UFC 330 is upon us, and the card is pretty solid. Could it be a little better? Sure, they all could with the exception of a few – but this one is giving us the pound for pound best fighter on planet earth, a very hot prospect, and numerous exciting matchups down the card that should produce.
At the top we have Islam Makhachev, the pound for pound champ, matching up with top ranked challenger Ian Machado Garry. Many are trying to bill this as Khabib vs. Conor 2, but in my humble opinion both of these guys are better than the previous version and it doesn’t have the level of vitriol that the Khabib vs Conor matchup did. In the co-main spot we have Mackenzie Dern fighting Gillian Robertson for the women’s strawweight belt. Further down the card we have good matchmaking that should produce exciting fights, even if some of those names are a bit lacking in star power at this point in their careers.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC 330.
THE MAIN EVENT
Islam Makhachev ($9200 | -362 | 35%) vs. Ian Machado Garry ($7000 | +290 | 23%)
We had a nice read on the main event last week, but that was in a fight that I had zero bias in whatsoever. Didn’t really like either of the guys fighting in the main last week. This week, my current favorite fighter is fighting, and I also happen to despise his opponent, so the bias is strong this week towards Islam.
Bias aside, Islam has all of the upside in this matchup for DFS purposes in my opinion. Garry has never seen the type of wrestling he will be dealing with tonight. Ian Garry claims to have gone to Georgia to improve his wrestling and feel what good wrestling feels like. The only problem with that plan, Georgian wrestling is not Dagestani wrestling. I don’t expect him to be remotely prepared. Even on the feet, while Ian is likely the better all around striker, Islam is much better than people give him credit for, and Garry has been hurt in fights before. The only way I could see Ian Machado Garry winning this fight would make everyone watching it a loser.
Cash contests should be a stack this week in my opinion. Garry is only $7000 and stands to put up as many rounds of scoring as he can avoid getting submitted in my opinion. The stack would also give you a bit of insurance against a fluke Ian knockout win – I will hate him until the end of time.
When it comes to the tournament side of things, load up on Islam. He is every bit of upside in this fight. If you believe in Ian Machado Garry you may be better off fading this fight in tournaments because the knockout chances are low in my opinion. The more likely Garry win would be him moving and dancing for 5 rounds throwing pot shots to keep Islam at range. Ultimately I would imagine Islam Makhachev would figure that out though, and then its just a matter of time before a submission is found in my opinion.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Jalin Turner ($8600 | -113 | 33%) vs. Kaue Fernandes ($7600 | -107 | 34%)
This fight being a pick’em shouldn’t surprise anyone. Both of these guys are exciting and are looking to stand and go to war. Jalin Turner is someone who I once thought would make a run due to his skill set and physical traits in the weight class. Kaue is a similarly skilled fighter, probably better on the ground if you forced me to choose, and has been building momentum as of late.
My personal lean on this fight is towards Jalin Turner, but that being said, Kaue is the play if you build by the numbers. Being a pick’em and saving $1000 in salary has never hurt when it comes to DFS. Everyone is seemingly applying that logic here making Kaue Fernandes projected to be the second highest owned underdog – right below Charles Johnson who was thrown into the top spot due to circumstance.
For cash games the play would be to take the savings and betting odds probability ratio that comes along with Kaue Fernandes in my opinion. He will be popular there as well, but it just makes sense to load up on dogs who have a legitimate shot to win based on the betting lines. Kaue and Charles Johnson in your cash lineups might even allow you to avoid the stack in the main event and get pretty creative near the top of the slate.
On the tournament front, either fighter, or even neither fighter works. I personally believe Turner is going to win this fight, but I am not fully convinced that we see an early enough finish here to matter, and Turner has only been active enough to score big in one decision. Kaue is a fine tournament play if you are on that side, and with his salary has a better chance at seeing optimal results in a win.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9500 | -650 | 21%)
I have no idea why Abdul-Malik is going so low owned compared to the rest in his salary range, but here we are. His opponent, Dustin Stoltzfus, has miserable takedown defense and a history of being finished in a fair amount of his fights. That’s a recipe in my opinion for a big score in a bounce back win from Abdul-Malik.
$8000-$8900 Range: Donte Johnson ($8800 | -295 | 28%)
Not my favorite salary range to attempt to get different. If I was forced to pick a fighter in this range though, it would be Donte Johnson. Oddly enough, I am about to use the same logic for him and then refute that logic in the next section. Hypocrisy at work. Donte Johnson is the more athletic of the two fighters, has more power, and in my opinion has a stronger willingness to engage – at least early. Truthfully I should have just written up Lucas Fernando at $9100 here and said find the extra couple hundred bucks.
Under $8K Range: Vicente Luque ($7800 | -110 | 23%)
I know people are riding high on Tresean Gore, but I personally feel like that is a ton of recency bias. Yes, Luque is probably on the downswing of his career, and he has been in wars. Yes Tresean Gore is the more athletic and explosive fighter at this point – but let’s not forget that Tresean Gore is kind of a bum, and Luque spent most of his career fighting near the top of the division. This is a solid test for Gore, and not one that I believe he passes.
FINAL THOUGHT
Islam Makhachev Fight Day
Islam events are always my favorite UFC events, I love watching him fight. Bit of fanboy for sure, but he is impressive. I would love to see him go to middle weight and see what happens there at some point as well. I think it gives us two benefits, first we could potentially see our first three division champ, but also it clears the way for a stacked welterweight division with numerous young killers to be great for years to come.
The boys have been absolutely killing it lately, the DFS content has been crushing it as well. The vibe from you all has been extremely positive, life is fucking good. Good luck with your entries this week and enjoy the event!
