This article took a week off last week, sorry about that, had a million things going on in my personal life so the free content took the hit. For what it is worth, I wasn’t really on target for most of the last event except the higher-priced fighters anyway, would have missed the entire mid-range that performed very well on the slate.
This week we turn our sights onto UFC 291, and try to find the best fights to target on the slate for your FanDuel tournament entries. Generally speaking, we do this with the betting lines for the fight not going the distance, but once in a while I take a bit of creative liberty and throw a fight in there that I believe in rather than just strictly adhering to the betting lines.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC 291. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-650 FDGTD)
MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA ($19) vs. DERRICK LEWIS ($11)
Hate him or love him, you cannot deny that Derrick Lewis fights are exciting for as long as they last. Heavyweight fights in general are a coin flip, and when you add in the elevation in Salt Lake City, Utah you are adding in another variable that can affect the outcome of the fight. Regardless of which direction it goes though, I have no doubt that this one scores very well for those of us worried about a fantasy score.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a well-rounded Muay-Thai striker with decent takedowns and above-average grappling for the division. He has been on a bit of a tear lately with his only loss in his last five coming by way of decision against Blagoy Ivanov in a fight that could have gone either way in my opinion.
Standing across the cage from de Lima is Derrick Lewis. We all know the deal with Derrick Lewis these days. He comes out, tries to knock someone out, and if it doesn’t work out he folds and gives up. He is the definition of a one-trick pony, but that one trick he has is really, really powerful. While he doesn’t have a good ground game or even solid takedown defense, he is usually good for at least getting up once on sheer power alone. This means that Marcos will likely have to put him down twice while avoiding the power coming back at him.
I am pretty firmly on the Marcos Rogerio de Lima side here, but I definitely wouldn’t shame anyone for playing Lewis. The Lewis side makes all the sense in the world for DFS, especially if you play in larger tournaments where you need to value upside and value over safety.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-360 FDGTD)
GABRIEL BONFIM ($22) vs. TREVIN GILES ($9)
I absolutely love this fight. One side more so than the other, but either way it should be exciting. On one side we have Gabriel Bonfim who will be looking to avoid the fate that fell upon his brother in his last outing, and on the other side, we have the blue-collar American Trevin Giles who either is, or was, a police officer doubling as a fighter.
Gabriel Bonfim has 14 professional fights in his career, and has 14 finishes on his 14-0 record. That screams finish win here, and his first one in the UFC was as exciting as it could have possibly been. Bonfim is a great boxer, has very adequate wrestling, and is an amazing grappler. Of his 14 professional wins, 11 of them have come via submission.
Trevin Giles has one of the best jabs in all of the UFC, and then also has a well-rounded game with plenty of athleticism behind that. If there was one big knock on Giles’ skillset it would be his lack of volume. He tends to fight very patiently, which sometimes can be useful for him, but other times may have cost him so opportunities. Giles has been finished four times in the UFC, twice by knockout, and twice by submission. When it comes to his wins, they have been mostly decisions as of late, but there were a few knockouts in the past for him as well.
There have been plenty of people projecting Ismael Bonfim’s last performance onto Gabriel for this one, but I am not concerned at all. Bonfim is my 1A/1B most confident pick on this slate. If Giles manages to get the win, I am not sure it would be by finish so you would just be choosing to live on the fact that his salary is virtually nothing.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-300 FDGTD)
JAKE MATTHEWS ($19) vs. DARRIUS FLOWERS ($10)
To be completely honest, I hate this fight. Jake Matthews has proven to be unreliable under a fantasy lens, but he is also pretty good. That makes for quite the high-variance decision. He was originally scheduled to fight Miguel Baeza as well, who I actually believe would have been an easier fight for him. Instead, he is now fighting Darrius Flowers on short notice. Flowers has good wrestling, good boxing, and plenty of power to go with it.
I think for me this is a Flowers play just for salary reasons. There are too many reliable options up near what Matthews costs. I do expect others will feel the same though, so if Matthews puts up a good score and gets the win you could find quite a bit of leverage over the field there if his ownership is lacking as I expect it to be.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home, follow along with @WeWantPicks on YouTube for live bets on the fight companion. Also, tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.