Welcome to the first installment of The Chalk Board, which is a breakdown of the upper salary range on the DraftKings slate. This week we are staring at one of the most packed $9K ranges I have ever seen on the platform. I don’t know that this is a fact, but I certainly believe that this is the first time we have had a $9800, $9700, and $9600 fighter on the same slate.
While that is an anomaly in the DraftKings world, I couldn’t have asked for a better week to introduce The Chalk Board. With so many options near the top of the slate, players will be left wondering who they should play. I am not talking about players that play multiple-entry contests, because they will likely have all of them in some fashion. I am speaking about the normal players like myself who will be playing some cash contests, and then maybe take a shot at a tournament or two. So let’s get this started!
$9800 – BO NICKAL (-2500)
We know what Bo Nickal is going to do. He is going to attempt to shoot early and force the fight into a wrestling/grappling exchange. That is his path, he knows it, his opponent knows it, and to this point, no one has been able to do anything about it. Could this be the week? There is some optimism circulating the community for the fresh opponent, Val Woodburn. Personally, I am very doubtful.
Bo Nickal is the UFC golden goose right now, and while it is true that anything can happen in a fight, I can’t imagine the UFC placing anyone against Bo Nickal right now that they believe stands a chance to beat him. It is fun to watch people get excited over Woodburn’s regional tape streamrolling fighters with terrible records though.
My prediction for this fight is a first round submission win for Bo Nickal, and I even believe that there could be a chance that it happens within the quick win bonus time frame (60 seconds) as well. All of that being said, I still think Bo Nickal is a tough play for tournaments this week because at $9800 he would need one of the best performances in the history of DraftKings to make the optimal lineup. The virtually non-existent mid-range on this slate doesn’t help matters.
$9700 – JACK DELLA MADDALENA (-1000)
Moving down the board at $9700 we have everyone’s favorite Australian, unless of course you have been tailing PlayHardToBet’s round props from the Best Bets articles, and then he is probably your favorite Australian. Jack Della Maddalena is an exceptional striker who has shown us time and time again that he has the goods to be wildly successful in the UFC. Just like Bo Nickal, JDM is matching up against a late notice replacement opponent from the regional scene. His opponent’s name is Josiah Harrell.
Jack Della Maddalena should be the easiest fade at the top of the slate in my opinion. You could definitely play him in cash if you need to save that $100 over Bo Nickal, but there is only a snowball’s chance in hell that JDM ends up optimal for tournaments. At $9700 he would need a quick win bonus finish and anything less doesn’t see the light of day.
When it comes to DraftKings, fighters without true wrestling upside are very difficult to get behind at a salary like this. Doing so basically pigeon holes you into needing the quick win bonus. While a quick knock out certainly is possible, I personally believe that Harrell is going to try to close distance and engage in grappling exchanges with JDM. There is little chance they will be successful in my opinion, but they could eat time, and at this salary time is not our friend here.
$9600 – TATSURO TAIRA (-1100)
Attention value hunters, you are getting an implied value with Tatsuro Taira. He is slightly more favored to win when compared to Jack Della Maddalena, but allows you to save $100 as well. One other thing worth noting here is that $9600 is bringing us back into the realm of normal DraftKings salaries as well. It is still very expensive, but normal expensive, and not out of this world expensive like Nickal or Maddalena.
Tatsuro Taira is an established prospect at this point, having had three fights in the UFC to this point. He specializes in grappling and will look to get this and any other fight he is in to the ground so that he can hunt for a submission. Taira does have some pop in his hands, but striking isn’t exactly his preferred method of attack.
In this fight Taira is fighting Edgar Chairez, who you may remember from the brutal late stoppage where his opponent was already asleep from the triangle prior to being put into an armbar. Here is the link, but be warned that what is displayed in this video is beyond sport;
Remember when this fighter was unconscious for 30 seconds before the referee stopped the fight?
Well, the fighter who won that fight makes his UFC debut this weekend at #UFC290 - Edgar Chairez
pic.twitter.com/Htg968sFQM
Obviously that is not Chairez’s fault, and is more so on the shoulders of the referee that didn’t step in, but brutal nonetheless. Angelo is fairly high on Chairez this week, but honestly I just don’t see it. Taira should run away with this in my opinion, but I would consider him to be more of a tournament play than a cash play. For cash you could just spend another $200 and ride with -2500 Bo Nickal. For tournaments that $200 savings could be huge though, and I would expect Taira to score in the same ballpark as Nickal. Personally I won’t be playing much Taira either though.
$9400 – CAMERON SAAIMAN (-550)
This could be one of the sneakiest plays on the slate. I personally believe that Saaiman will be one of the lowest owned in this price group, with only maybe Yazmin Jauregui being lower owned. Of course I could be totally wrong and he ends up very highly owned just from a salary savings perspective.
Cameron Saaiman takes a ton of shit from the community at large for being penalized or warned in every single one of his fights so far in the UFC. Watching them all though, I don’t think he is a dirty fighter. I think he just fights really aggressively and things happen. Saaiman is very good in the standup, being both accurate and powerful. If there is a glaring hole in his game to mention though, it is the takedown defense. Saaiman has been taken down six times in three fights, and that could be a path for his opponent, Terrence Mitchell, in this fight. Saaiman will need to close distance and open himself up for takedowns in the process.
All things considered I like Saaiman to get the win here in spectacular fashion and wouldn’t mind considering him for any type of lineup build on this slate. Don’t forget though, low ownership is not your friend in cash contests, so if his ownership is under 25% you may want to look elsewhere.
$9300 – YAZMIN JAUREGUI (-385)
Yazmin Jauregui is a future champion in my opinion. She is a very skilled technical striker who moves in and out well with great timing on her counters. She has shown the ability to get the fight to the mat as well on the regional scene, but we haven’t seen much of that since entering the UFC unfortunately. Even in her win against Istella Nunes, who is one of the easier women to get to the mat, she stayed standing and chose to strike with her.
In this fight she is fighting Denise Gomes who you may remember from not long ago dismantleting another prospect named Bruna Brasil. Gomes is a tough woman, who isn’t exactly technical with her striking but has some power in her hands. Gomes is also fairly well rounded, capable of both takedowns and effective grappling. All of that being said, Yazmin will win this fight, she is just a different class of fighter in my opinion.
Win aside though, I wouldn’t even bother playing Yazmin Jauregui unless I was playing multiple-entry contests because a stand up fight that likely goes to decision just wouldn’t score nearly well enough. When you factor in just how many high scorers there are in this salary range as well it becomes an even clearer fade.
$9200 – ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI (-350)
I will likely not find agreement here among my colleagues at We Want Picks, but I think Volkanovski makes this look easy. Volkanovski is one of the best martial artists of all time, and except for the creative striking of his opponent, Yair Rodriguez, I don’t see a single aspect of this fight where Volkanovski doesn’t have the advantage.
The striking is obviously close, and Yair probably is the more dynamic of the two in the striking realm. Volkanovski has very solid boxing that is clean and well timed. Unfortunately, he doesn’t possess the most power, which can be a bit of a concern and has caused many decisions in his UFC history. Coming back at him the kicks of Rodriguez would be the most concerning under normal circumstances, but I don’t really see them being a problem. I think those kicks will just open up Rodriguez to Volkanovski’s impeccable timing for takedowns.
On the ground Rodriguez is a capable grappler, but from bottom against a guy as good on top as Volkanovski is, things would look bleak for Rodriguez in my opinion. Volkanovski has the established history of being one of the best scorers when it comes to DraftKings, the wrestling upside, and the control upside. Only spending $9200 on that is a steal as far as I am concerned and I would strongly recommend Volkanovski for cash and tournaments. This will also allow you to spend up elsewhere as opposed to playing Nickal or Taira.
$9100 – ROBERT WHITTAKER (-400)
There are few people in this world who have spent more time hating on Dricus Du Plessis than I have. I have described him as sloppy and as having cardio issues. In truth I have been waiting for a fight like this for his hype train to get derailed. That should make this super easy for me right? You would think so.
Unfortunately, and I really can’t explain why, the closer this fight gets the more I think DDP is actually going to pull it off. Whittaker is a much better fighter in virtually all aspects of mixed martial arts and should be the clear winner here. The one thing that DDP has that you just can’t account for in a number, or even accurately describe, is his desire to win. He has a resolve about him in these fights where he just keeps pushing no matter what. Unbreakable if you will. That never say die spirit coupled with his power is his x-factor in this fight. For a second though, lets assume I said none of that and I firmly believe Robert Whittaker wins.
Robert Whittaker has scored over 100 points in only three of his last ten fights in the UFC. One of those was a five rounder, and the other two date back to 2017 and 2016. The man just doesn’t score that well on DraftKings. For that reason alone, not even factoring in that I think DDP might steal one, I cannot recommend Whittaker in any lineup at this price point.
$9000 – VITOR PETRINO (-255)
Vitor Petrino is the final fighter in the $9K and up range. Petrino is a force that easily has the power and wrestling advantage here. He likely is at a disadvantage with the technical striking compared to Prachnio, but Prachnio is not one to shy away from a fire fight which I believe favors Petrino heavily.
On a slate that is absolutely loaded near the top end of the salary groups, finding someone like this at $9K is an absolute gift. Prachnio also has a very suspect chin, so if Petrino can connect with it, or get top position and reign down punishment from the top, then Prachnio should be out of there well before the final bell.
I firmly believe that using Petrino this week not only helps you save salary while still providing a similar upside to the very top of the slate, but I think he will be slightly less owned than many of the higher priced fighters this week due to his betting line being much closer. That provides opportunities within your tournament lineup, but could be a problem for cash should he not perform as expected. Definitely double check the ownership before you roster him in cash, but for tournament purposes, lock and load.
FINAL THOUGHT
This slate is so incredibly top heavy that I believe you will need one of two things to win tournaments. The first possibility is that you will need a perfect stars and scrubs style build where you have the exactly correct three fighters from the top of the slate paired with the three cheapest fighters you achieve wins. The second possibility is that you will need to fade the tippy top fighters and construct something more balanced that includes the Crute vs. Menifield fight in some fashion. I personally am leaning towards the second option.
At some point in the future if this article is well received, I will write start writing others for the remaining salary groups on the slate as well. Once that happens those other articles will likely go behind the premium membership while The Chalk Board remains free to all. Good luck this week in your contests!
