Contender Series 2024 has started off great for multiple reasons. The fights have been great, lots of contracts have been handed out, and my picks have been quit good too. I have picked 9-1 so far with a perfect card last week. With that being said I think that this card is significantly harder to predict that the last two. I don't think a single fight on this card has a clear winner. I think an argument could be made for any of these prospects to win. So with that being said I do recommend being careful when betting this card. Contender Series is 10 weeks long and there are better cards to come.

ANDREY PULYAEV (8-2) vs. LIAM ANDERSON (6-2) – Middleweight

This is a striker vs. grappler match up, but both fighters have their flaws. To start with Pulyaev, he is a very tall striker standing at 6'4″. He throws a lot of kicks and has an especially tricky jab from southpaw stance. He likes to dictate the pace and be the one moving forward. He has great kicks to the body and has more than one win set up from those body shots. His biggest weakness is definitely his cardio. I've seen him tired at the end of round 1 in recent fights. Anderson is a grappler but he doesn't have the best wrestling to get the fight to the ground. He has struggled to take down opponents in the past but as soon as he gets the fight down, his grappling skills show. He has great grappling for middleweight. On the feet he offers a lot of offense but little to no defense. He has been hit clean multiple times and was even knocked down by Jay Manning. He throws a lot of head kicks which I honestly don't really like as it leaves him open and uses up a lot of energy. He did get a cool head kick KO win in his last fight though. In this match up I really don't like Pulyaev's cardio. He is going to be moving backwards and defending take downs against the cage for the whole fight. Eventually he should gas out and that's where the take downs should come easier for Anderson. I like Anderson to win by submission in round 1 or 2 but round 1 is going to be a dangerous round for him.

Pick: Liam Anderson to win by round 2 or 3 submission. Low confidence.

MICHAEL ASWELL (9-1) vs. BOGDAN GRAD (13-2) – Featherweight

I really struggled to pick a winner for this fight. This looks like a mirror match up but both guys have slightly different styles. Michael Aswell is a boxer who closes the distance very often and lands most of his strikes in the pocket. His boxing does look quite fast and technical, and I would say he is the more technical boxer of the two. One concern I have for him is that he seems to slow as the fight goes on – but not in the same way that most fighters do. He starts the fight very high volume with good combinations in round 1, but then lowers that output significantly later on. He still pressures forward, but just throws less strikes. There were moments in his fight against Josh Altum where he was just standing in the pocket throwing no strikes. He does have good cardio but maybe that comes from the low volume striking. Bogdan Grad was on the season last year against Tom Nolan. He fought at lightweight was clearly way too small for the weight class. Not just against Nolan who is a massive lightweight, he looked small against other opponents too. Grad also seems to be mostly a boxer but from what I have seen I think he is a bit more well rounded. He is less technical than Aswell, but is definitely more powerful and will throw more intent to end the fight. He throws heavy leg kicks and I like that against a pressure forward opponent. Grad has shown improvements in his two fights since the show last year and looks much better at 145 lbs. There are some red flags in his game though. He has poor take down defense as he chooses to jump guillotine. That worked in his most recent fight but won't work against more elite grapplers. Another worry I do have is that before he got the massive KO win, he slowed down significantly and was getting boxed up by Tudor Dermenji in the second round. In this fight though I can trust Grad to be the more aggressive fighter. Aswell's close-in style has it's flaws as well as he spends a lot of time in pocket, leaving him open to counter shots. He was dropped by Yadier DelValle when he made this mistake. Grad could catch him there as Grad does have good counter boxing and a pretty powerful hook. If anyone was to find success in the grappling I think it would be Grad. So that's why I am siding with him even though I am not confident at all. I think he is slightly more well rounded, and will be given opportunities to land the big strikes which will score well.

Pick: Bogdan Grad to win by decision. Very low confidence

MARCO TULIO (11-1) vs. MATTHIEU DUCLOS (6-2) – Middleweight

In all honesty, this feels like a fight that is set up for Marco Tulio. He is a Chute Boxe guy who many people feel like should have been signed after last years show. Tulio is a grappler. He does strike a lot but in my opinion this is not a strong part of his game. He doesn't move his head much and in moment was getting sniped by Yousri Belgaroui on the outside. I also think he does too much. He throws flying knees and spinning kicks when he should just be using his boxing to close the distance and get the take down. I think he is a great grappler for this weight class though and that is where he is going to find success in this fight. I have no idea what to think about Duclos. He is massive for middleweight and I expect him to look huge in the face off. He is a dangerous striker who is super aggressive but he doesn't have great technique. He is super hittable as well and has been rocked multiple times. His last two wins are very confusing. They could have both been no contests. In his most recent fight, his opponent “quits” due to an “eye injury” where in reality there is a chance Duclos poked him in the eye in a grappling sequence. In his fight before that, Duclos is smacking up his oppoennts legs with his big leg kicks. His opponent ends up on his back and Duclos goes to take side control and it looks like he kneed his grounded opponent in the head. He won the fight by TKO. Two results that confused me a lot. He seems to be alright at grappling but I doubt he is as good as Tulio and I would be surprised if he can defend the take downs. So I am going to pick Tulio. As long as Tulio doesn't get knocked out for trying to be a hero on the feet he should win.

Pick: Marco Tulio by round 1 submission. Medium confidence.

MALCOLM WELLMAKER (7-0) vs. ADAM BRAMHALD (13-2) – Bantamweight

This is also a bit of a mirror match up between two tall strikers. Both Wellmaker and Bramhald like to fight from range. Wellmaker can be somewhat low output as he doesn't throw combinations – Nearly every time he throws a strike it is a one off strike. However he is very accurate and has great timing. His best weapons are his leg kick and his straight punches. He has great take down defense and in every fight I watched of his he had to show off defensive wrestling. I didn't see him get taken down much at all and some of his opponents had great set ups. On the ground I really like his grappling and would really like to see him use it here. Adam Bramhald is a very high volume Muay Thai striker. I can understand why people like him as he is very fun to watch. He is light on his feet and throws a lot of kicks – mostly to the legs. His biggest weakness is definitely his cardio. He starts his fights with his hands high but as he slows down (which can be as soon as round two) his hands drop and his striking defense gets a lot worse. If he had better cardio I would actually be somewhat high on him as a prospect. In this fight it's going to be the volume of Bramhald vs. the accuracy of Wellmaker. Wellmaker is a sniper on the feet and I think as Bramhald tires, there will be more opportunity for him to land a big shot. I would like to see Wellmaker go to his grappling as I do think he has an advantage there but I doubt he will as he hasn't offensively grappled much in his career. I am picking Wellmaker to land a big shot later on in the fight as Bramhald tires.

Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker by round 2 KO/TKO. Medium confidence.

JACK DUFFY (7-0) vs. NICK PICCININNI (6-0) – Flyweight

Jack Duffy has had it pretty rough. His original opponent Mitch Raposo signed to the UFC. Then his next opponent Jose Ochoa has also signed to the UFC if my sources are correct (this hasn't been made official at the time I write this). He would have been training for a striker in Ochoa and now has to fight a massive wrestler in Piccininni. Duffy's style is very basic yet effective. He is a very aggressive grappler. That's it. As soon as the fight starts he is attempting take downs immediately. On the ground he is a very slick grappler and is very good at taking his opponents back. On the feet he has nothing to offer but kicks. Piccininni has taken this on short notice, and to my knowledge he has only had about a week to prepare for this fight. Nick is a great wrestler. He is a 3x D1 All American, and a 4x Big 12 Champion in wrestling at 125 lbs. He is massive for the weight class as well which helps. On the feet he is definitely not elite but his team at Fortis MMA (and also American Kickboxing Academy) have done a great job at teaching him the basics. He doesn't do anything flashy, but he doesn't need to. He is definitely not a striker but he doesn't look uncomfortable on the feet. In this fight I think he can get the take downs with ease as I think Diffy might even pull guard. If he can avoid submission attempts in round 1 I think Duffy will slow down and he can take over with control. Nick's fights aren't super exciting to watch but he is clearly talented and could go far. If Duffy gasses out Nick might even land some solid boxing combinations on the feet. I am picking Nick to win as I think he can stay safe in top control. Hopefully he gets signed as he is a great prospect.

Pick: Nick Piccininni by decision. Medium confidence.