If Paddy dog walked an old Tony Ferguson, so will Chiesa. We all know who Tony used to be, but we also need to come to terms with who is today and today he is an elderly man with enough CTE for 3 people. Michael is a smart guy, I imagine he shoots early and gets this to the ground. Even if he doesn't it's not like tony has insane one punch KO power – it's been years since he has looked even remotely decent. Chiesa is -400 and should be -1500

Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson is now on a record 7 fight losing streak and hasn't won a fight since an eye injury to Donald Cerrone in 2019. In his prime he is accurate, unorhtodox and dangerous everywhere. He is tough as nails and has the mental fortitude of a David Goggins. He was never a one punch KO guy but he always had razor sharp elbows and sneaky submissions. He is coming off the one sided loss to Paddy Pimblett at UFC 296.

Michael Chiesa

Michael Chiesa is a grappler who is pretty one dimensional and has a straight forward gameplan. He comes forward, looks for takedowns and works from there. He doesn't have a versatile set of takedowns but the few that he uses, like body locks, do work well. Once on top he has solid pressure and can alternate between ground and pound and submissions. He is coming off his 3rd loss in a row, this time a submission to Kevin Holland after 5 failed takedown attempts.