Well, last week was a shit show, that is for sure. I rolled the dice by fading Jack Della Maddalena completely, which would have been a good decision had I gone with Melquizael Costa or Ailin Perez instead. Unfortunately, I did not, and I went with Azat Maksum. Tyson Nam had a much better takedown defense than I was expecting, as I thought that his 100% takedown defense was very suspect due to only being tried five times, four of them being from Kai Kara-France. Lesson learned.

This week we are heading across the pond to London, England for the event. The last time there was a fight night in London it was better than most of the pay-per-view events, so my hopes are high for a great showing. We have fifteen fights to choose from, so once again our 9K range is pretty packed. 

Below I will take a stab at navigating through all of the highest-priced fighters on the slate. Hopefully, this can give you some insight to consider when making YOUR OWN decisions. I feel fairly confident in my assessment this week, but there is always the possibility that someone turns in a surprise performance or that I am just plain wrong about something.

$9700 – TOM ASPINALL (-450)

I have been very leary to jump into these new, exceptionally high, salaries over the last few weeks because I believed that there was much better value to be had for much less. Another big contributor to that was the lack of viable dogs – or the impression that there were in the case of UFC 290.

For this slate though, I think Tom Aspinall is going to be the best play possible in the 9K salary range, and that goes for basically all contests in my opinion. Aspinall is a complete heavyweight who can stand and strike, has the power to go with it, and has plenty of wrestling and grappling talent as well. While I still don’t love that there is a new salary ceiling being created on DraftKings, I don’t mind it as much when the fighter is fairly safe and has plenty of grappling upside as well.

One of the things that I think you can spot a theme with on this slate is a disparity between the level of competition in most of these fights. Aspinall’s opponent, Marcin Tybura, has shown how tough he is for sure, and that he can stay safe on the bottom for at least a round or so if he is taken down, but he has been getting his wins over a much different level of heavyweight than Tom Aspinall. Offensively Tybura isn’t anything special in my opinion, and I think that even if this makes it to the scorecards, Aspinall is going to be the much more active fighter.

I will be using Tom Aspinall in all of my contests, both cash and tournaments. I truly don’t see a reason on this slate to not include him, except of course maybe in one of the monster tournaments to try to create a bit of difference between your lineup and most others. Even in that scenario though, I would have to think more than twice about excluding him.

$9500 – MAKHMUD MURADOV (-315)

Makhmud Muradov is a complete striker with solid takedown defense. While he doesn’t go out of his way to do any of his own wrestling, he is capable of it from time to time as well. His opponent in this fight is veteran Bryan Barberena, who has a history of being a high-volume, pace-pushing fighter that has infinite cardio but can be neutralized with power or takedowns.

At $9500 and going against a very tough opponent in Bryan Barberena, I have a few reservations about using Muradov in specific contests. I do believe that there is a world where Bryan Barberena could pull this out. If Muradov could be relied on to wrestle I would feel much more confident about using him in lineups across plenty of contests, but I just don’t look at his numbers and feel confident about that. That holds especially true with a guy like Barberena who lacks power, so I don’t expect Muradov to feel uncomfortable in any of these exchanges.

I do believe that Muradov wins, but with him being primarily a striker and his opponent being pretty tough in his own right, I just don’t feel great about using Muradov in cash or small-field single-entry contests, which is all I personally play. I do think that including him in your builds for large-field multiple-entry contests would be prudent, however. 

$9400 – MOLLY MCCANN (-215)

Just to clear the air before I get into this assessment, I am a HUGE Molly McCann hater. Deep-rooted disgust consumes me each time I hear someone bigging her up as if she is actually a quality fighter on the UFC roster. So please keep that in mind as you read this, if you are on Molly for whatever reason you probably shouldn’t let me deter you from that opinion, because she could be fighting literally anyone, and I would be on the side of anyone.

The reality of this fight is that it is one of the rare Women’s MMA fights that I believe has a better chance to end inside the distance than going to a decision. Molly McCann is a solid striker who has displayed a flash for knockout power in her unorthodox spinning elbow – which she is sure to try to land at least two or three times and will eventually be the strike that subpar wrestlers wait for so they can time a takedown and get the fight where Molly is terrible. Her opponent is Julija Stoliarenko, who you may remember from fainting while trying to make 135 lbs. This fight is at 125 lbs. Due to that fact, there is a very strong chance that this fight doesn’t even happen. If Julija Stoliarenko can make the weight, however, my personal expectation is that the size difference will make her otherwise underwhelming takedown offense look somewhat impressive.

If the fight takes place, I believe that this fight goes one of two ways. Both potential outcomes are very solid for DraftKings. Either Molly looks the way that I am sure the UFC wants her to look by staying standing and gets a knockout on what I am sure will be a depleted Stoliarenko, or Stoliarenko can get her to the ground and Molly won’t last long in my opinion before being submitted. If you take a look at Molly’s record she is taken down by almost anyone that wants to, and once on the ground she only seems to survive against pure wrestlers while being submitted by anyone with a  strong grappling skillset. 

Personally, I will be playing the Stoliarenko side of this one in tournament lineups, but as I stated above, no matter which side you are on this one should be good for the scorecards in my opinion. I would avoid both of these women for cash contests though, there is just too much up in the air about this fight as far as I am concerned.

$9300 – ANDRE MUNIZ (-215)

This fight should probably be taking place under pure grappling rules because that is where both Andre Muniz and his opponent Paul Craig, prefer to work. Muniz is the only one of the two with the ability to get the fight to the ground though – short of Craig pulling guard which he has done fairly regularly – so it really is up to Muniz how this fight plays out for the most part.

If I was just picking a straight winner, it would be Muniz. I think he is probably the better striker (maybe not the more powerful one) and I know that he is the better wrestler. There seems to be a consensus opinion that Muniz is the best grappler as well, and while I do somewhat lean in the direction of that being a true statement, I don’t truly know that it is true.

Muniz was just out-grappled by Brandon Allen, who is very good in his own right, and Paul Craig has proven time and time again what a dangerous grappler he can be. The biggest concern for me is that I know Paul Craig will fight until he is unconscious, or the final bell, whichever comes first. I watched Muniz break in his fight with Allen and just give in to being submitted. Because of that alone, it would be hard for me to take the shot on Muniz, but thankfully he has produced plenty of other reasons not to roster him. Take a look at any recent scores from Muniz, if he cannot get the submission early he won’t score well. He is a very methodical grappler who doesn’t seem too crazy about sacrificing position to chase a submission. He also doesn’t inflict much damage from the controlling position as a general rule. This can be evidenced in his 90-point performance against Uriah Hall if you would like to go back and watch that fight.

I will be fading Muniz completely from my lineups this week. The only way I could see playing him is if you believe that he will finish Craig in the first round, and have too many doubts about that outcome because to do so he would have to play in Craig’s favorite domain.

$9200 – NATHANIEL WOOD (-195)

Wood is one of the English fighters on this card with some pop on his name value. He is a well-rounded fighter capable of performing in every avenue of MMA, but his striking has been the most impressive in my opinion. The grappling of Wood is very strong too, but I prefer to see him doing that against a cage, or from the top position, and in this fight, I have a feeling it would be from the bottom if we see it.

His opponent in this fight is Andre Fili who is also pretty well-rounded, but his preference seems to be slanted toward wrestling. Fili is not nearly as technically sound when it comes to striking as Wood, and that is where I expect the most prominent skill gap to be present. Unfortunately, that doesn’t score that well on DraftKings, but when you consider Wood’s ability to offensively grapple himself, Fili’s tendency to get sloppy as a fight progresses, and the pace that both of these fighters usually fight at, some of that concern is alleviated.  

I believe that Wood is a level or two above Fili, and is certainly the more consistent of the two fighters in my opinion. I will be strongly considering Wood in cash lineups but will be moving away from him in tournaments because I am not overly confident in a big score and there are more grapple-heavy fighters above and below him.

$9100 – KETLEN VIEIRA (-150)

This fight between Ketlen Vieira and Pannie Kianzad is already scheduled as a bathroom and food break for the UFC London card. Neither one of these women have power or is otherwise very dangerous in any aspect of MMA. I don’t expect a huge score here at all in either direction, which means that only one side of this fight is playable – and it is not the Ketlen Vieira side.

I can’t even bring myself to really debate who will win this fight. Pannie Kianzad is the more active of the two, and at the pricing on these two girls, Pannie Kianzad is the only playable side. Even then I wouldn’t count on her for any large tournaments because she wouldn’t produce a good score even if she were to win.

For me, it will be Pannie Kianzad for cash and small-field single entry. If I was to play anything else than those two very specific contest types, I would be fading this entire fight. Pannie is one of the better plays in my opinion however if you are playing a contest where you don’t need a monster score from a $7100 fighter.

$9000 – JOEL ALVAREZ (-190)

I am very excited about this fight, but it is more so because of Joel Alvarez’s opponent, Marc Diakiese, and not because of Alvarez himself. I do believe that whoever wins this will produce a very impressive score, but I do not believe that either one of these fighters can be truly relied on to win the fight. Here is my breakdown of how I believe this fight will go.

Joel Alvarez is a slick grappler and has proven to be a somewhat capable striker as well. In this fight is matched up with Marc Diakiese, who has shown the ability to strike with some very accomplished strikers, and the ability to wrestle his way to wins as well. I believe that to get to playing Alvarez here you will be essentially gambling on him throwing up a random submission, while you could play Marc Diakiese for less money and have more paths to victory to rely on. The sad truth though is that neither are reliable and playing either is taking a chance.

When it comes to Alvarez I would probably only play him in large field tournaments or multiple-entry contests. His upside is great, especially if he can snatch up a guillotine on an early shot. Unfortunately, his floor is also terrible and he could just be taken down and dominated for as long as the fight lasts.

FINAL THOUGHT

The London slates always seem to deliver some exciting outcomes, so hopefully, that trend continues as UFC Vegas 77 was a bit of a buzz kill coming off of the extreme excitement of UFC 290. This card is loaded with 15 fights, so optimism is running high for me.

On this slate, I believe that there are numerous live dogs so a stars and scrubs approach would likely be best for tournaments. Being accurate on those dogs is going to be the make-or-break decision in my opinion. Hopefully, this Chalk Board article has helped you at least reduce the number of options in the upper salary range, and in turn isolate a few dogs you feel good about. I would like to take this time to again remind you to make YOUR OWN decisions. Don’t buy into anything I say unless it makes sense to you as well.

Good luck this week! If you need any help with your DraftKings entries you can join the free Discord server which has loads of very capable DFS players and I am sure you will find an opinion that will give you the confirmation bias that most people seek. If you need additional help then reach out to @WeWantPicks on Twitter, or you can shoot me questions as well if you like @WebGuyWWP. Thanks for reading, see you guys next week.