On a PPV card there is always such a great amount of fights to choose from that my confidence level is strong in the core I put together. You can take a look at the core plays by clicking HERE. Please keep in mind that the core is predominantly intended for my cash lineups, and it may deviate greatly when it comes to tournament contests.
Things get hard when we go to fill out the remainder of the cash lineup and build the tournament lineup. There are so many fights to choose from that there is a strong need to be pretty spot on with the best scorers in each salary range. That holds especially true in multi-entry tournaments for anyone chasing the big bucks.
Below is a look into the fighters that I like from each salary range, which direction I take in the majority of my lineups is still up in the air, but I feel pretty good about the fighters that I am using to build those lineups. So let’s jump into my favorites and have a great UFC 274!
$9000 AND UP
ANDRE FIAHLO – $9500
Fiahlo was a late addition to this card, and his opponent is making his UFC debut on short notice as well. The odd part about this is that Fiahlo fought just three weeks ago. Granted he didn’t take much damage, but that is the turnaround of all turnarounds.
In this fight I do believe that there is a class difference between the two fighters, and personally expect a Fiahlo knockout or finish that will score huge for my DraftKings tournament lineup. Unfortunately I cannot truly be 100% confident in Fiahlo as he did manage to lose to Michel Pereira just two fights ago – so I will be using him as a tournament play only.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
BRANDON ROYVAL – $9300
Royval is always a fun fight, and in this one he is the most likely choice, but due to his kill or be killed style I tend to only consider him for tournaments. In this fight his opponent, Matt Schnell, is actually the more busy fighter and Royval is the more hittable fighter at only a 48% striking defense.
Those factors give me a little bit of pause at the idea of going with heavy exposure on Brandon Royval, but in a win he is almost sure to score pretty highly. So in short, not my most confident selection here, but I will have him sprinkled into my tournament lineups.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
NORMA DUMONT – $9100
Norma Dumont is a fairly solid play for cash because she will likely win this fight in a three round decision. Dumont is a solid striker, with great takedown defense, and the ability to steal takedowns herself. Her opponent, Macy Chiasson, isn’t exactly takedown heavy and historically has never really used her length advantage that well – so I don’t really expect much difference here.
That being said, Norma Dumont has given up some control time against the cage in both of her last two opponents. That could be somewhat concerning if Macy is able to get the clinch against the cage, but even in that scenario a finish is unlikely.
CASH ONLY
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
TRACY CORTEZ – $8700
Tracy Cortez is coming off a bit of a layoff, but she is the epitome of a wrestling beast. If this fight goes as most expect it to, with Cortez getting numerous takedowns and racking up the control time on the ground, then she is going to score an insane amount of points – even in a decision.
Her opponent, Melissa Gatto, is one of those sneaky dangerous fighters however. Sijara Eubanks found out, but let's not act as though Gatto was dominating that fight, she was not. In fact she likely won that fight due to the poor gas of Eubanks and a nicely placed body kick. While the kick is still an option, Cortez does not have those gas tank issues. Due to the dangerousness of Gatto however, I would not consider Cortez for any of my cash lineups and intend on making her one of the tournament pieces that I have heavier exposure to.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
CHARLES OLIVEIRA – $8500
First and foremost, I like Gaethje in this fight. This fight is very close however and Oliveira has consistently proved me wrong about him over and over again, so I plan to have exposure to both fighters. Oliveira is more than capable standing, and if he gets your back you might as well get ready to tap – so don’t give up your back right? – well it just isn’t that simple. Oliveira’s most dangerous quality in my opinion is his ability to gain an advantageous position in a scramble, so at any moment he can be incredibly dangerous.
In Oliveira’s last two fights however, he was stunned early on by the striking of his opponents. In both of those fights, against Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler, he was able to recover and battle back to get the victories. My reservation here is that I just don’t see Gaethje not putting away a hurt opponent, no matter how tough he is. I want some exposure because Charles Oliveira is a great fighter and very dangerous, but ultimately I will have more exposure to Gaethje.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
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FRANCISCO TRINALDO – $8200
This is a very interesting fight, and I have seen many analysts on the other side of it by choosing Danny Roberts. More often than not the age difference is cited as the reasoning along with Danny Roberts having several fights end in knockout. Part of me wonders if anyone took the time to take a look at the list of opponents in those fights however. Danny Roberts has predominantly fought people that I had to Google. Now by no means would I consider myself a “Betting/DFS Professional” – but I have been watching UFC for a long time. If I have to Google you, there is a solid chance you are not a quality opponent.
For that reason, and that reason alone, I am heavy on Francisco Trinaldo and I will just have to hope that this isn’t the fight where his chin decides to retire. I believe the odds of Trinaldo winning this fight are significantly better than the salary amounts or betting lines would lead you to believe. He has a much better history when it comes to the level of competition, and he has never been knocked out in the UFC, which seems to be the consensus path to victory for Roberts. I expect a pretty clear decision here for Trinaldo, and a possibility of a finish as well because Danny has been knocked out himself several times in the octagon.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
UNDER $8000
JUSTIN GAETHJE – $7700
Here is my main event winner! Justin Gaethje is an aggressive striker that goes into every fight to engage in an all out war. The level of enjoyment that is achieved watching him fight is next level for me. The only fight he has had in the UFC that has gone the distance was his last one against Michael Chandler, and let’s be honest about that, that one probably shouldn’t have gone the distance – one of those guys should have been in a puddle of brain matter in the center of the octagon.
Gaethje has incredible output churning out over seven significant strikes per minute, and also has sneaky good wrestling to keep this fight standing – even if he shys away from displaying it. My read on this fight is simply that Oliveira isn’t going to be able to withstand the barrage of aggression that comes with Justin Gaethje the way that he has with previous opponents. Is it possible he could? Maybe, and that is why I will not be targeting this fight in either direction for cash, but I believe it to be unlikely and will have heavy exposure to Gaethje for tournaments.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
MELISSA GATTO – $7500
Ultimately I am not incredibly excited about using Gatto as a lineup piece for really any contest, but there are two reasons why I will be using her as needed for both cash and tournaments. First, and probably most importantly, she is the lock of the week – until math tells me that isn’t a thing I will continue to treat it as a thing. Second, Gatto is undefeated and proved herself dangerous against Eubanks, despite how much Sijara’s cardio may have played into that.
While I certainly am not as confident in a Gatto win as Jacob is to make her the LOTW, I am fairly confident that even if she loses, she probably doesn’t get finished. So she will either give me a decent floor in cash games, or a big score in a win for tournaments. That makes her a very viable play that I will have some exposure to for DraftKings.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
MACY CHIASSON – $7100
Macy has always been one of my guilty pleasures when it comes to including her in a DraftKings lineup. This event however, I am a bit more tepid on including her so I will limit it to just tournaments and keep my exposure pretty low. She is more of a salary play this time around for me.
If Macy can use her length well, and win the clinch exchanges along the cage, she has a fairly decent chance of stealing a decision and would likely score in the 80-90 range in a win. For her salary this week that would make her valuable. In a loss however, she could be virtually non-existent in this fight, and for that reason I wouldn’t consider her for my cash lineups for the first time in a long time when she is fighting.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
MATT SCHNELL – $6900
When it comes to picking sub $7000 fighters this week there are not any that truly stand out to me, so this is surely just a punt play in my lineups. If I had to pick one that could win however, it is easily Schnell for me. He is very active and has a few submission wins on his record, but unfortunately he has been knocked out several times as well.
The fight he is heading into should turn into an all out war at some point, and granted Schnell is not favored to come out of that a winner, there is a solid chance however as Royval is very hittable. Basically if I punt with Schnell in tournaments I will be hoping he can snatch up a submission in a scramble.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
So that is the list of value fighters that I am seeing on this card for Draftkings. Maybe this will be the week that I can perform better than second place in the We Want Picks contest. Beyond that however I am looking forward to having a consecutive winning week from a monetary perspective to get me back on track from the beating I took two weeks ago.
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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