Another week of plenty of regional MMA that falls on bad timing for me. About an hour ago I finished my first test of the year (it did not go well). This weekend we have the UFC's event in the APEX as well as plenty of other shows taking place around the world. The other weekend I watched RIZIN 52 live and I enjoyed it so much I will start to cover RIZIN on here as well. I will go over the key fights on each regional card and do a write up on the more intriguing fights. The one exception is Cage Warriors 202 which I will write about separately tomorrow as it is now 1 am.
CAGE WARRIORS 201
Admittedly not the strongest Cage Warriors card we have seen recently. but seems like they have saved the talent for CW 202. The card has suffered from some cancellations as Alexander Loof was supposed to be on this card and he always puts on bangers. The card is broadcast on UFC Fight Pass at 03:00 PM ET on Friday.
AIDEN LEE (14-10) vs. INGLESSON DE LARA (10-3) – Featherweight
Lee has been a pretty effective veteran for Cage Warriors. He turns away a lot of prospects with his grappling and fight IQ. He recently beat Damon Wilson who was on DWCS last year. He will certainly want to get this fight down as de Lara is a boxer. He was on a really good run but he lost in a main event spot in the LFA. That fight ended up being a wild brawl which was fun to watch at least. de Lara didn't show great technique there but he did show decent cardio and the ability to fight if it gets tough. I watched his most recent fight on YouTube where he lost by KO in round 1. The fight only lasted about 90 seconds but de Lara looked terrible. He was fighting a jobber but got hurt by a leg kick early, touched up by jabs, and then knocked out. If I hadn't watched his most recent fight maybe I would side with de Lara but Lee isn't a victim on the feet and he will be the better grappler out of the two.
Pick: Aiden Lee by submission. Low confidence.
KONSTANTINOS NTELIS (10-3) vs. LEON ALIU (11-5) – Lightweight (161 lbs)
Odd fight here but should just be a lay up for Ntelis. Aliu actually fought on DWCS in 2022 at middleweight against Brunno Fereira. Since then it has been downhill for him as he is now 1-4 in his last 5 with 3 losses by TKO. He probably gets knocked out here as well. He is way too slow for welterweight, let alone somehow cutting more to 161 lbs. He just stands upright without moving his head. Ntelis isn't anything too special in my opinion but he is a fun striker at least. He has a wins over two Italians I rated highly once (Simone Patrizzi and Michael Pagani), even knocking out Patrizi in 90 seconds. The Pagani win could age well too as he may be someone we see on DWCS at some point. Aliu can wrestle and he will be massive in the cage compared to Ntelis, but if the fight is on the feet it should be Ntelis hunting for a KO.
Pick: Konstantinos Ntelis by KO/TKO. High confidence.
CFFC 151
Admittedly I am not too crazy about this card. This is another card that got hurt by cancellations as there were some bangers booked here at once point. There are definitely a few fighters on my radar on the card such as Morquez Forest but the main attraction of this card is the heavyweight fghts. It is no secret that the UFC's heavyweight division is weak and needs a shake up and maybe the featured bouts here could help that problem.
LARRY GONZALES (8-4) vs. VITOR RESENDE (5-1) – Heavyweight
This was supposed to be Larry Gonzales vs. Tafon Nchukwi. That would have been fun since Nchukwi was in the UFC at 205 lbs, and actually just beat Chris Daukaus. Resende is nearly 36 years old but he has fought for the PFL once if that counts for any sort of name value. Gonzales is interesting as I remember him slobbing it out against Billy Ray Valdez in the LFA. Both guys looked like two drunk idiots in the McDonalds parking lot, but Gonzales showed a strong chin. After that fight I didn't expect him to become anything but he just submitted Anthony Guarascio who was on DWCS last year, and is also on this card. Even watching the Guarascio fight I wasn't super impressed by his striking as he didn't really throw anything. He started the second round super strong with a big shot and then got a take down from it. I will talk about this later but Guarascio literally trains in his garage so he didn't know what to do when the fight got down. The problem with Resende is that he has only fought once in 3 years against a guy with 7 KO losses, but he actually looked pretty good in that fight. He is a 6'9″ heavyweight and he is surprisingly fast and athletic. It is hard to know how will look against Gonzales as Gonzales is gonna be hard to knock out, and he may look to wrestle. If the fight stays standing I like Resende though as it does look like he might have some actual skill.
Pick: Vitor Resende by KO. Low confidence.
ANTHONY GUARASCIO (3-2) vs. JACKSON STANFORD (2-0) – Heavyweight
So it turns out training with just a heavy bag in the garage isn't a good base for MMA. Guarascio was on a roll but he has now lost two in a row including that KO loss on DWCS. He is a powerful boxer with surprisingly good boxing technique but he doesn't really offer anything else. I didn't see much of Stanford but I did see him shoot for take downs as soon as the fight starts which I like here. As I said before I don't think Guarascio has any idea what to do if he gets taken down. That being said Stanford's striking defense looks concerning so maybe we see a Guarascio KO. Going to pick Stanford based on the wrestling ability only.
Pick: Jackson Stanford by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
LFA 228
This is a very strong card. I would even argue it is one of the strongest cards the LFA has put on in the US. Now that they aren't on UFC Fight Pass I would assume LFA is going to try and become a bigger organization than just a feeder, but that is just me speculating. LFA is now broadcast on Vice TV, and this event will take place on Friday at 07:30 pm ET. Prelims can be watched on the LFA YouTube channel.
CHRISTIAN NATIVIDAD (8-0) vs. ADRIAN GARCIA (10-3-1) – Flyweight
Christian Natividad is the brother of Kevin Natividad who was in the UFC for a short period. He is a fun striker with good wrestling to match. Unfortunately he has been inactive recently but that is due to injuries. His boxing is his best skill set but he hasn't been able to find many finishes as he does struggling to finish opponents after hurting them. Adrian Garcia is a good prospect himself. He is more of a wrestler than anything, but like Natividad he also doesn't get many finishes either. He can threaten submissions but of course we haven't seen him get one so far as a pro. Natividad is the better striker out of the two and I think his wrestling is string enough to stop Garcia's take down attempts. Natividad might shoot for take downs himself even. This is a three round main event and I expect it to go to the scorecards either way.
Pick: Christian Natividad by decision. Medium confidence.
AMARI SENGSAVANH (8-0) vs. CARLOS TARDIO (11-2) – Bantamweight
This is an obvious lay up to get Sengsavanh in the UFC or on DWCS. A fun fact is that he is actually a full time insurance salesman. So far in his career we haven't seen him tested against anyone good and nothing will change here. Bolivia has no regional scene at all just look at the state of Jose Medina, plus this Tardio guy lost to a 3-6 fighter in his last time out. Sengsavanh is a very fun striker but we won't learn anything new about him here.
Pick: Amari Sengsavanh by KO/TKO. High confidence.
LESLIE HERNANDEZ (5-3) vs. ALEKSANDRA SAVICHEVA (6-2) – Women's Strawweight
If Savicheva wins this we probably see her in the a big promotion since she is attractive and the face card wins in WMMA. From what I saw from her I don't think she is very good though. She is a striker with no ground game at all. Hernandez isn't a good grappler either but if anyone is going to take the fight down it should be her. Hernandez striking isn't too bad either as she did give Julieta Martinez a tough test on DWCS.
Pick: Leslie Hernandez by decision. Low confidence.
JACOBI JONES (8-3) vs. BENNY OROZCO (5-2) – Lightweight
I knew JaCobi Jones was a bit fraudulent as he was getting way overhyped by the media heading into his DWCS fight. I did correctly pick Daniel James Allen to win that fight as a big underdog. Unfortunately we haven't seen Allen fight again. Jones lost another fight after that, but is now on a two fight win streak and I think he has looked much improved. He is no longer super aggressive and his technique has looked way better. Shovkhal Churchaev was an interesting prospect as he has nearly 2 million followers on IG for some reason and Jones beat him last time out. Orozco is a wrestler but Jones has decent take down defense and as long as the fight is on the feet he should do more damage. If he wins we probably see Jones on DWCS and this time around I think he will be much more prepared. They probably give him an easy fight too instead of a risky test like Allen. As I said, Jones was crazy hyped going into DWCS in 2022. Not sure what the UFC/media/twitter saw in him as I certainly didn't agree, but it seems like UFC really want him.
CHRISTOPHER EWERT (7-1) vs. ANDREW STEWART (5-1) – Middleweight
Ewert looked like shit on the Contender Series. On the regional scene it looked like he had decent boxing ability, with decent cardio and enough aggression to wear his opponents down. Against Panferov he looked like a shell of himself and had a terrible performance. If Stewart wins this we may see him on DWCS but I don't rate him very highly. I actually think Ewert is the better boxer here but it's very hard to trust him.
Pick: Christopher Ewert by decision. Low confidence.
ALIK LORENZ (6-2) vs. GABRIEL THIMOTEO (5-6) – Light Heavyweight
Lorenz is back doing what he does best – padding his record. As I said in my break down when he fought on DWCS, Lorenz is awful. His striking technique is bad, his cardio is bad, his wrestling is bad. Concerningly this guy Thimoteo has been the distance against Joe Taylor and Uran Satybaldiev so Lorenz might struggle to finish him. But that was years ago. Lorenz manager must have some crazy connections to be pulling guys with losing records out of retirement to fight Lorenz.
Pick: Alik Lorenz by KO/TKO. High confidence.
ALIK LORENZ (6-2) vs. GABRIEL THIMOTEO (5-6) – Light Heavyweight
TUFF-N-UFF 152
Friday, 10 pm ET. UFC Fight Pass.
ANDREW GARRETTE (7-0) vs. STAV KOREN (7-0) – TUFF Bantamweight Championship
This is an interesting one as Stav Koren is probably the A-side in this fight, but I think he loses. Koren has been impressive recently with his grappling, appearing pretty much out of nowhere on LFA cards. He is 25 years old and definitely has space to improve. On the other hand, Garrette is 32. He is mostly a striker but his movement is quite stiff and his defense relies on head movement which is concerning. He recently knocked out Daniel Lacerda (legendary 0-5-1 UFC run) but it didn't go as you would expect. Lacerda failed a take down and Garrette landed some ground and pound and that was it. Admittedly I watched the fight on mute as I was at a lecture but either Lacerda's chin is complete and total dust or it was an injury. Another blast from the past for me is seeing Garrette beat Mo Miller. When Mo Miller was fighting on DWCS in 2021 I thought he was the real deal. He has a big time wrestling background, even winning on the show but not getting signed. Mo Miller has gone 3-6 since that DWCS performance, so let's just say my “scouting ability” has got a lot better than what it was in 2021 (surely people remember the Mo Miller hype though, right?). Although I don't think Garrette is a great striker I think he is better than Koren on the feet. He does have good TDD which we have seen tested in his career. I should add that if Garrette were to win I think he would be a fade on DWCS if he got the chance. As for Koren, if he was to win using his grappling I would hope to see him stay at Tuff-N-Uff to fight a couple more times as I think he would benefit from more experience before getting a jump up in competition.
Pick: Andrew Garrette by KO/TKO. Low confidence.
PANCRASE 361
I am by no means an expert on the Japanese scene and I don't claim to be, but have I mentioned how much I enjoyed RIZIN 52? This card will also be on UFC Fight Pass! The card takes place at 03:00 AM ET on Saturday but that is 6 pm for me. Would have been perfect but I am going to a live rugby game at that time. Most of the fighters I am interested in are getting lay ups so I will just name them:
Tokitaka Nakanishi (12-4)
Nakanishi is fighting a 3-3 opponent in the main event. He is a fun wrestler who won on Road to UFC last year. Maybe they bring him back.
Tatsuya Saika (14-6)
Saika is likely going to lose but I will talk about him anyway. Saika is the definition of a glass cannon. His fights are absolute chaos but he doesn't have the striking defense or the chin to handle the brawls he finds himself in. He fights Rafael Barbosa (16-5) who seems to have started a rampage on the Japanese regional scene after failing to get anything going in Brazil.
Yura Naito (7-2)
I unfortunately picked the King of Pancrase to defeat Ateba Gautier on DWCS. He gets a layup.
Daichi Kamiya (7-1)
Probably the most promising prospect on the card. Kamiya showed his inexperience on Road to UFC though when he gassed out spamming take downs.
ETERNAL MMA 104
Eternal MMA 104 will be broadcast on UFC Fight Pass at 02:00 AM ET on Saturday. Eternal's talent pool is certainly getting sniped by HEX Fight League.
KEVIN KOPHAMEL (3-1) vs. JUSTIN VAN HEERDEN (18-9) – Featherweight Championship
Kophamel stepped up on short notice in 2024 against Harry Webb and gave us one of the fights of the year. Harry Webb is a super legit prospect but he has unfortunately been dealing with injuries ever since. Van Heerden has been knocking on UFC's door forever but seems like he has missed his chance as he keeps losing crucial match ups. His best shot was definitely when fellow South African's Cameron Saaiman and Dricus du Plessis were big names in the UFC. But now that he has losses a couple fights he really needed to win (especially the Kieran Joblin fight) I don't think the UFC are keen on him any more. If Kophamel can keep the fight on the feet he should be the better and more dangerous striker. Kophamel also has sneaky experience as he competed in the GAMMA amateur tournament in 2024 after his loss to Webb. I am not super confident in Kophamel as Van Heerden is a tricky vet. I don't think Van Heerden is UFC level anymore but if Kophamel wins he will be a name to look out for in DWCS 2027 no doubt.
Pick: Kevin Kophamel by decision. Low confidence.
