We have a brand new matchup for Justin Gaethje on this card, but this isn't a new matchup in his career. As we all know by now Dan Hooker broke his hand and let the world know he was out of this fight through his daughter's youtube vlog. The UFC reached high and far looking for a replacement. Dustin said no, Max said no, Moicano said no, Armen Tsaurkyan said yes but wanted a catchweight so the UFC said no, then finally Rafael Fiziev stepped up and they are running this fight back. This is a rematch from 2 years ago where Justin won an absolute war.
The first fight was a few years ago and a lot of things have happened since then. Justin was knocked out cold and Fiziev had a very serious knee injury. The likelihood of this fight being as good as the first one is somewhat low but it should still be a banger. To figure out who is gong to win, we need to ask a few questions. first, has Justin lost his chin entirely? Because he relied on that heavily in the first fight. Second, what will Fiziev look like after surgeries and an extended layoff? If i could be sure Justin still had his chin, then he's the pick, regardless of Fiziev's knee. But the last time we saw him he was face down completely unconscious. It looked the like type of KO that permanently changes your career. If Fiziev is exactly who he was before surgery and Justin isn't, then Fiziev wins this fight and unfortunately, i think thats the case here.
Justin Gaethje
Justin Gaethje is a wrestler at his core who went 10 fights in the UFC without a takedown. He is a striker in style with power and volume. Pretty much every single strike he throws is a significant strike, hence the more than 7 landed per minute. Unfortunately he is hit just as much and has a negative striking differential. He marches forward, throws heavy and will stay in your face. He loves ugly fights and thrives in the chaos. He absolutely destroys people physically. He is coming off the half of fame knockout loss to Max Holloway
Rafael Fiziev
Rafael Fiziev is a phenomenal striker with a traditional Muay Thai style. He has incredible power and volume. He mixes his punches and kicks up well which is expected from such a high level striker and coach. Even though he is one of the most technical strikers in the division, he will absolutely get sucked into fire fights and abandon those techniques to chase a KO. He has impressive takedown defense at 89% and is coming off the knee injury loss to Gamrot
