The last two weeks we have had events with early start times, and those make it tough for me to be able to write these articles. This week however, we have an Apex event with UFC Vegas 120 that will start in the evening. This card isn’t terrible, but it probably isn’t setting the world on fire either. Regardless, this is the last event before UFC 330, and that alone makes it a bit exciting.

Headlining the card is Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld, which should be incredibly exciting. Gamrot is a beast of an all-around fighter, but his eagerness to finish has been questioned by many. Salkilld on the other hand, he has been finishing since he arrived for the most part. This should be a fantastic fight..    

If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Vegas 120.

 

THE MAIN EVENT

Quillan Salkilld ($8300 | -132 | 40%) vs. Mateusz Gamrot ($7900 | +112 | 46%)

This fight should deliver. Quillan Salkilld has been finishing in all but one of his official UFC fights, and that is promising. Especially when the other party in this fight has a bit of a reputation for not looking to finish his fights. Mateusz Gamrot, who is Salkilld’s opponent, is a dominate fighter in the UFC however, he just doesn’t always have that killer instinct to finish the fight. 

This fight is going to be a tricky one to predict. Gamrot should be the better all-around fighter, but his lack of urgency can sometimes be annoying. Salkilld on the other hand, is seemingly always looking to finish. HIs actual talent level is questioned by many however, as his strength of schedule has been a bit unimpressive. 

Cash lineups will likely favor the favorite if I had to guess. At just $8300 he probably won’t need a massive amount of points to be optimal, and he is also coming with the safer floor due to Gamrot not being an eager finisher. Could you stack this fight? I imagine you could, but there is a bit of a concern for Gamrot to get clipped early – which has happened to him numerous times. If that happens you get zero points from one side of your stack, which could be hard to swallow. 

Tournament ownership looks to be favoring Gamrot by a decent sized margin, but I have to be honest with you, I am not exactly sure why. He doesn’t look to finish, and has been historically easy to hurt in his fights. That could be a concern here, especially if Salkilld gets multiple chances at it throughout the fight. For single-entry stuff I think you just have to choose who you think wins the fight, as there isn’t much strategic benefit in one direction or the other. For larger tournaments however, especially multiple-entry, going with Salkilld (or over the field in MME) could benefit you if Gamrot comes in with his typical willingness to grind out a decision and gets clipped somewhere in the process – because Salkilld will not let him survive that in my opinion.

 

MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT

Diego Ferreira ($8700 | -180 | 25%) vs. Billy Quarantillo ($7500 | +157 | 34%)

This is an interesting fight finding its way onto around 60% lineups based on the projected ownership. Ferreira is one of those fighters who is certainly dangerous, but his ceiling has just never seemed too high. On the other side, Quarantillo had initially arrived looking like a fighter with a bright future. That train derailed somewhere along the line however, but that doesn’t take away from how exciting Quarantillo fights can be.

To be perfectly honest, I have no idea how this fight is going to play out. Billy Q has been getting finished in his recent losses, and Ferreira is more than capable of finishing someone. The same could be said going in the other direction as well, although I think Diego has more power to get the job done. 

This is a fight I would avoid like the plague for cash games, there just doesn’t seem to be a super clear outcome, and with both guys being dangerous it is a risk I would prefer not to take. Quarantillo does seem like he will be more popular in tournaments, so some of that popularity could trickle into cash games. Couple that with the salary savings and that probably makes Billy Q the choice if you absolutely think this is a must fight for cash entries. 

On the tournament front, Ferreira would be the play in my opinion. His ownership is fairly low for the price point, and I think he is the better fighter. Billy Q’s popularity will likely keep him as the popular play for lower risk tournaments however, so that if you lose, you at least absorb that loss with a good chunk of the field.

 

LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE

$9000+ Range: Manoel Sousa ($9100 | -320 | 28%)

This is somewhat of a weak salary range in terms of finding ways to be different. The two maybe choices are Carol Foro or Manoel Sousa. Sousa got the nod because he is the more dangerous of the two, thus capable of producing a higher score on average in my opinion. To be perfectly clear though, this wouldn’t be the range where I tried to get cute if we are talking about my lineups. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t play Sousa, just that I personally wouldn’t move from someone else in this range that I am confident in for him.

$8000-$8900 Range: Juliana Miller ($8900 | -305 | 22%)

This girl is an enigma. She is an absolute dog in the cage, but the skills can look to be a bit one dimensional. Either way, we are getting a 3:1 favorite here at incredibly low ownership, and if Miller comes in and bullies the way that I expect her to, she could find the sub and make this one of the best plays on the card. The salary range is pretty strong with big scorers though, so make sure you believe in her ability to grind like I do before making this play.

Under $8K Range: Amanda Lemos ($7400 | +295 | 16%)

Again, this range isn’t exactly my favorite to find ways to separate. Most of the popular dogs are that for a reason. I like Lemos here for two reasons though. The first is that she is a wild step up in competition for Thainara, and the second is that she has the hands and power to make something happen if she can manage to stay on her feet. Keep in mind she almost surely doesn’t stay on her feet though. 

 

FINAL THOUGHT

Ramping Up

We are in a bit of valley on paper with the events that we are being given by the UFC. That valley starts swinging upward here in the very near future however, and then rolls into one of the best couple month stretches of the year. All in all I am excited for this card, and you should be too. There are some great matchups on this one.

Lets keep positivity flowing and find our spots on these sketchier cards, and then keep that positivity flowing into the truly exciting cards. Good luck with your entries this week!