The event last week was fantastic, and I fear that maybe we have set the bar too high, to a point where we might not ever achieve it again. This week we will experience the venue fall off of all fall offs by trading the White House lawn for The Apex.
At UFC Vegas 119 we have flyweight action with Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi. That should prove to be a fun and exciting fight, although there are times where Kape can be a bit low volume, so hopefully we don’t trend in that direction. The rest of the card is packed with prospects, debuts, and a couple lady fights.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Vegas 119.
THE MAIN EVENT
Manel Kape ($8600 | -150 | 37%) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi ($7600 | +130 | 43%)
While I don’t particularly love either of these fighters, it should be a fun fight regardless. On one side we have Manel Kape, who has been hovering around the top of the division for a while. He is a pretty dynamic striker, but can sometimes be too reliant on counter striking. His opponent, Kyoji Horiguchi, is a veteran of the sport and fan favorite Japanese fighter. He is also a very impressive striker, but also has a touch of wrestling tucked away for a rainy day.
This fight is lined pretty closely, and I get it, I have no idea who wins this at all. My heart wants to go with Horiguchi just due to a dislike of Kape, but man Kape is good. Really up in the air for me. I also think there is a world where the main event doesn’t even end up optimal if Kape wins, and that adds more wrinkles when it comes to the DFS outlook for this matchup.
Cash contests will be an easy main event stack in my opinion. I doubt a finish happens, but the betting line disagrees with me at just over a coin flip, so we might see a late finish. Kape would likely be looking for a knockout while Horiguchi could be looking to lock in a sub like he did nearly a decade ago when these two first fought.
The ownership is already telling the tournament story, Horiguchi is the more popular fighter. It makes sense, lower salary, more active, and more ways to win. Sticking to Horiguchi in the small field world is likely the move. Kape would be an opportunity if the stars align for a big score in bigger tournaments, but he can turn into a watcher at times. If I was playing multiple entry contests and thought Kape wins, I would probably fade the fight and hope for a slow paced Kape win. I am not doing any of that, but if I was, that plan would be in full effect.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Navajo Stirling ($9200 | -310 | 27%) vs. Ion Cutelaba ($7000 | +260 | 27%)
Normally we have a fight in this spot that will be well over 60% combined ownership, but this week we just don’t seem to have that level of commitment outside of the main event. This fight between Navajo Stirling and Ion Cutelaba is sitting around 54% ownership, and seems like it is positioned to be one of the most important fights on the slate. Cutelaba is projected to be the most popular underdog, and while Stirling isn’t exactly pulling high ownership near the top of the slate, it isn’t abysmal either.
Whoever wins this fight should put up a big score. Cutelaba is very dangerous early in fights, and Stirling has shown that he has the wrestling to put up numbers, and was able to get a finish in his last outing. Unfortunately he has also put up an equal amount of underwhelming performances, so you kind of have to hope that Cutelaba pushes the pace to keep this one in the for sure territory on a big score from the Stirling side. Cutebala is very much kill or be killed in most instances, so I would expect to see a massive score from him if he were to win, but even just a regular win would nearly guarantee optimal at his price point.
For cash I would probably only play Cutelaba myself. He is expected to be a very popular dog, and it would keep some extra salary near the top. That being said, I am also not opposed to just excluding this fight completely from cash, as you really don’t need to chase 100 point scores to win a cash contest.
For tournaments either side works well. In smaller tournaments Cutelaba would come with a bit more safety due to the popularity of him at the $7k price point, but as you get into bigger and bigger tournaments there could be loads of benefit rolling with a bit more exposure than the field to Stirling. My personal feeling is that Stirling rolls to an easy one here with plenty of wrestling along the way as Cutelaba slows down.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Andre Lima ($9700 | -650 | 23%)
Andre Lima is so impressive as a fighter. His salary this week makes it hard to really load up on him, and also makes it that much harder for him to find optimal – but it’s still pretty possible in my opinion. Especially since his opponent, Kevin Borjas, came in heavy this week and seems to have one foot out the door already.
$8000-$8900 Range: Karol Rosa ($8300 | -112 | 21%)
In a female pick’em you can all but guarantee that the girl with the lower salary and more grappling upside is going to be more popular. We have that here with Rosa’s opponent, Luana Santos. I don’t believe this fight plays out like that though, I think Rosa whoops her. Unfortunately it might be the greatest score though, as Rosa is probably going to be looking for a striking battle here, and it could be pretty low volume. Data says that 125lb women score well however, so consider this a roll of the dice in your larger tournaments and a bit of a safe floor in your lower risk single-entry stuff that could help you stay near min cash.
Under $8K Range: Andre Fili ($7300 | +310 | 20%)
The man with the weird nickname is back! Touchy Fili is going to be a tall task for Vinicius Oliveira, who tends to slow down and get sloppy as his fights progress. If Fili can manage to stay safe early, he might just be able to put a pace on Oliveira late that creates problems for him. With how well rounded Fili is, that could potentially lead to a big score in a pretty underwhelming salary grouping.
FINAL THOUGHT
Back To Reality
With the White House card finished up, we go back to what we had before. Since it is so fresh, it stings a bit more. That event, regardless of what you think of the political aspect of it, was the best and most exciting UFC event – probably ever. Seven fights, seven finishes, great name recognition.
This week we don’t really have the name recognition, and probably won’t get seven finishes. There are some killer matchups on this slate though, and there should be a decent opportunity to come up in the DFS or betting world. So while it’s not the excitement of last week, its fights, and we are fight fans, let’s lock in. Good luck this week in your contests.
