It feels fantastic to be back to normal timed contests. The dedication international fans must have to deal with that week after week is amazing. This event heads back to The Apex, and offers us a pretty decent card when compared to many Apex cards so far this year.
For UFC Vegas 118 we have the pleasure of watching the UFC continue to use Belal Muhammad to star build against another prospect that people are excited for, Gabriel Bonfim. The co-main event features Brendan Allen and Edmen Shahbazyan in what is probably going to be a fantastic fight, despite it not being super exciting on paper. The rest of the slate includes numerous prospects, exciting veterans, and fan favorites like the Monkey King Jordan Leavitt.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Vegas 118.
THE MAIN EVENT
Belal Muhammad ($8300 | -108 | 48%) vs. Gabriel Bonfim ($7900 | -112 | 40%)
The UFC really doesn’t like Belal Muhammad much in my opinion. This feels like an attempt to bury him further down into the rankings, while continuing to build up a prospect that hit a bump along the way several fights back. The issue with that concept is that Belal is good, and Bonfim’s bump in the road was just getting outlasted by someone who was tough enough to weather the storm – he might run into that again here.
This fight is currently lined as a pick’em, and the gap has been moving further towards Bonfim as the week progressed. It honestly feels about right in my opinion. This fight will be won based on where the fight takes place I think. If the fight hits the ground early and often, then Belal will win more than likely. If it stays standing, then it pretty much has to go the way of Bonfim. Regardless of the fight positioning however, both of the fighters have the skills to not get finished in those spots. For that reason it’s an easy stack in cash games. It gives us plenty of peace of mind, and both fighters should make it deep enough into the fight to have a decent floor.
When it comes to tournaments Belal makes more sense in my opinion for the low risk contests because of his grappling upside and ability to score highly. Bonfim doesn’t come with as much upside, assuming no finish of course, but he does have the advantage on the stand up and that could be valuable in higher risk contests because of him being the lower owned fighter.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Joanderson Brito ($8600 | -175 | 31%) vs. Jordan Leavitt ($7600 | +150 | 30%)
The projected ownership of this fight was actually surprising to me. I did not expect either of these guys to be pulling 30% – let alone both of them. Leavitt is a fan favorite, or maybe just a meme for some masquerading as a favorite. Brito is a fierce and well rounded fighter, but his success in this one probably going to be based solely on his ability to stay upright where he has a significant advantage.
In theory you could probably get away with playing either of these fighters in your cash contests, they both seem to be popular enough in tournaments to assume that some of that popularity wil transfer over to cash games. That being said I sort of hate this fight for cash. If someone was twisting my arm and forcing me to pick a side it would probably be Leavitt, and that is almost solely based on him having more of an incentive to grapple. The lower salary doesn’t hurt either.
For tournaments you could, and should, play whatever side you believe in. Brito has the striking advantage and a chance to snatch a sub in any momentary mistake Leavitt might make trying to get this fight to the mat. Leavitt has the grappling upside, but Brito is a fairly decent grappler himself, he just doesn’t do such a good job staying upright. There is a world where this fight is terrible as well, especially from a score perspective, and that makes fading the fight a potential option as well. The fight is slightly favored to end inside the distance at -130 however.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Fares Ziam ($9100 | -300 | 21%)
This week is weird looking for ways to be different. It seems like ownership is finding itself exactly where it should be for this event. One fighter in the 9k range that seems to be going underowned is Fares Ziam in my opinion. People like his opponent, Tom Nolan, and that might be what is keeping Ziam low on the ownership list. Ziam is a fierce fighter with a propensity for violence, and is also really well rounded. He is also surely the cleanest striker in the cage for this matchup. As long as he can stay safe while on top here, I think Ziam looks dominant here, and there is enough of a shot at a big score to take the leap.
$8000-$8900 Range: Bryce Mitchell ($8500 | -125 | 28%)
The middle salary range this week is pretty weak for big score potential from lower owned fighters in the range. One of the fighters that does have that potential is Bryce Mitchell. He is a big step up in competition on paper for his opponent, Santiago Luna, and with his grappling level that might be enough to get a big score from Mitchell here. If the fight stays standing it will be a rough one though.
Under $8K Range: Junior Tafa ($7200 | +310 | 13%)
Junior Tafa doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence, I get it. His opponent, Iwo Baraniewski, is dangerous. I also get that. What happens if this fight extends though? If it does, I think there is a ton of potential for Tafa here, and I don’t think he is completely worthless in the early parts of the fight as well. At just 13% ownership, which is about the same as Carnelossi who is utterly worthless as a play in my opinion, there is plenty of potential to capitalize on with Tafa.
FINAL THOUGHT
Freedom is Coming
We are right around the corner from an event that will be either fantastic or terrible, only time will tell, but either way it will go down in the history books when it comes to the evolution of the sport. It probably seems a bit premature to be focused on the next event, rather than the one that is taking place in a few hours, but this slate is pretty straight forward with some obvious spots that should make it a profitable week for low risk players.
