One of the things that have been somewhat of a let down this year, is that the Apex still feels like the Apex when watching at home. The extra seats in the venue didn’t really move the needle for the home viewing experience. I hope that the fighters feel the difference and enjoy it more at least.
This week we are in that Apex, and have Aljamain Sterling fighting Youssef Zalal. As we move down the card, we get a few exciting matchups that I am looking forward to, and there are what should be some amazing DFS spots. We also have a few prospects on the card, so there should be excitement there as well.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC Vegas 116.
THE MAIN EVENT
Youssef Zalal ($8400 | -135 | 37%) vs. Aljamain Sterling ($7800 | +115 | 39%)
This fight is too good of a main event for an Apex card in my opinion. Youssef is a friend of Jacob’s, and therefore a friend of We Want Picks. Aljamain Sterling is one of the more interactive fighters on social media, so it's pretty hard to dislike him as well – unless of course you are still holding on to that villain arc right after the knee to the head from Yan.
Standing this fight should be Youssef Zalal all the way, and that could mean a stick and move type performance from him, which might not raise to the level of a great score unless the activity is out of this world for five rounds. When it comes to the wrestling and grappling, this is where this fight gets somewhat interesting. Sterling should have the wrestling advantage, but it’s close, and the jiu-jitsu advantage is up in the air. For cash games I would play both of these guys, just to make sure that I have the winner in my lineup. The fight is favored to go the distance as well, so the floor here should be fairly solid for the loser, but if we get the movement based fight that we have seen before from Youssef, then both scores could be abysmal, so be aware.
With a fight that is lined this closely, and one that the public seems so split on as well, picking your fighter in a tournament really just comes down to personal preference. My personal feeling is that Youssef wins this fight, but I don’t think he finishes Sterling, and most likely does everything he can to keep it standing and win on points. Not because he can’t compete with Aljamain on the ground, but rather because Aljamain can’t compete with him on the feet, and Youssef tends to be a very high IQ fighter.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Norma Dumont ($8800 | -190 | 12%) vs. Joselyne Edwards ($7400 | +165 | 15%)
This is something different this week, instead of highlighting one of the most owned fights, we have one of the least owned in this spot. There are two reasons for that. The first is that there is no other fight beyond the main event that is commanding high enough ownership on both sides of the fight to push it above the rest of the highly owned fights on the slate. The second is that women’s fights at 125 pounds tend to be sneaky good scoring fights most of the time. That may not end up being the case here with Norma involved, and as the favorite, but it is at least worth considering.
When it comes to cash games, I would consider both of these fighters to be a punt. The reality is that you could pick either of them and probably get a decent floor of 35-40 points or so from the loser, but the problem is that their popularity might be so low that you would be absorbing that low score all by your lonesome in a field that you need to stay on pace with the top half of in 50/50’s, and top 45% in a double up. Then the upside isn’t great on the Norma Dumont side either, and the Joselyne upside is largely dependent on her ability to get takedowns.
For tournaments, I don’t see much upside on the Dumont side personally, and wouldn’t play her. There is upside on the Joselyne side, but it’s risky, and who knows if she can actually get those takedowns. When it comes to single-entry, I would suggest looking elsewhere unless the field is massive and you want to roll the dice. For multiple-entry I would suggest playing a bit over on Joselyn, maybe fading Norma completely and then rolling that ownership, or at least a chunk of it, into Joselyn Edwards.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Rodolfo Vieira ($9100 | -305 | 27%)
I could be a lunatic this week, as both my 9k, and my 8k fighter, in the leverage section seem like the most obvious pick on the slate to me – but both are trailing in ownership in respect to the fighters around their price point. For the 9k range, I really like Rodolfo Vieira. He is fighting Eric McConico, who is basically a journeyman in my opinion, riding the UFC favor of filling a need for them a few fights back. McConico’s only win was a highly questionable decision against Cody Brundage, and beyond that, has been finished in his other two UFC fights. Rodolfo Vieira is a dangerous man early in his fights, and that danger increases when he can pick you up and throw you down, which I expect to be the case here. This could be the quickest finish in the 9k range and it comes at both a salary and ownership discount if it does go that way.
$8000-$8900 Range: Montel Jackson ($8600 | -185 | 25%)
This one makes a bit more sense to me than the Vieira fight, as Jackson’s opponent – Raoni Barcelos – has at least proven to be very durable for the most part and capable of staying on his feet and winning a fight against good competition. Barcelos will be at a big size and power disadvantage here however, so even if the wrestling of Jackson never materializes, I think the chances of a knockout on the aging Barcelos is higher than it would typically be. We probably will need that knockout for this to pay off score wise, as Barcelos has amazing takedown defense, but given the fighting style of Jackson and his price point, I really like him in this range.
Under $8K Range: Max Griffin ($7600 | +110 | 16%)
Max Griffin is notoriously unreliable as far as I am concerned. Sometimes he looks like a world beater, and other times he looks like a bum. The facts remain however, he is a coin-flip to win here on the betting odds, is not exactly the easiest fight one could draw in their UFC debut, and he has the capability to score well in his wins. With ownership this low, I have to believe that there is some opportunity here if the planets align.
FINAL THOUGHT
Getting Close To The Summer Run
Things have been a bit up and down on paper for the UFC events to this point in 2026. Couple that with the annoying little quirks of the Paramount broadcast versus the ESPN broadcast, and it’s been a bit of a rocky road for UFC fans so far this year.
Thankfully we are right around the corner from what usually amounts to the best run of fights for the year over the summer months with the White House card, International Fight week, and a few other high profile events. Stay the course WWP members, things are about to get really exciting. Do what you must to find joy in this events, dial in on the fights that actually excite you, make the money you can from the fights you have a good read on, and good luck in your DFS contests this week!
