The UFC 274 pay-per-view was a bit up and down, both from an entertainment standpoint as well as a DraftKings standpoint for me. My cash contests surprisingly did fine even with the miss on Khaos on the miserable scoring in the Co-Main from Carla Esparza. I guess we can credit Loopy Godinez for picking up the slack along with Donald Cerrone’s food poisoning ( I had zero exposure to that fight). My tournaments however were big duds as I still had Khaos and Carla in most, faded Loopy completely from tournaments, and bounced between Fiahlo and Chandler so I never had those two on the same lineup. I did manage to write up all of the top scorers, so if I would have just been a little more diverse I likely could have done really well in tournaments as well.
This week we head back to the Apex Center for another UFC Vegas event. The card is definitely a step down on paper from the PPV event we just saw, but let's be honest, that was the worst event for the last while despite looking great on paper. Only a handful of fights actually delivered violence. Those handful were extra violent though, so I guess that makes up some for the overall experience.
UFC Vegas 54 only has eleven fights on the card, so there is much less room for error this week. I will need to tighten up if I want to make any money here. Doubtful that there will be a scratch and low decision scores saving me this time around. Here are my core plays;
THE CORE PLAYS
DAVEY GRANT – $9100
This first spot in my core came down to who I trusted more between Ion Cutelaba and Davey Grant. I ended up choosing to go with Davey Grant because I think he is actually reliable to go in and do what he does – whereas I might have a few concerns about Cutelaba because he sometimes goes off the rails and tries to be a striker.
Davey Grant is also going to be matched up with what I would consider to be lesser competition than he has been fighting when it comes to his opponent, Louis Smolka. Both of these fighters have roughly identical striking and takedown numbers when it comes to offensive production, the difference lies in the level of competition and the defensive numbers for me where Grant shines through as having the clear cut advantage. The only area of the fight where Smolka likely has an advantage is with his submission game, and Grant does have three of his losses in the UFC from submission unfortunately so it is a legit concern.
Ultimately I like Grant to go into this fight and dictate the pace and where the fight goes, and I expect him to come out with either a knockout or a dominant three round decision.
JAKE HADLEY – $8800
This is a DWCS fighter that many are likely considering fading. I get it, there is tons of talent in the 8700 and up range. For me however, I have some extreme faith in Jake Hadley. I have heard numerous analysts break this fight down and state that Hadley has the advantage on the feet but that going to the ground could be dangerous for him against Alan Nascimento. I don’t see it that way. I actually think Hadley’s advantage in this fight extends everywhere the fight may go.
I believe that Hadley firmly holds the grappling advantage in this fight, and with Nascimento only having a 16% takedown defense, the fight is all but sure to get there in my opinion. Is Nascimento good enough on the ground to defend Hadley’s submission attempts – maybe – but more importantly than that I believe that Hadley will be disciplined enough to avoid danger and continue to apply heavy top pressure to Nascimento..
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AMANDA RIBAS – $7600
This is another against the grain female fight pick this week. Last week it was Loopy for us that was in direct opposition to most of the pro analysts, this week it is Amanda Ribas. Her opponent, Katlyn Chookagian, is a perfect matchup for her in my opinion. On the feet I believe that Ribas will be competitive with Chookagian, and adds a bit more power over her blonde counterpart. Then on the ground she is miles above Chookagian as far as I am concerned.
Ribas doesn’t take her opponents to the ground at an insane rate, but she does average almost two takedowns per fifteen minutes and Chookagian has around a 55% takedown defense, so those two takedowns should definitely come in this fight. Not only that, but Ribas also has a statistically better strike differential, is more accurate, and is less hittable than Chookagian. Ribas has the statistical advantage everywhere in this fight, and the one thing she has shown poorly against – power – is not something that Katlyn Chookagian even remotely possesses.
THE PIVOT
NICK MAXIMOV – $9300 / ANDRE PETROSKI – $6900
If there was ever a fight that could trigger a panic attack for me, making a pick in this one would be the one. Maximov is definitely the more established and proven commodity but Petroski has shown that he has the offensive wrestling skills to be a DraftKings beast as well and Maximov has not really been forced to defend many takedowns (only one) in the UFC. So there is a ton of what if around this fight in my opinion. Due to the enormous salary difference, there are enough potential savings for me to explore what if a bit here and there.
I think that Petroski’s biggest question mark is his gas tank, in every single fight I have seen him in that exits the first round you can visibly see the fatigue set in. That didn’t stop him from finishing both of his UFC fights so far in the third round despite being very obviously tired, but those fights were against other people that are many levels below Nick Maximov.
I think the standing battle advantage goes to Andre Petroski, neither are great strikers, but Petroski throws with bad intentions and has the power to do damage if he connects. Early in the fight, during round one and maybe even into round two, I could see Petroski winning the ground exchanges as well, but as the fight goes on the advantage there is going to swing more and more into Maximov’s favor. If Maximov is able to find a finish though, I expect it to be later in the fight after Petroski has tired himself out firing haymakers and shooting for takedowns.
My heaviest exposure in this one will be to Petroski as I don’t believe he gets finished early, and his salary should be well worth it for cash games, plus carry a bit of tournament upside in the event that he can connect with a heavy handed punch or make something happen on the ground early with his heavy top pressure.
Maximov could easily be the guy scoring however and that warrants him a bit of tournament exposure in my opinion. The only thing I just don’t see happening is Maximov finishing this fight early, so for that reason I will be limiting exposure to Maximov and have just a sprinkle in case he gets an entire fight of control time and a late finish.
