Last week’s UFC card in Sao Paulo quickly turned into a DFS nightmare as we lost a couple fights heading into the weekend and then even had one fight canceled well after the event had started and we were midway through the card.

Now we head to UFC 295 Prochazka vs. Pereira to determine who will be our new champion at the 205-pound division. Even with the Jones/Stipe fight cancellation this PPV card is still loaded with talent from top to bottom. Let’s take a look at a few fights that standout from a DFS perspective.

If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will get back to you ASAP.

FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-2000 FDNGTD)

Sergei Pavlovich ($15) vs. Tom Aspinall ($16)

Sergei Pavlovich, known for his devastating striking power, enters the octagon with a solid reputation in the heavyweight division. His boxing abilities, combined with his exceptional speed and power, make him a formidable foe. Pavlovich's style is distinguished by an aggressive striking volume and a chin confidence that allows him to engage fearlessly in the pocket. While risky, this strategy has consistently kept him ahead of his competitors. Pavlovich has not attempted a single takedown in his UFC career and has only been taken down once, emphasizing his preference and proficiency in stand-up exchanges. His most recent victory, a first-round knockout of Curtis Blaydes, was his sixth in a row, demonstrating his ability to end fights quickly and decisively.

Tom Aspinall, on the other hand, has a more diverse arsenal. As one of the most well-rounded heavyweights, he combines effective striking with skilled wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu knowledge, for which he holds a black belt. Aspinall's striking is not only powerful, but also technically sound, and he uses his kicks expertly. His ground game is equally impressive, as he has a 100% success rate in both takedowns and takedown defenses, and he averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes. After a year off due to knee surgery, his recent victory over Marcin Tybura cemented his place as a serious contender in the division.

This fight between Pavlovich and Aspinall is a classic power striker vs. all-arounder matchup that is full of surprises. Pavlovich's striking may give him an advantage in a stand-up fight, but Aspinall's diverse skill set may take over if the fight goes to the ground. While Pavlovich may aim for a quick knockout, Aspinall may aim to withstand the initial onslaught and capitalize on later opportunities. The uncertainty surrounding Pavlovich's stamina in later rounds, as well as Aspinall's handling of top-tier striking, adds to the intrigue. Given the unpredictability, getting to both sides of this bout in your lineup pool would be smart. Pavlovich could win quickly, but underestimating Aspinall's strategic capabilities would be a mistake. This fight promises excitement as well as significant implications for the heavyweight division.

FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-600 FDNGTD)

Jiri Prochazka ($18) vs. Alex Pereira ($20)

Because of their aggressive styles and knockout potential, Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka present a highly anticipated fight with significant DFS implications. Pereira, known for his exceptional kickboxing abilities, appears to have an advantage over Prochazka's more raw striking style. Despite the lack of wrestling or ground game expected in this fight, both fighters carry a knockout threat, making them appealing for GPP lineups as well as cash contests. Pereira's transition to light heavyweight has been successful, demonstrating improved speed and health, whereas Prochazka's return from a serious shoulder injury adds uncertainty to his performance. Prochazka's durability and ability to win late are impressive, but Pereira's striking prowess gives him a slight advantage in this matchup.

Pereira, a formidable kickboxer who has defeated Israel Adesanya on multiple occasions, has advanced to the light heavyweight division. He is a formidable opponent due to his size and striking abilities. His ground game, however, remains a potential weakness, as evidenced by previous takedowns. Despite absorbing a high rate of significant strikes, Prochazka, known for his exhilarating fighting style, is incredibly durable. His return after a severe shoulder injury and intensive recovery raises concerns about his fitness, but his track record of impressive UFC performances, including stunning knockouts and a remarkable comeback to win the light heavyweight title, attests to his tenacity.

Given the uncertainties surrounding Prochazka's injury recovery and Pereira's superior striking, Pereira appears to be the safer bet, though Prochazka's history of comebacks and endurance should not be overlooked. This is a close fight, but the slight edge goes to Pereira, especially given Prochazka's tendency to absorb significant strikes. Allocating more weight to Pereira makes sense in terms of DFS strategy, but ensuring exposure to both fighters is critical due to the unpredictable nature of this bout and their knockout capabilities. This is a high-stakes, high-reward matchup that is ideal for those who are willing to embrace the volatility that comes with such a dynamic matchup.

FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-400 FDNGTD)

Matt Frevola ($10) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis ($21)

Matt Frevola takes on Benoit Saint-Denis in what promises to be an exciting match. This is a DFS dream matchup, with both fighters displaying aggressive styles and high ceilings. Frevola, known for his relentless forward pressure and strong wrestling, prefers to throw big, looping shots, displaying a less technical but highly effective striking style. Despite having a low takedown accuracy, he has 12 takedowns in 9 UFC fights, showcasing his grappling ability. His recent win over Drew Dober demonstrates his ability to overcome difficult opponents. However, his chin remains a concern, particularly against a power striker like Saint-Denis.

Saint-Denis brings an intriguing combination of precise wrestling and striking power. His traditional wrestling style, which focuses on level changes and attacking the legs, has resulted in 13 takedowns in 5 UFC fights. On the ground, he is an expert at control and submission. While he is a powerful striker, he is vulnerable to counterattacks. His recent dominance over Thiago Moises demonstrated his diverse skill set. 

This is a close fight with both fighters having clear paths to victory. Frevola's aggression and wrestling ability could pose a challenge to Saint-Denis, assuming he can withstand potential knockout power.  A balanced exposure to both fighters would be advisable for this DFS slate. Frevola, as the underdog, provides value, especially given his recent performance. His knockout risk should be balanced against his ownership percentage. Saint-Denis is a strong pick too but his striking defense is a concern. Playing some game theory here and try to strike a balance in DFS ownership is critical.

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.