UFC 329 is upon us, and having Conor McGregor in the main event is something I didn’t think would happen again. It is happening though, and it seems to have people excited about watching. Personally I can’t stand Conor. I will always hold a grudge against him for the night he flatlined Jose Aldo.
We have much more happening on this card than just Conor vs. Max Holloway though. We have a great co-main event with Benoit Saint Denis and Paddy Pimblett fighting to move up the rankings. There are also numerous exciting and established prospects trying to continue to build their names on this slate, and a debut from Gable Steveson that has many fans really excited as well. This slate should be an exciting watch from start to finish.
If you haven’t read this article before, we will be taking a look at the main event, one of the most owned fights on the slate, and then try to identify some of the most valuable at each price point that just aren’t pulling a ton of ownership relative to the fighters around them. Sometimes we find gold, sometimes we completely miss, but we always have fun regardless. Let’s take a look at UFC 329.
THE MAIN EVENT
Max Holloway ($9000 | -255 | 55%) vs. Conor McGregor ($7200 | +215 | 29%)
This is a rematch from a fight many moons ago that did not go well for Max – but that was 2013. Here we are more than a decade later, and it is happening again. Both of these fighters know how to be exciting, so this should be a really fun fight for as long as it lasts. How long does it last? That is a great question. The betting odds of -500 for the fight to end inside the distance, but it is even money on the under 2.5 rounds.
I imagine Conor is still pretty dangerous early, despite not having fought in a long time. That danger will fade some as the fight goes on however. Holloway’s dangerousness grows as the fight goes on, he is more of a volume guy and with his cardio he may make things tough for Conor in the later rounds. Personally I have to believe the layoff and lifestyle are too much for Conor to overcome in his fight back against an opponent of this tier.
When it comes to building your cash contest lineups you are going to have to make a decision on whether or not stacking is valid or not. Personally I am torn. I could see the merit in it if you think Conor has a chance in this fight. I do not however believe that, so for me personally it will be Max, and Max only in cash games.
If you are choosing to roll with one fighter over the other in your cash games, you could hedge yourself a bit by putting the other fighter in your small-field tournament entries. Max is a scoring monster in his wins historically, so if he wins, you will almost surely need him. Do with that information what you will. The only way I see Conor winning this fight is by early knockout, so he should definitely not be ignored in the multiple-entry tournaments, but his upside is limited in my opinion. If you believe he may wrestle, then maybe it’s worth having more of him, but I think that idea might be a stretch.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Benoit Saint Denis ($8500 | -138 | 44%) vs. Paddy Pimblett ($7700 | +118 | 34%)
There were two fights fighting for the most ownership behind the main event this week. The one that ended up being projected to be the most owned was this one, but by just a small margin over Terrance McKinney and King Green. Both fights should probably be heavily targeted. Let’s take a deeper look into this one.
This fight is a grappler’s delight. BSD has been in fights where he has looked amazing, and he has been in fights where he looked incredibly out of place at the top of the division. Knowing which version you will get is going to be important. My personal lean on this fight is on the Paddy side, just due to youth, toughness, and the fact that he has less miles on him.
In cash games you could really run either of these fighters if you have a good idea on who wins the closest fight on the slate. Paddy would be a good dog to throw in there to save some salary, but there would be some incredible wrestling upside with BSD if this fight goes his way as well. For me, I prefer to avoid using such close fights in my cash entries and will look to fill out my roster elsewhere. Planting a flag on this one just seems like a risk best reserved for tournaments.
When it comes to tournaments, I think the only play worth truly exploring is Saint Denis. Paddy is my pick to win the fight, so I don’t even think BSD wins – but he is the only one in this fight with a chance to produce a truly massive score in my opinion. Fading Paddy entirely might be silly, but I definitely think you could go under on him in tournaments and use that exposure elsewhere on fighters capable of bigger scores. If the staph infection rumors are true, then maybe that giving credibility to that thought comes back to bite you in the ass, but in the best of scenarios Paddy struggles to get to 100 points in his wins.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Farid Basharat ($9600 | -650 | 17%)
The 9k range is loaded for fighters with low ownership. Basically everyone not named Max Holloway or Gable Steveson is projected to have abysmal ownership on this slate in this range. Farid Basharat sticks out as someone with a good chance to put up an abnormally high score. He is lined as a -650 favorite, which is huge, but his opponent is also a short notice debut as a replacement fighter. That means we could see Farid Basharat put up a great performance to a big score with little ownership.
$8000-$8900 Range: Ryan Gandra ($8600 | -130 | 22%)
This fight comes with a ton of unknowns. The only UFC fight we have to base an opinion on Gandra from is a fight against Jose Medina – not the most credible of opponents. Zach Reese doesn’t really have any wins over truly impressive opponents either however. The betting line and projected ownership has Reese as one of the livest dogs on the slate, but I just can’t shake the feeling that he gets flatlined by Gandra early. At just 22% ownership, a first round finish would do wonders for carrying your lineup to glory if he gets it done.
Under $8K Range: Mario Bautista ($7900 | +125 | 19%)
I wanted to put Cody Garbrandt here, but his pre-fight photos just didn’t impress me. He looks washed and like life isn’t being great to him. Instead, Bautista it is. Personally I am on the Cory Sandhagen side of this fight (who I also think is going underowned), but Bautista would likely need plenty of wrestling and control time in this one to come away with the win. That makes his upside slightly better than Cory’s, and gives us a fighter with more potential in this range than just the thought of getting a knockout like it would be with Cody Garbrandt.
FINAL THOUGHT
The Mac is Back?
Conor coming back is the story obviously. If nothing else, this event proves he still has the star power I guess. I didn’t think he would, but that was just based on my personal disdain for him and how long he has been removed from the picture. Not the case though, people love him. This event is getting more buzz than the White House card it seems, hopefully it delivers.
The entire card is loaded with matchups that should produce exciting fights, so even if Conor looks like a guy several years removed from the sport, we should end up with numerous finishes and a night that doesn’t feel wasted spending it watching UFC. Hopefully we can be on the right side of a few of those. Good luck in your DFS contests this week and enjoy the fights!
