Cage Warriors takes place this weekend in London the night before the UFC card. Usually when the UFC goes away and a regional show takes place the night before, the match makers are present. This means that some winners are likely to be seen on the Contender Series or signed straight up into the UFC.
**Updated 21st March due to a couple fights being adjusted
HARRY HARDWICK (12-3-1) vs. JAVIER GARCIA (12-5) – Featherweight Championship
If Harry Hardwick wins this weekend I am pretty confident he gets signed outright. They might make make him fight on the Contender Series like they did with George, but at this point I think Harry has proven himself to be ready for the UFC. He is on a nice win streak over high level competition and is 7-0-1 since 2020. Hardwick has a great striking style for MMA, as unlike his brother he can mix in a lot of kicks on the feet. He can grapple well and will likely need to show that off here. He had a tough test against Keweny Lopes who is a prospect a lot of people are high on and despite having some tough moments dealing with Lopes power early on, he was able to outlast the early rounds to find a late finish. Garcia is a tough grappler who has no wins or losses by KO. He will look for take downs and look for dominant positions before going for a submission. His striking isn't bad by any means but I think it's fair for me to say that Harry is the best striker he has fought against. I think Garcia may have some moment of success but ultimately I believe in the well rounded skill set of Harry to get the job done. At this point Harry has a lot of experience against tough competition and once he signs I think he could climb the ranks somewhat quickly.
Pick: Harry Hardwick by decision or KO/TKO. High confidence.
GEORGE HARDWICK (13-2) vs. SAMUEL SILVA (12-4-1) – Lightweight Championship
It would be awesome if both Hardwick brothers won and got signed to the UFC at the same time. Everyone thought George would be the first as he was on a tear before competing on the Contender Series in 2023. In that fight he was exposed a bit and showed that he needs to work on dealing with pressure before fighting for the UFC. George is a boxer with solid take down defense and he works in shots to the body very well. he made his come back 6 months ago and to be honest, didn't put up a great performance. He was scheduled to fight on last weeks card but his opponent must have pulled out as he is now booked against Silva this weekend. Samuel Silva is on a 4 fight win streak, with 2 of those wins against very high level competition in LFA. Silva throws a lot of kicks with no set up and this has costed him a few times. Rodrigo Lidio was countering his kicks very well. Silva would throw a kick, and Lidio was able to respond with a jab-cross combination nearly every time. Silva was dropped very badly by one of those counters but showed a good chin as he was able to recover and work his way to a very close decision win. If George has done his tape study I expect him to fight Silva with nearly the same game plan. Another mistake Silva makes is that he holds his hands very low and barely moves his head. He throws hard but is a much better hammer than nail. George should have plenty of opportunity to land clean shots with his fast hands in this fight.
Pick: George Hardwick by KO.TKO. Medium-high confidence
ELI ARONOV (6-1) vs. WILL CURRIE (12-4) – Middleweight
I have lost hope in Currie. The red flags were there but I still picked him anyway against Djorden Santos as I didn't think Santos boxing was going to be good enough to shut down Currie. Santos made his UFC debut recently and looked absolutely hopeless, just flailing his arms around trying to do his best Julianna Pena impression. Currie was shut down but those sorry excuses for punches and I kick myself for not seeing it coming. Curries response to dealing with pressure and volume is to completely cover up and do nothing about it. When I saw him do this against Wallison Henrique (16-13) I should have known he would do it against Santos but Santos' looked so bad on tape it was obvious he was meant to be a lay up for Currie. It seems like Cage Warriors have given up on him too if this is his return fight to the promotion. Aronov isn't the tallest guy for middleweight but he is tough and will come forward. He is a wrestler first and had his own loss on Contender Series to Zach Reese. That isn't a great loss but Reese is dangerous against anyone in round 1 and Aronov got caught in an arm bar. Aronov will come forward and shoot take downs and I think he gets them. Although a somewhat controversial decision, we have seen Currie get controlled before against Mick Stanton. Aronov is very ground and pound heavy and he will throw on Currie. Currie is a talented grappler and has great BJJ at 185 lbs but you cannot trust him. He seems to have no heart and looks scared in the striking. Time to see how he deals with someone who will throw ground and pound. I think Aronov is a great underdog opportunity and at the time of me writing this article he is +160 on BetOnlne.
Pick: Eli Aronov by KO/TKO or decision. Medium confidence.
NIK BAGLEY (6-1) vs. KEWENY LOPES (11-2-1) – Featherweight
This is a huge step up in competition for Bagley. Lopes just fought for the title against Harry Hardwick not that long ago, and before that was on a massive win streak with many first round KOs. Lopes is a very powerful striker but he does have poor cardio which was shown against Hardwick. Hardwick was able to wear him down over time and then got a late finish when Lopes gassed out. Fortunately for Lopes, this fight likely ends early no matter who wins. Bagley has dominated everyone he has fought recently and most of his wins have now come in the first round by submission. I do question him in this fight a bit though as Lopes will be the most dangerous fighter he has fought in his career. Bagley is going to need to be aggressive here which is likely going to put him in some tough spots on the feet. If he can put a wrestling pace on Lopes early though, Lopes has shown he can gas out quickly. If Lopes can keep this fight on the feet he is likely to get a KO. This is a dangerous fight for both and it is understandable that the odds are so close. I think Bagley has the best chance to win though as he has the better cardio and I like the option to make Lopes work hard early in the grappling. Either way it's likely a Bagley submission win or a Lopes KO win.
Pick: Nik Bagley by submission. Low confidence.
JAWANY SCOTT (6-1) vs. JONNY TAUMA (6-3) – Flyweight
Just writing this up as I don't want anyone making the mistake of putting Scott in a parlay. He is -1300, the biggest favourite on the card, and I am not super confident in him. He is very athletic and is a prospect but he is coming off multiple disappointing performances in a row. It seems like Cage Warriors is giving him a lay up here but he has poor fight IQ and no finishing ability. He should win but -1300 is not worth it at all.
Pick: Jawany Scott by decision. High confidence.
JOE MIDDLETON (2-0) vs. CRAIG RAWLINS (5-5) – Middleweight
Cage Warriors has done some MMA math here. They have a prospect with 2 wins by submission fighting against a journeyman with 2 recent losses by submission. 2 + 2 does equal 4 most of the time.
Pick: Joe Middleton by submission. High confidence.
CHARLES JOYNER (4-1-1) vs. YANNICK BAHATI (9-7-1) 2 – Light Heavyweight
This is a rematch. Joyner is a 6′ 8″ striker but I think he looks really awkward and doesn't use his length very well. His striking defense doesn't exist either as he doesn't move his head at all. In the first fight Bahati was just trying to stall against the cage while Joyner was trying to strike. The fight sucked, there was bad eye poke, but we are getting the rematch as I think Cage Warriors thinks Joyner could become something. So far, I am not so sure.
Pick: Charles Joyner by decision. Medium confidence.
OLLIE SARWA (5-0) vs. YADWINDER SINGH (8-4) – Bantamweight (140 lbs)
This is a short notice fight. Singh is a pretty tough guy but man he has no striking defense at all. Sarwa should knock him out.
Pick: Ollie Sarwa by KO/TKO. High confidence.
Cancelled fights:
OLLIE SARWA (5-0) vs. RORY EVANS (7-7) – Bantamweight
Looks like Sarwa is a new prospect Cage Warriors is looking to build by putting him on a big card like this. He has a lot of amateur experience by so far as a pro is yet to fight anyone with a solid record. Despite having a lot of early finishes he isn't too over aggressive but he does throw a lot of volume. He is quite small for this weight class but I don't think he could make flyweight being 5'9″. Evans is one of those guys with a bad record but to his credit he has lost to some pretty good guys. Nearly every loss he has had recently, his opponent has gone on to become something. Evans weakness lies in the grappling but Sarwa looks like he can keep composed against other strikes so I think eventually Sarwa can take over and find the chin. Hard to tell how good Sarwa is now though as he is yet to be tested against great competition.
Pick: Ollie Sarwa by KO/TKO. High confidence.
