Contender Series 2024 Week 6 takes place next week. This isn't the most high level card of the season but it should be the most fun as I am expecting a lot of knock outs. Coming off a somewhat rough Week 5 card where I went 2-2 but my most confident picks won and I think the only bad read I had was on the women's fight where there was no recent tape on Caliari. This is a card in which I have some low confidence picks due to lack of tape on a few of these fighters. Should make for a fun card.

DYLAN MANTELLO (8-3) vs. AHMAD SUHAIL HASSANZADA (11-3) – Lightweight

Both of these guys were on the Contender Series last year and both lost convincingly by finish. I think this is going to be a fun fight as these guys typically go to war, but I don't think that it is “UFC level”. Dylan Mantello is mostly a striker. He can wrestle offensively but it's not the strongest part of his game. He stands tall for lightweight and uses his range well with straight punches and kicks from range. He does often crash forward and in the pocket he does get hit a lot. His take down defense isn't great, but if he gets taken down he can find his feet. My problem with Mantello is that he is slow. This was very much exposed in his DWCS fight last year against Kaynan Kruschewsky (a loss that aged poorly) who I wouldn't even consider to be fast striker. Nate Williams also looked faster than him and was able to land. He does slightly make up for this with good technique, but against fast, powerful strikers I think he could find himself in a lot of trouble. Ahmad Husein Hassanzada is somewhat similar to Mantello. He is pretty tall for the weight class but is definitely more slim. He is very fast on the feet and will definitely be the faster striker in the fight. Although he seems happy to be on the feet I would consider him to be a wreslter as he shoots for take downs pretty often. I don't think he has good striking defense though, and I worry about his chin. He was dropped badly a couple of times by Nazim Sadykhov in his DWCS fight last year, and was dropped by Josh Streaker and Aleko Sagliani in the first round. I think this could be a combination of a bad chin and the fact that he loves to close the distance with his chin in the air with no head movement. I think Hassanzada's best chance to win is to catch Mantello in a submission. Mantello was caught in a bad position and submitted easily by Kaynan Kruschewsky. Hassanzada took advantage of a somewhat similar position in his win against Chasen Blair where he locked up a kneebar very quickly. I think that this fight ends up taking place on the feet though. Although Mantello is slow, he does pick his shots pretty well and has power behind them. Hassanzada loves a brawl and if he looks to scrap it out on the feet with Mantello I think his chin comes second best.

Pick: Dylan Mantello by KO/TKO in round 1. Low confidence.

AARON TAU (8-0) vs. ELIJAH SMITH (6-1) – Bantamweight

New Zealand is not going to like me for this one, as I am going to pick against the kiwi Aaron Tau. Aaaron Tau is a City Kickboxing prospect fighting out of New Zealand. He trained under Dan Hooker at Dan's gym Combat Academy after winning the Dan Hooker Scholarship in 2019. I believe recently he started to spend more time at CKB but I could be wrong about that. You can tell that Dan is his coach because the fight in the exact same way. He holds his arms out pretty high in front of him, stalking his opponents with pressure – Exactly like how Dan fights. But in my honest opinion, he lacks volume and his striking defense in lacking. Paul Loga was landing big shots on him consistently before Tau landed some huge knees and got a finish. Against Shane Parker he is clearly the better striker, controlling the cage at will but also not throwing much volume. The thing about Tau is that he does have huge power despite the low volume and his size. When he throws, he always gets a reaction. He can chew up his opponents legs and get knock outs with his hands and with his knees. But he is also small for bantamweight. He was the smaller fighter in his last two fights which were both at 135 lbs, and against Paul Loga he looked like he is in the wrong weight class. I think in this fight he should actually look to grapple. Tau mixes in the wrestling very well. Because of his power he gets the respect of his opponents which opens up opportunities for him on the ground. His opponent in Elijah Smith who is Gilbert Smith's son. Gilbert Smith was on the The Ultimate Fighter twice but never was awarded a UFC contract, despite fighting on a TUF Finale UFC card once. Elijah is pretty tall for the weight class. He is 5'9″ and fights from range well. He is very fast on the feet and likes to snipe his opponents with straight punches and kicks. On the inside he can land knees and elbows, but he can also get caught. He has been taken down before, but overall I think take down defense is pretty solid as he has beaten some good wrestlers recently. He has one bad loss to Reyes Cortez but that was when he had only two pro fights. In that fight he was finding some success on the feet but caught in the 3rd round. I am picking Smith in this fight as I like his speed and footwork in this fight. Tau mostly pressures forwards, whereas Smith is comfortable fighting moving backwards and sideways. Tau can definitely find the chin of Smith but he is going to have to close the distance and make this a scrap. I don't think Smith is going to make it easy for him, throwing his straight punches and having fast movement.

Pick: Elijah Smith by KO.TKO in round 2. Low-medium confidence.

BENJAMIN BENNETT (6-1) vs. JOEY HART (6-1) – Welterweight

This a tough one as it's a classic striker vs. wrestler match up. Benjamin Bennett is a wrestler with a very strong amateur background, going 18-4 as an amateur before turning pro. He has a had a good pro career so far with his one loss coming to Trey Waters in a fight which he was winning before getting finished in round 3. Waters has since signed to the UFC and is now 2-0 with the promotion. Bennett is a solid wrestler but he does have some flaws. His flaws are that I think he strikes a bit too much. He holds his hands so high it almost looks like he's covering his eyes. He doesn't have great movement on the feet so he does get hit a lot when he strikes. His striking is mostly boxing and he does have decent offensive boxing. I do worry for his defense in a fight like this. He shoots for take downs pretty often but they are typically from quite far out and not set up too well. Sometimes it takes him a few attempts to get the fight to the ground, but once he does he has very strong control and ground and pound. He fights against Joey Hart who is a very slick striker for this weight class. I couldn't find too much tape on him but from what I saw he looks like an Alex Caceres / Payton Talbott type fighter, but at welterweight. I couldn't find his one loss which is a shame. It was broadcast somewhere because I know someone who watched it. I tried to find it myself but looks like the promotion he fought for has changed it's name and/or taken their website down. I was able to watch both of his pro LFA fights and a few of his amateur fights, but those amateur fights were a few years ago now. He is a very slick striker with very fast kicks that he throws often. Up close he also has strong weapons with his knees. He got a brutal KO win in his last fight which come in the clinch. He could potentially land a similar shot in this fight as I am sure Bennett will look to clinch. It's hard to know how good Hart's take down defense is right now as I could only find his most recent fight and in that fight he was dropped (mostly caught off balance) but not taken down. In his only pro loss I can only assume that he was taken down and controlled. As an amateur he was taken down and easily controlled but it's hard to put too much weight into those fights as they did all take place over 3 years ago. With Hart I think he holds a very significant advantage on the feet. He is a very fun fighter to watch and his speed and athleticism isn't seen often at these higher weight classes. Hart would be super fun in the UFC. But I am going to side with the wrestler here. There is no way Bennett's team is watching tape of Hart and not creating a game plan for Bennett to shoot early and often. If Bennett goes out there and strikes with Hart he will make me look like an idiot, but if he gets the fight down he should be at a big advantage.

Pick: Benjamin Bennett by decision. Low confidence.

TALISSON TEIXEIRA (6-0) vs. ARTHUR LOPES (6-1) – Heavyweight

There isn't much to talk about here on the Lopes side so this will probably be a short one. Lopes is a former welterweight who has fought once in the last 6 years, and that fight lasted 20 seconds. In those 6 years it looks like he gained a lot of weight and is now a heavyweight. You can find his recent fight on YouTube shorts but his opponent looked pretty clueless, just walking into a big hook. I have no idea where the UFC found this guy and it might just be because his nickname is “Jon Jones”. Tallison Teixeira is a true heavyweight prospect. He is 6'8″ with an 81 inch reach. He uses those physical tools very well as he mostly fights from range. I was impressed watching him. At only 24 he could be something if the UFC doesn't rush him.

Pick: Talisson Teixeira to win by KO/TKO in round 1. High confidence.

YURA NAITO (6-0) vs. ATEBA GAUTIER (5-1) – Middleweight

I spent a lot of time looking for Yura Naito tape. The conclusion I come to after talking with other MMA prospect experts is that for some reason Pancrase has taken his fights off YouTube. The fights were there, but now they are not. I was able to watch some highlights on his Instagram at least. If anyone has Yura Naito tape from his Pancrase fights I would greatly appreciate it – please contact me on Discord. Yura Naito has a wrestling background. He competed in the Junior World Wrestling Championships in 2016, representing Japan. It also looks like he also competed as pro wrestler in Japan according to the Pancrase website. Naito looks to be a good wrestler in MMA, with strong top control and good grappling. I hope he looks to wrestle in this match up because he is going to need to. Gautier is a powerful striker. He doesn't look to be the most technical but when he swings, he swings with intent and he has one punch finishing power. His biggest weakness is definitely his take down defense. He has been taken down a few times in his fights, and I don't think his opponents are better wrestlers than Naito. Against Glenn Williams, he lost because his cardio gave out on him. He looked decent in round 1 despite getting taking down, but then in round 2 he slowed significantly, and in round 3 he had nothing left. If Ateba is to win I think he needs a round 1 KO. I don't think his take down defense can hold up against Naito and if he needs to wrestle he is going to gas. This looks like a good stylistic match up for Naito, but this is still a low confidence pick for me because of the lack of tape I could find on him.

Pick: Yura Naito by KO/TKO or submission in rounds 2 or 3. Low confidence.