, 4, and 5. This fight comes down to whether or not Diyar can get the take down early. He has strong top control but is going to need to get the fight down to use it and as the fight goes on he will get tired. I wasn't able to see Bartosz defend too many take downs recently as it looks like he has fought a lot of strikers, but he did show decent initial take down defense against Lazarz. Diyar is going to have to chase Bartosz around trying to close the distance to get the wrestling going, but I think Bartosz can keep the fight at range using his foot work and jab which are solid for the heavy weight class. I am not sure what the odds are for this fight as I write this but Bartosz could be a big underdog as only 15% of users are picking him on Tapology.

Pick: Bartosz Szewczyk by decision. Low confidence.

ALBERTO MONTES (9-1) vs. CARLOS CALDERON (6-2) – Featherweight

Going to sound a bit negative here but neither guy impressed me when I looked into this fight. It is a mirror match up between two grapplers who are both pretty big for the weight class. That especially applies to Calderon who is a massive featherweight. I believe Calderon has accepted this fight on short notice. Robbie Ring was the original opponent for Montes but I don't think he ever agreed to the fight as he was still promoting another fight of his taking place in November recently. Nonetheless, I know that Montes has had a full training camp. Calderon looks very lost on the feet. In his LFA fight he starts swinging in a brawl and gets dropped pretty badly. He rushes forward with his chin in the air nearly every fight. To his credit he is a very slick grappler. He looks for submissions at any opportunity and can be dangerous off of his back. He can get a bit too willing to be on his back though as he will accept bottom position and allow his opponents to take him down. Montes is somewhat similar. I wasn't super impressed by Montes' striking but he does have great kicks which he throws very regularly. I don't like the fact that he can get backed up easily and his fight against Ira Lukowsky was a big red flag as for the whole fight he is getting backed up and hurt on the feet – aside from a lot of clinch moments. Aside from the kicks I don't think he has much else on the feet as his boxing doesn't look great. For being a grappler, Montes doesn't shoot for a lot of take downs. This is just a hard fight to pick and 96% of people picking Montes on Tapology genuinely doesn't make sense. Montes looks to be just a bit better, but not by much. If anyone is going to shoot for a take down it will probably be Calderon as I have seen his shoot for take downs before and there is a good chance Montes can catch him with one of his kicks. If that is the case though, Calderon does leave his neck exposed on entries and Montes could threaten the d'arce choke which he has won by a couple of times now.

Pick: Alberto Montes by submission in round 1 or 2. Low confidence.

DAVID MARTINEZ (10-1) vs. XAVIER FRANKLIN (5-0) – Bantamweight

I like this fight a lot more than the other two. This is a fight between two primary strikers. I am very interested in seeing the face offs as Franklin is listed as taller at 5'6″, but I have a feeling Martinez will be the taller fighter in this match up. Martinez is the former Combate Global bantamweight champion. I believe he asked to be released from the promotion a few months ago and has now been granted his DWCS opportunity. He is a talented striker who fights from range well. He has a lot of strikes in his arsenal but mostly fights behind a fast jab and straight kicks (push and teep). He can be low volume as he is an accurate point fighter, but he has a lot of talent and great technique. Xavier Franklin is a bit of the opposite. He has great power but won't be as technical as Martinez. He has mostly fought guys who are much bigger than him so he has experience in fights where he has to close the distance to land big. If anyone has the grappling advantage it likely is Franklin, but I have seen Martinez mixing up some wrestling recently into his fights as well. I think this is a good match up for Martinez even though he is fighting a dangerous opponent. Franklin is listed at 5'6″ and even though he has fought some really tall guys in his career, he does look to be a bit shorter. Martinez has better movement than Franklin and even though will probably be moving backwards due to Franklin's pressure, he should land more often and land cleaner. Martinez doesn't have the most power and I haven't seen a one shot KO from him aside from his wheel kick KO over Zarauz, but he might be able to catch Franklin in the later rounds.

Pick: David Martinez by KO/TKO in round 3. Medium confidence.

ABDELLAH ER-RAMY (7-1) vs. TORREZ FINNEY (9-0) – Middleweight

Torrez Finney has been called back to fight Er-Ramy on short notice for his third fight on DWCS and his second fight this season. We learned a lot about Finney in his Week 2 match up against Cam Rowston. He is small for the weight class (a lot smaller than I thought he is), has nothing to offer on the feet, but he can dig deep late into a fight even if he is gassed. In hindsight Rowston was a nightmare match up as he is a tall middleweight with technical striking. I did expect Finney to get the take downs a lot easier than they come though as he did struggle in moments to get the fight down. He fights Abdellah Er-Ramy who is smaller than Rowston, less tehcnical, but definitely has a lot more power. At light heavyweight in his last fight for the PFL he looked a little out of shape but in his prior fights at 185 he looked a lot more physical. His fights were  pretty hard to navigate as I don't think AFL's website exists anymore so I had to watch a  few short replays. It also looks like Er-Ramy has wrestled in some of his older fights which I was able to find on Facebook of all places. I hope Finney doesn't go out there and strike with Er-Ramy because if he does he will get knocked out. I think if he looks to wrestle, the take downs will come much easier than they did in the Rowston fight but I don't know if I can trust him to since he might look for a KO on the feet after Dana White's previous criticism. If Finney looks small against Er-Ramy I wonder if there is any chance at all he can make Welterweight.

Pick: Torrez Finney by KO/TKO in round 1 or 2. Low-medium confidence.

CHRISTIEN SAVOIE (10-1-1) vs. JOCOBE SMITH (8-0) – Welterweight

If Smith loses this fight I will be very surprised. This looks like a lay up for him. Jacobe Smith is a prospect with hype behind him but for good reason. He has a big time wrestling background where he was an all american. He has great athletic gifts as well. As you can imagine his wrestling in MMA looks good as he can chain his take downs together and has strong control on top. His cardio looks great too. In some of his older fights he looked like he might be a bit small for 170 but he looked like he had added a lot of muscle in his most recent fight. His striking has also come along nicely In the past he mostly threw hooks to close the distance but now he is showing great footwork and head movement along with some fast hands. His most recent wins have come by very quick KO, and against Brian Grinnell he showed some scary power as he put Grinnell out cold and it didn't even look like he put too much power behind the punch. I hope he hasn't fallen in love with his hands though as he really is at his best with the wrestling. This is a nightmare match up for Savoie. Savoie is a striker but he isn't very technical, mostly throwing big hooks. He looks to have no wrestling at all either. Aside from a huge KO shot, I don't see Savoie finding much success. Smith is a great prospect who is only getting better. The take downs should come easily in this match up.

Pick: Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO in round 1. High confidence.