Now that I have our core solidified with our last article it is time to move onto filling out my roster for both cash and tournament contests. For those unfamiliar with how I form my roster, I always want to concern myself with cash contests first, and then tournaments are an afterthought. Cash contest wins will keep me playing long enough to luck into some tournament victories. I might actually hold the record for second place finishes in the We Want Picks DraftKings League. I might have to ask Angelo for a stat check.
If you missed the article on the core plays you can view it HERE. One of the things that is pretty evident this event is that there are numerous fades in the higher salary ranges (Pannie should be a fade but I am conceding to eating her salary for cash) outside of Sabatini, and no real underdogs that I would find myself super confident about getting a win except potentially Muhammad. Let’s take a look and see what makes sense, it is going to be a wild week!
$9000 AND UP
MARTIN BUDAY – $9000
Martin Buday is making his official UFC debut (contender series notwithstanding) against fan favorite Chris Barnett. Buday is a very large man that knows very well how to use his weight. Based on his contender series performance it was quite clear that he can lean on you against the fence and drop HUGE shots – even to some really obscure places – that will make you question your decision to step into the cage with him.
While I would love to see a spinning heel kick knockout, like every other red blooded UFC fan, I just don’t believe that it happens here. I don’t really think Barnett is that good in relation to other UFC Heavyweight talent and while he is always the shorter fighter I expect him to have a really hard time dealing with the size difference in this matchup.
The only reason I am going to limit this play to tournament contests is because I recognize that there is a world where Barnett connects with something ridiculous and gets the big shot finish. One thing I am positive of however, is that this fight is going to produce a big score and likely will be a finish – so having the winner will probably be needed for tournaments.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
DEVIN CLARK – $8600
This is a fight that I could see being on either side of this week. The Devin Clark side to me makes more sense as he is the bigger fighter and better wrestler, which is almost always a solid DraftKings recipe, but he could just as easily get finished or out worked by Knight who should have the better cardio. Really what I believe this fight will come down to is who lands their takedowns.
Both Clark and Knight are capable of taking the fight to the ground, but both of them also have pretty bad takedown defense as well. So this fight is going to be a crap shoot as far as who is the successful party but I do believe Clark to be the better wrestler/grappler and he has the slightly better (albeit still terrible) takedown defense.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
GADZHI OMARGADZHIEV – $8400
There should be some kind of automatic feature on DraftKings that plugs in any Dagestani wrestler under $9000 immediately into your lineup. This fight is the co-main event, which is odd considering neither fighter has an established UFC presence. To be fair, both Omargadzhiev and his opponent look like they have the goods, but for me it once again comes down to what scores on DraftKings and that is wrestling.
I could definitely see Barralho finding his target with a big shot that could potentially change the course of the fight, but short of that happening this should be a one sided domination in my opinion. It is rarely wise to bank on the fluke occurrence over something tried and true like dominant wrestling.
I like Omargadzhiev for both cash and tournament contests because his wrestling presents us with a nice floor and also gives us the opportunity for a big score even in a three round decision. It is the type of play I would personally never pass up on DraftKings.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
TREY OGDEN – $8300
Trey Ogden is making his UFC debut with a fair amount of hype surrounding him, enough hype to make him the favorite over a 3-1 established UFC fighter. The favorite status is probably for good reason as he looks very solid everywhere. Ogden will definitely be the best striker and wrestler in the cage during this fight – but might not be the best BJJ fighter in there despite being really solid in that department as well.
Common sense is telling me that Ogden would be a great play for either tournaments or cash contests, but the sliver of thought that is holding onto Ogden getting too excited and rushing into a triangle or something like that is giving me pause at making him a focal part of my DraftKings strategy this week.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
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RAFA GARCIA – $8200
Somewhere along the line there have been numerous people that have decided this fight is even, including the odds makers and DraftKings. I just don’t see it that way, maybe I am missing something, but I expect a severely one sided decision here. The only somewhat concerning aspect of this fight is that Garcia tends to be very inactive on top, which has contributed to his upside down striking differential despite tallying twelve takedowns in his last two fights.
One of the reasons that Garcia has a striking output issue on top is because he generally hunts for submissions on the ground at the expense of position. Either that or he is just genuinely terrible at holding position. Either way you want to view that, Ronson is not on the same level as Garcia in my opinion and the line on this fight is just disrespectful. Ronson has poor takedown defense, poor striking output, and has yet to achieve a win in the UFC after his last fight was overturned. Garcia will dominate this fight in my opinion, and it should come with a ton of points.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
UNDER $8000
JORDAN LEAVITT – $7900
Next we move to who I believe will be one of the most overlooked fighters on the card. Leavitt is a submission specialist that under normal circumstances finds it difficult to get the fight to a position where he can succeed. In this fight however, against up and coming fighter Trey Ogden, The Monkey King finds himself with a matchup against someone else that likes to play in the jiu jitsu realm.
Ogden probably has the advantage in the striking department, and the wrestling department as well, but even as good as he is – he is probably at a disadvantage in the BJJ department. Just keep it standing then right? Well one thing that I noticed is that when Ogden manages to knock people down or stun them he tends to rush in almost immediately. This could spell doom for him and a big score for Leavitt at low ownership.
This is a play that comes with huge risk as well however, so my intention would be to keep the exposure small and maybe even limit him to multiple entry contests for my lineups.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
WILLIAM KNIGHT – $7600
After his last performance, it almost pains me to write his name here. Ultimately we will just chalk that one up to the terrible weight miss, but I tend to believe it was more than that. That being said, Knight still has bricks in his hands and could end this fight in the blink of an eye.
Unfortunately I do believe that is his only path to victory here unless he shows up in phenomenal shape and able to manage the fight to a three round decision. Because of his power you will need him in the event that he catches Clark, so I will be considering him for a very small percentage of my tournament lineups.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
SAM HUGHES – $7300
My female core play this week of Pannie Kianzad is one that is pretty questionable, and I am going back to the questionable well again here with Sam Hughes. To be clear I highly doubt she wins, I just believe her to be one of the better value plays on a card where value is very scarce.
Hughes will last the three rounds, I don’t have a doubt in my mind about that. If she can manage to discover how to wrestle she might even be able to steal a round or two – Nunes is coming off a long layoff as well.
For only $7300 with what I would consider a three round guarantee – and an outside chance to steal a decision – it makes Hughes an easy lock as a value play for cash lineups should I need to create room elsewhere.
CASH ONLY
CHRIS BARNETT – $7200 / WU YANAN – $6900
I don’t expect either of these fighters to win, but on a card where it's a struggle to find value these might be the best punt plays possible for tournaments. Being right about someone with a low salary is a must to win tournaments, so rolling the dice here could be a path to victory.
Chris Barnett is the most risky of the two in my opinion, he is knockout or bust in this fight best I can tell. The chances of that knockout are slim to none, but if it happens he will score very high for his salary.
Wu Yanan will most likely lose her fight to a decision. I do believe that she stands a decent chance of seeing the score cards however, and that always includes at least a certain minimum score and a possibility to steal 30 extra points in a decision.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
This is going to be one hell of a ride in an event with more questions than answers. The mid range is for sure where lineups will feast or famine this week so my sincere suggestion would be to not be afraid to move out of the punt plays and sink below most of the top salaries as well for tournaments.
Time for me to get my lineups set, make some really tough decisions, and hope for the best. One thing is for sure, the UFC rarely disappoints, so we will surely be in for a very entertaining evening.
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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