This week’s core article left a ton of room, especially for cash games, to really pack your lineup with the fighters you think are going to really rack up the points this week. Without a doubt in my mind there will be a good chunk of salary left on the table with my lineup this week. Like I stated last week, this could mean big wins, or it could mean embarrassing losses. It is just one of those kinds of weeks for the UFC.
In today’s article we are going to look at what value I still see available on the card to add to the core that was written up Wednesday. Each salary range is covered as there is potentially tons of room left for me to get creative with my build. The write up will include all viable options that I am considering as I don’t want to be mistaken for providing lineups by the powers that be at DraftKings.
If you missed the core plays article, you can click here to take a look at it so you know exactly what I started working with before getting to this point. Let’s go ahead and take a look at the rest of the card below!
$9000 AND OVER
MAGOMED ANKALAEV – $9600
Ankalaev is the Russian that is not known for his wrestling, but rather his striking. He has solid power, but it is not overwhelming, but excels in the technical aspect of his striking game. Just because wrestling isn’t his first choice doesn’t mean that he isn’t able to wrestle as well. Ankalaev is a very well rounded fighter and his opponent, Thiago Santos seems to be somewhat on the decline of his career.
Santos could stand a chance to end this with a power shot, but it is unlikely in my opinion and this fight should be a fairly easy victory for Ankalaev. The question is, how many points does he score? Ankalaev is a great striker, solid wrestler, and seems to have a great fight IQ – but he is kind of low volume and has seemed perfectly fine coasting to a one sided decision in the past.
Magomed Ankalaev is probably a better cash play than he is a tournament play, but if you think he just jumps in and handles business, then he could definitely be viable for both types of contests. Especially in a landscape like the one this weekend where so many fights could go either way.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
SONG YADONG – $9200
I am significantly less confident in Song Yadong than I am Ankalaev, but he potentially has a much higher upside for tournaments. Yadong is a fighter that is comfortable on his feet and easily has the power to obtain a finish. In this particular contest, his opponent Marlon Moraes, has a reputation for being deficient in the cardio aspect of his game. There could be a huge score here. I wouldn’t shy away from Yadong in any contest, but he certainly has huge finish potential for tournaments – if for no other reason than Moraes gets tired.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
$8000 – $8900 RANGE
AZAMAT MURZAKANOV – $8800
This event is loaded with contender series fighters. I get it, they are always a risk. Trying to make solid observations from their regional or contender fights is like watching Alabama play some terrible division two school and saying they are winning the Championship before you have seen them against Georgia or Ohio State. You never really know what you have until the competition level steps up.
Fortunately for me, in this contest Murzakanov is about to fight Tafon Nchukwi, and I am just not a believer in Nchukwi. This wouldn’t be a play that I would make for cash, in fact I would probably stay away from this fight for cash. For tournaments however, I definitely want some exposure here, and I can’t bring myself to the point of wanting that exposure with Nchukwi.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
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GILLIAN ROBERTSON – $8500
Gillian Robertson is a very consistent fighter. You know what you are going to get with her. She is going to go out, try to get the fight to the ground with herself in the dominant position and put that work in. Sometimes it works out, and sometimes it really doesn’t. The one constant is that it always kind of goes the way you expect it to with Gillian. She doesn’t lose to low level fighters you will never hear of again, and she doesn’t beat the up and coming high end fighters that you expect her to be beaten by.
In this fight she is fighting another veteran in J.J. Aldrich, who basically fights the exact same way as Robertson. I would probably lend the striking advantage to Aldrich, place them about even in the grappling and wrestling department, and then give Gillian the submission and BJJ advantage. I could see going in either direction with this fight, but the way each fighter would win dictates the play. If Aldrich wins she probably gets a decision. If Robertson wins, while she could win by decision, she is just as live for a finish in my opinion. Great tournament option here.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
UNDER $8000
DAMON JACKSON – $7800
Full disclosure, I don’t know a single thing about this guy except what it says on paper. I have never seen him fight, and didn’t bother going to look up tape on him. Here are the two things I do know, and the basis for me including him into my potential lineups.
First, his nickname is “The Leech”. Take a minute to appreciate how badass of a nickname that really is. That man is going to attach himself to you and literally drain the lifeforce from within you. I was sold here honestly. As if that wasn’t enough however, he is fighting Kamuela Kirk. There is a short list of fighters in the UFC that I will never attempt to play again, and Kirk is firmly on that list. He has always been a let down for me, and I can’t see this going any differently.
CASH/TOURNAMENT
J.J. ALDRICH – $7700
As stated above in the Gillian Robertson write up. This fight is about as even as a fight gets. The biggest difference is how each one of these ladies would get their win. Aldrich would win a decision, and there isn’t really a question about it in my mind.
Aldrich will try to keep this fight standing as much as possible, because quite honestly, the ground is where the biggest advantage in the fight lies for Robertson. Not to say that Aldrich won’t utilize takedowns, because she can and Robertson takedown defense isn’t the best…but don’t expect her to stay down there. Aldrich could be a great play for my cash lineups because she has a pretty decent floor in three rounds unless she gets submitted.
CASH ONLY
ALEX CACERES – $7100
This might be my favorite tournament play on the card. Bruce LeeRoy is a showman, currently on a five fight win streak, and in my opinion is the better fighter in all aspects except power. Two of his last five fights were won by submission. He does look to take the fight to the ground from time to time as well.
His opponent, Sodiq Yusuff, is a striker with plenty of power in his hands. This could be a knockout for Yusuff but I really believe Caceres will manage to get through the storm and make this fight hell for Sodiq. At $7100 it is very much a long shot but it is one that I actually feel really comfortable with.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
A.J. FLETCHER – $6900
Here we have another contender series fighter. Fletcher probably has the toughest task of the event when compared to the other contender series fighters. He is fighting Matthew Semelsberger who is a somewhat established veteran. Fletcher did manage to go out and make a highlight in his last fight on the contender series with a flying knee shortly after exhibiting a great level change into a takedown.
The questionable aspect here however is that the guy he was fighting in that fight is not even remotely close to the level of a Matthew Semelsberger and he was able to get up from the takedown quickly. Aside from eating the knee to the face, he was also pretty even in the striking department with Fletcher.
So this is a punt play if we wanted to define it. I don’t actually think Fletcher wins, but I think he could win if he manages to wrestle well and keep the fight on his terms. I expect either a single digit score here or a dominant 100+ points score. Don’t see anything in between happening.
TOURNAMENT ONLY
I will be back next week to give you more totally average fight picks and analysis.
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