It is time for another wonderful UFC pay per view event! This time around at UFC 275 the event is taking place in Singapore directly following the Road To UFC event. We have an interesting, but somewhat strange card to look forward to. The prelims are a bit lacking in my opinion, but the main card is straight excitement from start to finish with three huge fights taking place and solid contests leading up to them.
Last week I went a total of 12-2 in my straight picks, and managed to make money on DraftKings due to cash games. My tournament lineups did not fare well unfortunately, only reaching minimum cash in some contests, as I had almost no exposure to the only 9k range fighter worth having (Rinat Fahkretdinov) for tournaments. Also, despite being high on Karolina Kowalkiewicz I only had her in cash lines.
As far as last week’s choices for this article went, Ige was the only one that didn’t exactly work out. Again, I never expected him to win, but I was hoping for a showing that at least got him into the 40-50 point neighborhood despite losing the decision. That didn’t happen, but the other three plays worked out well.
This week we get back at it, trying to find the gold for my Draftkings lineups and hopefully win some single entry tournament money to go with my cash contests. Without further delay, let’s take a look at the fighters I like the most for my UFC 275 DraftKings entries;
CASH PLAY
VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO – $9600
There is a decent amount of buzz surrounding Taila Santos this week, who is Valentina Shevchenko’s opponent at UFC 275. While I agree that she may be one of the more capable fighters that Shevchenko has fought at this weight class in her career, she is still miles away from the machine that is Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko.
The only finish Santos has in the UFC came by submission against Joanne Wood, who is a notoriously poor grappler. Beyond that Santos is winning decisions, usually based on takedowns, and even those are not against the best fighters. In this matchup both fighters have impeccable takedown defense, and the standing edge – without question – goes to Valentina Shevchenko.
My expectation here is that Valentina comes away with either a very dominant decision, or she manages to get the knockout in the later rounds, sometime third round or later. I am a bit apprehensive to use Valentina for tournaments however, as I do not believe that she will score numerous takedowns on Taila Santos as she has done in many of her previous fights. This would leave us with a very technical striking battle between two fighters that are both somewhat low volume.
TOURNAMENT PLAY
MANEL KAPE – $9200
For me the tournament play choice came down to Manel Kape, or Seung Woo Choi. The choice was really between who I believe to be the better fighter of the two, which is Manel Kape in my opinion, and who I believed to have the weaker opponent which would have given the nod to Seung Woo Choi. After much deliberation I decided that Manel Kape is surging, and is fighting someone guaranteed to slow down outside of the first round, so I went with Kape.
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Kape has managed a first round knockout in his last two fights, scoring over one hundred DraftKings points in both contests. Couple this with his impressive 80% takedown defense and I think he has a solid opportunity to perform a similar feat here. His opponent, Rogerio Bontorin, is very takedown heavy, scoring eight takedowns in his last fight. He doesn’t really do much with them however once they get there, and is fairly low volume when standing as well.
My expectation here is that Kape’s newly acquired love for attacking wears on Bontorin, and that he struggles to achieve takedowns on Kape as well. This will cause him to slow as the fight goes on and leaves open a great opportunity for a late first round, or second round, finish for Manel Kape.
SALARY PLAY
JACOB MALKOUN – $7200
I really wanted to cop out here and pick Liang Na. She is the sensible low salary choice. I just couldn’t do it though, as it seems that every single analyst on the internet is on her, and her ownership will likely be insane for a $7600 fighter come UFC 275. So while I totally agree with the Liang Na play as well, I decided to go with a riskier Jacob Malkoun.
Jacob Malkoun is set to matchup with Brendan Allen at UFC 275, and both of these gentlemen are impressive grapplers with a mediocre list of opponents. There are three combined UFC losses between them, all of which have come by way of knockout. This is a bit concerning because if anyone was to get a knockout, it would be Brendan Allen.
That being said, this fight is a lot closer than the salaries involved would suggest and I could definitely see it playing out on the ground with Malkoun scoring numerous takedowns, due to Allen’s non-existent takedown defense, and cruising to a high scoring decision. There is some inherent risk involved here, and you likely could be better off in cash games going with a safer salary play of either Liang Na, Ramona Pascual, or Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
FADE
JOSELYNE EDWARDS – $8700
This was a pretty easy call for the fade of the week in my opinion. Joselyne Edwards might not even win this fight against Ramona Pascual, let alone win and score enough to justify her $8700 price tag. I actually believe that Ramona wins this fight by decision by using her wrestling and applying top pressure. I also doubt that Edwards has the power to get a finish even if it did stay standing.
Basically what I am saying is that I see no merit whatsoever in having Joselyne Edwards in your lineups. I don’t believe she can get a finish, and I don’t think she scores highly enough in a decision to justify not just being on the Pascual side if you target this fight.
ROUND OUT THE LINEUP
This week I will be adding this section so that I can provide anyone that is curious with what I believe to be the winning formula to construct your lineup since I am no longer breaking down every single play on the card that I like.
For UFC 275 I see a ton of questions in the mid-range of fighters. For me this means that it is a perfect week to target a Stars and Scrubs approach. This type of build consists of three fighters near the higher end of the salaries, and then three fighters towards the lower end of that salary spectrum.
The biggest question that I have been struggling with is whether or not I want to go with Joanna and Jiri, or if I want to go with Zhang and Teixeira. I do believe that Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka will finish. Sadly however, I do not know if that will be by Jiri knockout, or Glover by knockout or submission.
Looking at the rematch of Joanna and WeiLi, I think it will go the distance, so it would be safer to base the construction of my lineup on what I decide with Jiri and Glover. Unfortunately it would be very difficult to get WeiLi and Jiri into the same lineup without extreme sacrifice. So that construction is somewhat out of the question.
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