This is the final event of the 2024 season, and after looking into it I have to admit that it likely won't be the best – I think that was Week 9. I went into study feeling pretty confident considering my last two cards have been very successful but have left more confused than before. Nearly all of my predictions are low confidence and the card has been well matched with fights that have been very difficult to predict. If you made good money on Week 9 I think it would be best to count your wins and enjoy the last card of the season – Because this is a very tough card to predict.
NICK KLEIN (5-1) vs. HERLADO SOUZA (9-1) – Middleweight
Going into the fights I was expecting to pick Souza – He has had the longer camp and is 95% picked on tapology. But after watching the tape I actually like Klein more but I don't feel great about the pick. I started looking in to Klein first and my first reaction was that he is very unimpressive. His striking is very average – He mostly throws kicks which are fast but have very little power behind them. His boxing is very stiff even if he does have a decent jab. The first fight I watched of his was his loss to Dorjan Dokaj where he looked terrible. He failed a couple of take downs and gassed out completely in the second round, getting finished in the third. But then I watched his fight against Collin Huckbody and he looked much, much better. The take downs came much easier and he even showed good take down defense as well. He spent the last two rounds controlling Huckbody with not much resistance. He has had quite a few amateur fights before going pro, and they can be watched on YouTube as well. Heraldo Souza fights like a grappler but I think his striking is actually his strongest skill. He definitely isn't a technical striker but he is very quick and hits hard. He has a lot of movement on the feet and when he closes the distance he throws very quick boxing combinations which have dropped multiple of his opponents so far. If he was to win this fight I think a KO is his best chance as Klein doesn't really move his head. What worries me in this fight is that he looks to wrestle in every fight. He clinches his opponents up against the cage even if he has a clear striking advantage and works to try get take downs. But he doesn't look like he has great wrestling as he is struggling to take down these low level guys. On the ground he has good BJJ but a lot of his submissions come after he has dropped an opponent with his boxing. He is also going to be very small in this fight. He has fought at Welterweight before and you can tell. I doubt he cuts much weight at all. He was originally booked against Alain Van De Merckt in what was probably intended to be a lay up for Van De Merckt to get into the UFC. Then Wes Schultz stepped up and had to pull out. Now Klein has accepted the fight on what I think is one weeks notice. I mentioned Klein's poor cardio but Souza's cardio might be worse. He spends way too much energy running around his opponents in circles and doesn't have a great amount of energy left in round 2. If Klein can go out there and wrestle Souza I doubt Souza's take down defense will be enough to stop him. If he can control him for the first round Souza is going to tire from the grappling and likely have nothing left. I know this probably sounds more like a theory than a prediction but aside from Souza rushing in and knocking out Klein I don't really see another way for him to win. So I am going to pick Klein, but he really needs to get the wrestling going – and early.
Pick: Kyle Klein to win by submission in round 3. Very low confidence.
NICK PICCININNI (7-0) vs. LUIS GURULE (9-0) – Flyweight
An unpopular opinion I have is that I thought Piccininni beat Jack Duffy. I thought he stole the fight when he rocked Duffy in round 3. Nonetheless they were supposed to rematch on this card and Piccininni would have won the rematch for sure considering he now had 7 weeks to prepare instead of 10 days. I have talked about Piccininni before this season so I will mostly focus on Gurulue. To my knowledge Gurule has accepted this fight on one weeks notice. Like Piccininni he also has a wrestling background and was a state champion. He doesn't shoot for many take downs though and his fight style is all about breaking his opponents with pressure. He is constantly moving forward throwing leg kicks and punches when he has closed the distance. His style is pretty hard to explain but to simplify it he is a very effective pressure fighter. His opponents typically end up folding to the pressure and from there the the take downs come much easier. He doesn't shoot as often as Piccininni does and his take down accuracy is pretty low, but once on top he has heavy ground and pound and strong top control. I favour Piccininni in this fight though. Piccininni is a huge flyweight and his wrestling is very high level. His striking did get exposed by Jack Duffy which is a really bad look but his boxing did look good against Jomar Pa-Ac. Piccininni will have to look to get his wrestling going early to stop Gurule from implementing his game plan. Gurulue will find the most success on the feet but I think Piccininni can be be effective enough with his take downs and ground and pound to win a decision.
Pick: Nick Piccininni by decision. Low-Medium confidence.
YADIER DELVALLE (7-0) vs. ANTONIO MONTEIRO (17-4-1) – Featherweight
I have to admit that DelValle was less impressive than I thought he would be. I knew a bit about him as he is a hyped prospect and he did beat Michael Aswell in a fight I watched prior to Aswell's fight against Bogdan Grad. I ended up picking against Aswell and Bogdan Grad won a very close decision. In his fight against Aswell, DelValle was able to control the grappling for the entire first round, and take downs in the third round are what secured him the fight. DelValle is a black belt in BJJ and it does show, but I worry that he is too comfortable off of his back. He pulls guillotine way too often. In his most recent fight against boring wrestler Pena Allamov he pulled guillotine four times – twice in round 1 and once in rounds 2 and 3. Because of this his take down defense is not good. His cardio looked good against Pena Allamov but that was probably because Allamov wasn't able to apply pressure to him on the feet which is something he doesn't deal with very well. His striking is very basic. He mostly boxes but he does throw a lot of leg kicks. For a guy with 22 professional fights I was surprised that I couldn't find that much on Monteiro. Thankfully I was able to find his most recent fights. Monteiro is definitely a bantamweight. His striking is also very basic but I would say he looks less comfortable on the feet that DelValle does. He has bad cardio and no head movement. His best strengths are definitely his grappling but he isn't super dangerous. He does have very strong top control and on top he transitions well to find dominant positions. I did notice that his most recent opponent Lucas Tavares was able to lock up multiple guillotine attempts so maybe the guillotine merchant DelValle can find one here. Overall I was a bit disappointed as I had high expectations as both of these guys have solid records on paper. DelValle looks to be a little bit better everywhere with better cardio and a size advantage.
Pick: Yadier DelValle by submission or decision. Low-Medium confidence.
LESLIE HERNANDEZ (4-1) vs. JULIETA MARTINEZ (7-0) – Women's Strawweight
Julieta Martinez' manager has intentionally removed all of her pro fights from YouTube so her opponents team won't be able to find them. Lucky for me I am close with that manager and he helped me out a bit. Both Hernandez and Martinez have backgrounds in Tae Kwon Do. Hernandez also has a boxing background but I am not sure how far that went, but her LFA commentators mentioned it and I thought bringing it up could be of note. Hernandez looks very green in her MMA fights. She doesn't deal well with pressure and her most recent opponent was able to easily overwhelm her in the first round with strikes. She looked like she froze up and didn't return any fire. She has decent grappling and she may have to use it here. Martinez looks very promising but her competition so far has not been great. She has fought a lot of opponents with losing records but she has been finishing them which is a good sign. She is very aggressive and throws a lot of volume. I don't think her boxing is very good as it looks like she rushes forwards, but her kicks are great. She throws kicks from anywhere and finishes nearly every combination with a head kick which has knocked out many opponents. Her grappling has come along to meet her striking skill set and she has been finding submissions but once again over opponents that are practically giving her a free arm bar win. I'm picking Martinez to win as I think her strikes will overwhelm Hernandez.
Pick: Julieta Martinez by decision. Low-Medium confidence.
MOHAMED ADO (5-0) vs. JONATHAN MICALLEF (6-1) – Welterweight
Mohamed Ado is managed by Ali so the UFC probably wants him to win. He has a kickboxing background so his striking is technical. He throws pretty low volume but he has a solid jab and strong kicks. On the feet he throws a lot of leg kicks. I do worry about his fight IQ a bit as he does wrestle when he doesn't need to. This can put him in some pretty bad positions and his most recent opponent was able to throw him around with judo tosses whenever he got in the clinch, and he still attempted more take downs anyway. He has a lot of wins by submission because he does have solid grappling but I would like to see him strike against Micallef. Micallef is a grappler who charges forward on the feet. He doesn't have technical striking, brawling forwards with his hands pretty low and his chin in the air. He was tossed around easily when he lost to Aldin Bates but he does have a great win over Joseph Luciano. Micallef will definitely look to wrestle here but Ado does have very good take down defense. Even then, Ado's pure grappling might be a bit better as well. Because of this I think Ado can find success wherever the fight goes but I do wish he decides to strike with Micallef as he is the much more technical striker.
Pick: Mohamed Ado by KO/TKO in round 2. Medium confidence.
