This is our final card before a one week break for Memorial Day weekend. To be perfectly honest, it isn’t the best card they have ever provided, but we are fans and these are fights – so it’s betting than nothing. The one exciting part of this is that the DFS slate looks pretty good with some of the fight swaps that have happened. Probably a great week for cash contests. 

For UFC Vegas 117 we have a pretty good matchup in the main event between Arnold Allen and Melq Costa that should prove to be very exciting. Beneath that on the card we have a few very exciting prospects that will be putting their skills on display for the first time in the UFC, and then a couple that have already fought in the UFC, but are still in the process of figuring out where they fit in their respective divisions.

If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Vegas 117.

 

THE MAIN EVENT

Arnold Allen ($8600 | -122 | 36%) vs. Melquizael Costa ($7600 | +102 | 39%)

This fight is so perplexing, they are both incredibly talented and well rounded. They both are currently on distinctively different career paths however at this moment. Costa is trending upwards, and Allen is falling in the rankings. The difference however in my opinion, is strength of schedule over the course of those fights. Melq is on a six fight win streak, but the highest quality opponent in the mix was an aging Dan Ige. Allen is 1-3 in his last four, with the win coming over Giga Chikadze. All of his losses are against some of the best fighters that the division has to offer.  

This fight is lined at -135 to go the distance right now on BetOnline. Personally I think that is an insane line and there is tons of value on the under. That being said, the math is usually the math for a reason, and that would indicate that this fight can be stacked for cash contests. If you are like me however, and don’t expect this fight to go the distance, then you can really choose which ever side you prefer. They both seem to be coming in with similar popularity based on projected tournament ownership, so there is no real benefit to either fighter aside from you feeling like they will win. I personally would likely choose the Melq side and couple that with the Bukauskas free square for salary saving purposes. 

When it comes to the tournaments this week you are wide open in single entry contests, just like cash – pick your side. Multiple entry contests will require you to have plenty of both fighters to be competitive more likely than not. 

 

MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT

Ivan Erslan ($8800 | -163 | 26%) vs. Tuco Tokkos ($7400 | +143 | 27%)

We don’t have too many fights this week commanding over 50% projected tournament ownership, it really does seem that there will be extreme deviation across lineups this week – but this fight between Ivan Erslan and Tuco Tokkos is looking to pull the most beyond the main event. The fight is fun in my opinion, but the odds are a bit strange considering the run Erslan has had compared to the way he was billed entering the UFC. On the flip side I would argue that Tokkos has overdelivered since arriving in the UFC as a last minute replacement can to be crushed.

For cash games you probably will want to use Tokkos over Erslan, assuming you want to use either of them. Tokkos is looking to be slightly more popular on the tournament projections, and one of the most popular dogs on the slate. This is likely do to his takedown upside, and that he has proven to be fairly durable in the UFC to this point. 

For tournaments you could play either side. Erslan has the knockout upside, Tokkos has the wrestling and submission upside. It really just comes down to which one of these guys you personally believe will get it done considering they are expected to be at similar ownership. There is potential in multiple entries by coming out ahead by going over on Erslan if you think Erslan can starch him – but my expectations would be for more people to believe in the wrestling of Tokkos.

 

LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE

$9000+ Range: Nicole Caliari ($9000 | -279 | 19%)

What a change from last week in the 9k range. Last week this was the range where all the things were happening pre-event. This week we have three fighters to choose from and there is only one that is providing an opportunity for them to be significantly underowned. Personally I don’t think I buy the bully and sub narrative, I think there is a good chance for a slow paced side kicking affair from Bannon to keep herself off the ground. But there isn’t much happening up here at this price point that would be different, so here is Nicole. The odds are at least attractive for the play.

$8000-$8900 Range: Andre Petroski ($8900 | -143 | 23%)

Petroski is a tough guy to really believe in, but he is fighting Cody Brundage who brings that same lack of consistency to the table. This fight could really go either way, but I think I trust Andre to not quit in a moment of danger more than I do Cody. If Petroski wasn’t such a good wrestling and grappler, my opinion would be more in the middle, but that takes away half of what makes Cody good in the first round of the fight. I am expecting a finish here though, so why not take a shot on one of the lower owned fighters with a good chance for finish in the range.  

Under $8K Range: Cody Brundage ($7600 | +123 | 18%)

This is again a rough salary range to find different plays with legitimate upside. Cody does happen to be projected to be one of the more popular dogs, so no clue how different you would actually be here – but he has the upside of going hard in the first few minutes and that could be enough to get a nice jump on the competition.

 

FINAL THOUGHT

Summer is Here

Summer is officially following this event. The next time we will have an event after this one will be post Memorial Day. One of the best runs of fights every year is through the summer and international fight week. This summer should be no different. Let’s have a day and enjoy the fights we have for now, and look forward to the fights coming in the future. Good luck in your DFS contests this week!