Jorge Masvidal didn’t exactly bring it home for us in last week’s core. He scored exceptionally low for a fight that went five rounds. It is not that the loss wasn’t expected, but I certainly expected him to keep it off of the ground better than he did so he could strike more. He did a solid job in the first and then again in the fifth. Just looking at the middle of the fight however, he could change his nickname to “Serta Sleeper”. Marina Rodriguez also scored much lower than I personally expected, but you likely still would have been in cash games with her low scoring win depending on who you had around her. If you had her, Jorge Masvidal, and Tagir Ulanbekov like I did, you ate ramen for dinner on Sunday.
Some of the plays that actually did well last week were the Rafael Dos Anjos play, he did in fact end up in the optimal, scoring over 150 points. If you decided to fade here you probably didn’t perform too well in your contests, missing RDA was close to impossible to recover from. The swap for tournaments that I wrote up, moving to Colby from Jorge was also a good play. A fairly obvious one for sure, but a good play nonetheless. Covington also scored over 150 fantasy points.
This week, for UFC Vegas 50, is giving me the feeling of the kind of week where there is no middle ground. I am going to either win everything I enter, or I am going to finish dead last. The reasoning is pretty straightforward. When I looked at the fight card this week, before the DraftKings salaries were released, I was dialed in on certain fighters. Most of those fighters ended up being the dog and being given a very low salary. That obviously gives me a ton of freedom on the core. Let’s take a look at what I will be building my lineups around this week.
THE CORE PLAYS
MIRANDA MAVERICK – $9400
Miranda Maverick is my Marina Rodriguez this week. She is safe, she will win this fight. Will she do it in a decisive enough fashion to justify $9400? Maybe. Unfortunately it doesn’t get more confident than this in this spot. Maverick is a bully, and Mazo is the kind of girl that I would expect her to be able to bully.
I just believe that Miranda Maverick is a different level of athlete. I was on the wrong side of her last one, so it might just be blind bias. Erin Blanchfield handled her pretty definitively. I will argue to the death that she won the fight against Maycee Barber however. This win will be clear enough to not be in question on the score cards. For tournaments I may decide to move off of her as finishes in the women’s divisions are much more rare. A finish here is definitely possible, but I believe a dominant decision is much more likely.
Javid Basharat – $8700
Basharat is the closest thing on this card to a sure thing in my opinion. He is a very talented wrestler that will bring the fight to the ground and control it there. I believe it was Angelo that mentioned how scary it is when wrestlers have a negative strike differential recently, not a concern here. Javid’s strike differential is exactly where it should be. The only real question mark is the level of competition that he has fought, which is always a slight concern with the contender series guys.
His opponent, Trevin Jones, has moderate take down defense at best, coming in at 71%. Jones has also been outstruck in two of his last three fights, so striking isn’t even a clear path for him to get this win. Jones does pose a submission threat, but I believe in Basharat’s ability to avoid those situations. I am expecting a high enough score for Basharat to be viable for both tournaments and cash games.
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TERRANCE MCKINNEY – $7200
How did we get here? McKinney once again as a big dog, incredibly cheap on DraftKings, and in just a great spot to add value to our lineup. I wish I had a better reason for this play, but here it is, he hasn’t failed me yet. This will be the third time, in three UFC fights, that Terrance McKinney makes it into my lineup. The first time he scored over one hundred points. The second time he scored over one hundred points. This third time, he has my blessing to only score me 90 points in a dominant decision.
McKinney’s opponent, Drew Dober, is the much larger man in terms of appearance. That doesn’t actually translate to the way he fights however. Dober is very strike heavy, and does not look to bring the fight to the ground much. In fact he has proven over his UFC career to be really easy to take down, sporting only a 55% takedown defense.
I have been hearing tons of great things about McKinney’s ability to wrestle as well, but his fights haven’t lasted long enough to really see it. Until proven otherwise or until we see a massive salary bump, Terrance McKinney will be a fixture in my lineup. I just believe in him.
THE PIVOT
ALEX PEREIRA – $8900 / BRUNO SILVA – $7300
The questionable fight for me this time around is Alex Pereira versus Bruno Silva. Everything in my heart wants Pereira to win in highlight fashion, but my head is telling me a different story. Silva is the much more experienced fighter, and likely the more well-rounded fighter, coming in at a $7300 salary. That is really hard to pass up.
Flip the coin however and I could easily see Pereira winning by knockout. That knockout would definitely make Pereira a solid play as well at $8900. In fact, if the fight goes like that, he would probably be more valuable than a Miranda Maverick win at $8400. Regardless of the actual winner, one thing I am fairly certain of is that this fight has a great chance of being a high score.
Due to only being sure of the fight and not the winner. I am going to go with Bruno Silva for cash at $7300. This will allow me plenty of room to add a few high priced pieces to the cash lineup. For tournaments however I think both are great options and would likely choose to have exposure to both in different contests. Although my exposure to Pereira would be lower than my exposure to Silva.
My cash core here leaves enough room to go in any direction that I end up in at the end of the week. My tournament core leaves less room, especially when using Alex Pereira, but again I could always move off Maverick to free up some space. Not to mention that there are tons of great value options on this card that can be used as well. We will go over those in the next article.