Last week we missed on the Sean Woodson prediction and instead opted for Tatiana Suarez. Suarez wasn’t a terrible play, but she scored closer to her expected floor and Woodson was able to outscore her because he…checks notes…grappled in his fight, and had plenty of takedowns and control. I didn’t expect it, and neither did anyone else, as Woodson was only estimated to be 13% owned. As far as the rest of the 9K range, I was pretty accurate in choosing to take a shot on Klein over Bahamondes and being all-around leary of the Phillips versus Barcelos fight.
This time around we have a UFC Vegas 78 event taking place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card is headlined with veteran welterweight action between Vicente Luque and Rafael Dos Anjos. The rest of the card is loaded with fights that matched up a questionable fighter with an even more questionable fighter. If not for the last-minute replacements this card would be even worse, so thank you to them for that.
For anyone that hasn’t read this article before, The Chalk Board is a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports article where I attempt to navigate the $9000+ salary range by offering you insight into who I will be using, considering, or fading from my personal lineups. In turn, this can help navigate the lower salary range as well by design. If you choose to alter your lineups based on my statements in this article, please understand that I am not a professional gambler or DFS player, so that decision is yours. Live with the results YOU get from the decisions YOU make.
UFC Vegas 78 has one of the most underwhelming $9K ranges to come along in a while. I have a feeling that several are going to let down those that roster them and it will be some surprising scores from fighters down the slate that steal the show. Hopefully, we can dial in on the best play from the 9K range, if there is one, and leave enough room to load up through the middle of the slate. Below you will find my opinions on the slate, let’s dive in.
$9600 – MARCUS MCGHEE (-360)
When Marcus McGhee made his first appearance in the UFC on short notice in his last fight, I watched every bit of tape that I could find on him. I didn’t like him to win that fight, and of course, he went on to win against Journey Newsome. I still don’t know what to make of McGhee, and I will explain further shortly.
Marcus McGhee is a good striker, who seems to have adequate power, but based on the tape I watched has a few glaring holes. I fully expected those holes to be his undoing in his last fight against someone with a reputation for being a good wrestler despite rarely using it, in Journey Newsome. The issue that I noticed with McGhee, and you are welcome to go watch the tape yourself to verify, is that he seems to be overly aggressive striking often, and has problems with opponents changing levels into double-leg takedowns. Watching his tape it was almost like the motions were on repeat. McGhee swings, the opponent ducks under, and McGhee puts on his back over and over again. There were a couple of opponents he just blazed right through, so obviously those are not the fights I am talking about. For the fights that lasted any length of time though, it happened over and over again. I also noticed that the wrestling affected McGhee as the fight progressed. He wasn’t getting completely gassed, but you could see him slow down visibly. This didn’t end up happening with Newsome, and I would say that was because Journey waited until he was already losing on the feet to start even attempting takedowns, and once he did they were all half-assed singles, which Marcus doesn’t struggle with nearly as frequently.
His opponent this week is JP Buys, who is a legit wrestler that will wrestle. This has me a bit leary of McGhee, especially at this price tag. If Buys can get his wrestling going this might be a long night for McGhee. On the other side of the coin though, Buys has questionable durability and could just get put out and finished early on in the fight.
Marcus McGhee is going to come down to ownership for me. If he is what I would consider heavily owned then I would use him in cash games just to stay with the field in the event that he starches Buys, but for tournaments – any of them really – I would prefer to use Buys I think. I see this as a poor matchup for McGhee if Buys can manage to avoid the early power. Again though, ownership will dictate if I use McGhee, and if so, how much of him in what contests.
$9400 – JOSH FREMD (-360)
In the second spot on our slate of mediocre fighters commanding insane price tags is Josh Fremd. Fremd is a well-rounded fighter that just seems to lack the intangibles that would make his skills truly dangerous. Fremd was on a bit of a run of poor performances until his most recent fight against Sendriques Dumas, where he won as the underdog in a dominant fashion over the raw prospect making his official UFC debut.
It seems that the win over Dumas, which was comprised of heavy wrestling and ended in a submission on the ground, has sent people over the moon in favor of Fremd giving him nearly 4:1 odds against fellow low-level UFC fighter Jamie Pickett in this matchup. Personally, I don’t get it. Should Fremd win this fight? Probably, because Pickett is essentially just a stepping stone for anyone coming into the UFC normally. Will he win this fight though? I am not very sure personally, and at $9400 I would truly prefer to be sure. Jamie Pickett isn’t good, and Josh Fremd isn’t good either. This fight is a coin flip in my opinion, with maybe a slight lean in the Fremd direction.
This is another one that will be dictated by ownership for me. I could definitely get behind Fremd in cash contests and small-field single-entry if he is bringing a ton of ownership with him, but short of that there is not a prayer of me locking this guy into my lineups. For $9400 I want a killer, or at least a dominant control-focused wrestler. Fremd is none of that. For small contests, it will depend on the number, and for larger tournaments, it would be a dog or pass situation for me. There are just too many dangerous fighters with high ceilings through the middle of the slate to take unnecessary risks on Fremd at $9400 in a fight where both guys are sloppy enough for anything to happen.
$9200 – TERRANCE MCKINNEY (-280)
TWrecks is making a quick turnaround here after being finished in his fight against Nazim Sadykhov just a few weeks ago by submission. That fight followed the typical Terrance McKinney blueprint, so if nothing else the man is consistent.
Terrance McKinney is pretty straightforward in his approach. He starts fast using his wrestling, which is pretty good for as long as McKinney’s cardio lasts. The problem exists when that wrestling doesn’t lead to getting his opponent out of the fight within the first two minutes or so and his cardio issues begin to show themselves. At least we are getting an exciting fight for as long as it lasts every time McKinney steps into the cage.
McKinney is stepping in on short notice to fight Mike Breeden, who lost his original opponent, Lando Vanatta. Breeden has had a tough run in the UFC, losing his DWCS appearance and two subsequent fights following that to Fluffy Hernandez and Natan Levy. Both of those official UFC losses were a fairly decent level of competition, but the UFC continues to offer Breeden no favors with his third fight against a dangerous fighter in Terrance McKinney. The good news for Breeden is that aside from his finish loss to Fluffy, he has proven to be pretty durable which could be his path in this one if he can manage to survive the early push from McKinney.
Terrance McKinney is one of my favorite fighters to watch fight, but one of my least favorite to use in DraftKings. When it comes to McKinney there is no floor, at least not at this price tag. This is boom or bust if you want to play him. Personally, I will be leaving him out of cash games, and only taking a shot on him as a tournament play and hoping for an early first-round finish. If I was entering multiple lineups I would definitely have some exposure to the Breeden side because his score could be good if he can outlast McKinney to get the cardio finish.
$9100 – JAQUELINE AMORIM (-245)
Does everyone remember what Jaqueline Amorim’s first UFC fight looked like? If not allow me to refresh your memory. In the first round of her official debut against Sam Hughes she connected on a few looping rights that didn’t even seem to affect Hughes (lack of UFC level power or just Sam Hughes being very tough?) and then shot a takedown that almost allowed Sam Hughes to catch her in an armbar. That didn’t happen, she passed away from the threat, but it was there for a second. Then Amorim threatened Hughes with several chokes but Hughes was able to fight the hands for a full two minutes at the end of round one to avoid the submission. Amorim would end up on the bottom to start round 2 and give up almost an entire round of control. Then Amorim would get outstruck as she faded in round three to lose her debut by decision.
Amorim has exceptional jiu-jitsu skills, but her skill set seems to end there when it comes to the UFC level based on the Hughes fight. She doesn’t seem to have power in my opinion, because if she did she would have seen more of a result from the punches she hit Sam Hughes with. Her takedowns looked very basic and somewhat sloppy I expect not to be very successful against most UFC-caliber women. Her ability to achieve a first-round submission is definitely there though.
Amorim will be fighting one of my favorite lower-level UFC women, Montserrat Ruiz. Ruiz is small, which could be a problem for her here if Amorim was a more impressive striker, but since she isn’t, the size difference shouldn’t mean much because Amorim will have to close the distance for Ruiz in order to get any grappling going. Ruiz is notorious for going for a headlock takedown and is a very established wrestler. The issue here is that she would be operating in the world of Amorim on the ground, but Hughes did it for three rounds, so it's not impossible.
Amorim could be a great tournament play this week with her extreme submission upside, but when it comes to cash I don’t have enough faith in her for that. She shouldn’t get finished by Ruiz, but I can’t see banking on that being the floor at $9100. Ruiz is a more enticing option to me because I think she has more upside for wrestling over the duration of the three rounds assuming she survives the first.
$9000 – HAKEEM DAWODU (-210)
Roudning out the 9k range on DraftKings for UFC Vegas 78 is Hakeem Dawodu. Dawodu is fighting WEC/UFC legend Cub Swanson. This fight should be fun to watch, but that is only because Cub is a shell of himself in his prime, leveling the playing field for Dawodu to look like something. In Swanson’s prime, this wouldn’t even be a fight in my opinion.
Hakeem Dawodu is a very skilled striker but has lacked the power to finish since entering the UFC, only producing one finish back in 2019. Aside from that, Dawodu has been a decision machine. He has won five decisions (three by split) and lost two of those decisions. In an alternate universe, he could have lost five of them and only won two. I hope you are seeing the same problem here that I am.
To muddy the waters a bit though, standing across from him with be Cub Swanson, who is standing on wobbly legs in the UFC. He has been on a back-and-forth string of finishes for the last couple of years, winning two and losing two. The good news for Swanson is the two he lost were both significantly better fighters than Dawodu. My concern here for Swanson is the timing of the fight for him. I don’t believe you can truly rely on Swanson in either direction due to the age starting to show in his fights.
I am going to be rooting hard for Swanson in this one, but I cannot in good conscience play either of them in the contests that I play. There is no ceiling for Dawodu and there is no floor for Swanson. Anything could happen in this one, and that scares me enough to stay away. If I played larger contests though, I would likely not completely fade Dawodu as there is a chance he finds a finish on an aging legend.
FINAL THOUGHT
This card will probably be amazing to watch, but unfortunately, the name value on paper is non-existent. It does seem like those cards are always exciting for whatever reason though, maybe the mid-tier fighters just want it more? I really believe this 9k range is the weakest you could possibly see all year and should be played with extreme caution. Personally, I will be looking to make my lineups from the $8k range primarily as that section of the slate has much higher ceilings in my opinion.
Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.
Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter, or you can shoot me questions as well if you like @WebGuyWWP. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.
