What’s going on everybody! Welcome to We Want Picks! My name is Josh and I will be posting my DraftKings thoughts on this website each and every week. My format will consist of two specific articles each week. To be clear however, I am not a pro, a shark, a guru, or anything else that would lead you to believe that I am somehow better at this game than you. I am just a regular fight fan that really enjoys playing in the WeWantPicks DraftKings League each week.
The first article will consist of my core plays for DraftKings that week. Generally there will be one pivot that I will make between cash and tournament play. Now DraftKings does heavily frown on giving away complete lineups – so I won’t be doing that – but what I will be doing is providing a nice set of building blocks in this article to base building your lineup around.
The second article which will come later in the week will discuss some of the remaining fighters on the card that I find value in from a DraftKings perspective. This will likely consist of mostly value plays (or live dogs if we speak gambling) and the only higher priced fighters involved in this would be fighters I consider viable only as tournament options.
THE CORE PLAYS
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS – $7300
Originally I had every intention of placing Dos Anjos’ opponent in my lineup, Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev has dropped from the fight however and has been replaced by Renato Moicano. To be perfectly honest, I am still not sure that Dos Anjos wins this fight. He is definitely the better striker of the two in my opinion, but Moicano is an outstanding grappler and submission specialist.
Due to Dos Anjos now being an overwhelming favorite however when we look at the implied probability on Tapology, I have to assume that he is going to be so chalky you almost have to have him in your lineup. If he loses he will likely hurt 65%-70% of your field along with you. If he wins you probably won’t be able to compete without him. At $7300 he is all but guaranteed a place in the optimal lineup in a win.
UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV – $9600
Going into this breakdown, I want you to be aware that I know $9600 is a steep price to pay in DraftKings. Full disclosure, I wouldn’t pay it in most scenarios either. This time around however, that price point is getting us an absolute workhorse from the mountains of Dagestan. When has that ever been a losing formula?
Nurmagomedov was supposed to fight Jack Shore originally on March 19th, but withdrew from that fight and then scheduled to fight Brian Kelleher two weeks earlier at UFC 272. Kelleher is a guy that I love to watch because of his heart, but he is not nearly the wrestler that Shore is, and Nurmagomedov will most likely ragdoll him around the octagon. We are looking for a minimum of 120 points from Nurmagomedov here – otherwise this play might fall short.
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MARINA RODRIGUEZ – $9300
Marina Rodriguez is one of the most impressive pure striking female fighters of this era. Her activity level is very good, averaging over five significant strikes per minute, and her only real struggles in the octagon have come from opponents with a strong wrestling background. Her opponent in this fight is not that. Yan Xiaonan is a very capable striker in her own right, but lacks the pop on her punches and stopping power that Marina Rodriguez has.
Xiaonan did have success with takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz – landing five in that fight – but her ability to take anyone down has been non-existent in every other fight for the most part. This fight should stay standing. This fight should be fought at a lightning fast pace as both fighters are incredibly volume heavy strikers. This fight should end with Marina Rodriguez’s hand raised as she passes the eye test as the more polished and powerful fighter.
I would likely consider a pivot from Rodriguez in tournaments. Her salary is just a bit much and really limits the places you can find leverage in tournaments. You could make it work, but it would be tight. More details will be provided below.
THE PIVOT
COLBY COVINGTON – $9400 / JORGE MASVIDAL – $6800
So this is where decisions need to be made. The main event features one fighter who is likely going to win the fight pretty decisively in Colby Covington. Unfortunately – Mr. Covington is coming in at an outrageous $9400 salary. That is a large number to swallow when I have already packed my core with a fighter at $9600 and another at $9300. That means it is time to think about how we see this fight playing out and how that script would affect our lineup.
No matter who wins this fight, they will score well. If the fight goes as most expect it to, Covington will either win by stoppage or in a dominating decision. If Masvidal somehow manages to win this fight, it is most likely going to be from a stoppage scoring him huge numbers. Call me a non-believer, but I don’t see a chance for Masvidal to win this fight over five rounds.
That being said, Masvidal could survive the five rounds and take it to a decision. I do see that as a possible outcome. If he does that he would likely score more in his loss than some fighters on the card in a win – or at least in the same ballpark. For that reason I will be using Masvidal for cash games so I can pack my lineup with high end fighters and still keep a somewhat reasonable floor with Masvidal. For tournaments however, because you will need to hit six for six and have a bit of ownership leverage as well to win, I would go with Covington.
Covington being added to the lineup leaves you in a tough spot for the last two fighters when looking through a salary lens. I would consider pivoting off of Rodriguez for tournaments as well if you don’t find two very low priced fighters you are comfortable with.
