It’s only been 3 weeks since our last UFC card, but it has felt like an eternity. We wrapped up 2023 with UFC 296, which was actually quite a good card (with the exception of the lackluster main event). Now we look forward to 2024 and what the UFC has in store for us.

To kick things off for the year, the UFC is back at the Apex for a Fight Night headlined by the rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker. There is a good mix of veterans of the sport as well as new young fighters looking to make a bigger name early in their career. Let’s take a look at a few of the fights that standout on paper as potential targets for FanDuel lineups this week at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2.

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FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-1600 FDNGTD)

WESTIN WILSON ($8) vs. JEAN SILVA ($22)

Jean Silva is a massive -900 favorite in this matchup, which reflects Westin Wilson's low expectations rather than Silva's own abilities. This skewed line implies an underestimation of Wilson, pointing to potential flaws in Silva's style. Although Silva is the obvious choice given his chances of winning in most scenarios, he is not immune to mistakes. A careless spin or an overextended kick could provide Wilson with the opportunity to turn the tables. Silva is the safer side, but he might be a little overvalued in terms of DFS pricing.

Silva's approach in the octagon is characterized by a dynamic balance of power and creativity. He alternates between a disciplined guard and a more relaxed, hands-down stance, constantly confusing his opponents. This unpredictability, while entertaining, can occasionally put him in dangerous situations. Silva's strategy frequently entails lowering levels to deliver body shots before quickly transitioning to powerful head strikes. His takedown defense is strong, which complements his impressive striking abilities. In contrast, Westin Wilson's karate-based style has low hands and agile, darting movements. Despite a tendency to be overly cautious and vulnerable to hits, Wilson shines when he finds his rhythm, charging forward with rapid strikes. His significant height advantage in the weight class is a valuable asset, especially on the ground, where he is constantly looking for submission opportunities. Wilson, who recently fought Joanderson Brito on short notice, remains a dangerous, albeit less polished, contender.

This fight could be a fun one as both fighters have impressive finishing rates and a tendency to avoid letting fights go past the first round. Silva and Wilson's relative UFC inexperience suggests that the fight could be closer than the odds indicate. Silva, with his solid chin and a perfect record of never being knocked down, undoubtedly has the advantage. However, given the lopsided betting line, it makes sense to consider Wilson as well. In terms of DFS strategy, I want to try and get one of these guys in most lineups. 

FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-1400 FDNGTD)

PHIL HAWES ($15) vs. BRUNNO FERREIRA ($16)

Phil Hawes enters this bout as a highly skilled fighter with impressive boxing, formidable power, and adept wrestling abilities. However, his vulnerability to getting caught on the chin is a critical factor, particularly when facing a striker like Brunno Ferreira. Despite this, Hawes' resilience and unwavering spirit, combined with his undeniable talent, make him very live in this fight. Ferreira's inconsistent takedown defense and unpredictable fight style contrast with his chin, which is a clear weakness. This match could be a defining moment for Hawes, especially if he wins as the underdog.

Brunno Ferreira brings a dynamic striking skill set involving agility and a variety of explosive blows. His ability to balance aggressive striking with strategic energy conservation makes him a dangerous opponent. Ferreira's grappling abilities, while secondary, could come in handy if pressed. On the other hand, Hawes, who recently demonstrated a renewed confidence in his striking abilities, must be wary of his chin's vulnerability, which was exploited in his previous fight against Ikram Aliskerov. This fight will put both fighters' strategic adaptability to the test, as well as their physical strength.

This fight is ideal for excitement in GPP formats but risky in cash games due to its unpredictability. Both fighters are looking to reestablish themselves after recent losses. While Ferreira appears to be on track for a comeback, Hawes' experience and potential value as an underdog provide a compelling counterargument. The likelihood of an early finish is high in a fight like this, which is always appealing when looking for ceiling scores in DFS. Whichever way it goes, this fight on paper has all the potential to be a good one.

FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-1400 FDNGTD)

NIKOLAS MOTTA ($10) vs. TOM NOLAN ($20)

Tom Nolan enters the fight with significant height and striking advantages, and he looks to make an impactful debut against Nikolas Motta. Nolan's physique is strikingly similar to Cory Sandhagen's, but it is his high-level striking abilities that truly distinguish him. He combines technical precision with a willingness to engage in brawls, displaying both strength and resilience. Watching Nolan's fights reveals his ability to withstand heavy hits, particularly overhand rights, without faltering, demonstrating his strong chin. However, his grappling defense appears to be his Achilles' heel, which may not have a significant impact on this matchup but should be noted for future bouts.

Nikolas Motta, a veteran UFC fighter, brings his own impressive skills to the octagon. His striking is not only explosive and athletic, but also varied and well-paced. Motta's high takedown defense rate of 82% gives him the confidence to unleash his striking arsenal without worrying about being taken to the mat against his will. Despite an early submission loss to Trey Ogden that was later reversed due to a refereeing error, Motta's overall performance is commendable. He is known for his patience in the ring, waiting for the right moment to step up his attack, a strategy that could be critical against a striker like Nolan.

The matchup offers an intriguing contrast in styles and experience. Nolan's height advantage and aggressive striking are key factors that could overwhelm Motta, who struggled in his previous fight before a fortunate overturn. Given his lack of UFC experience, Nolan's 6-0 debut as a significant favorite adds an element of uncertainty. Motta, with his proven offensive and defensive abilities, emerges as a viable backup option. Nonetheless, this fight lends itself well to the intrigue of a DFS slate.

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.