Despite the name quality on the last card, it certainly delivered. This week for UFC 327 we have a moderately exciting card on paper, with several fantastic matchups. Most of the betting lines agree, with only two sizeable favorites on the whole card, and not a single fighter breaking -300. For DFS that could mean chaos however, as there are only two fighters over 9k salary, and zero fighters under 7k.
The main event is set for Jiri Prochazka and Carlos Ulberg to fight it out for the interim light heavyweight title. Jiri is a fighter that we have seen quite a bit of, and it's never boring watching a Jiri fight. We did lose the co-main event, which got pushed out a month or so, but we still have other exciting fights to look forward to all the way down the card. One that many will be watching especially closely is Curtis Blaydes versus Josh Hokit.
THE MAIN EVENT
Jiri Prochazka ($8200 | -113 | 45%) vs. Carlos Ulberg ($8000 | -107 | 41%)
This main event is going to be a great watch in my opinion. We have Jiri Prochazka, who is never in a boring fight, going against Carlos Ulberg who tends to be entertaining as well. Jiri probably has the more well rounded skill set, despite much of it being unorthodox, but Carlos is a fantastic kickboxer with power and solid striking defense.
When it comes to playing cash you are going to have to pick your side here unfortunately. You could also in theory just choose to leave this fight alone for cash if you prefer. There will be a big score here most likely, as the winner almost surely wins inside the distance, but with the salaries the way they are you could probably find a similar score around this price point elsewhere. The coin flip issues persist across most of this card however.
Jiri looks to be projected at slightly higher ownership between the two of them, so that makes him the safer choice for your single entry contests, but it’s not by a large amount. If you are a believer in either of these fighters, that is the one you should roster. Just like cash above, the score here could probably be replicated elsewhere should you want to avoid this fight altogether, but it's generally pretty tough going into the main event with no equity in a tournament.
For multiple entry contests this fight should be your most owned for sure. The projections are saying it will be 85%-90% owned, and even that probably isn’t enough. Again, the winner of this fight will score points to a high degree. Jiri does have the higher ceiling because he has a bit of grappling in his game, but he has also been knocked out in his losses.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Curtis Blaydes ($8400 | -125 | 31%) vs. Josh Hokit ($7800 | +105 | 30%)
If you watch MMA and aren’t excited for this fight, then something is wrong with you. All of the theatrics leading up to this fight on the Hokit side have created a massive level of interest across social media. Couple that with it being a heavyweight fight where both fighters have a great finish rate, and you have the recipe for one of the most interesting situations of the evening.
For cash games I wouldn’t bother with this fight. The loser likely scores next to nothing, and the winner could easily be either man in my opinion. If I was under the gun to pick one, I suppose it would have to be Hokit for cash just because I believe Blaydes winning by decision is in the realm of possibility, so Hokit has the safer floor. Truly though, picking a winner here for a cash entry is risky business in my opinion, and this slate is loaded with options.
Along the same lines as the cash game entry, Hokit seems like the safer play here for small-field single-entry contests. He just comes with a safer floor, and I believe a higher ceiling as well. Blaydes has mostly abandoned the wrestling that made him a killer, Hokit embraces his. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Blaydes be the better technical boxer, but I doubt this fight remains technical and clean. With near even ownership the ball is really in your court – but saving some salary is nice to fit the other 405 fighters in the mid 8k range.
Play this fight for your multiple entry contests, and play a ton of it. With just over 60% projected ownership on this fight, I think some people may be sleeping on the pace Hokit is likely to push here. Multiple entry really isn’t my thing, but if it was, I would probably choose to allocate more ownership into this fight than just 60% – and I would tend to favor Hokit by a slight margin.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Kelvin Gastelum ($9000 | -255 | 9%)
There are only two fighters in the 9k range this week, so really I probably should have adjusted this to include the upper 8k range as well so things remain balanced. Gastelum is projected to be one of the least owned fighters on this slate at just 9%, which is ridiculously low for one of the biggest favorites on the slate. Gastelum and his opponent are both a bit seasoned at this point, and the reliability of both is kind of shaky, so ultimately I get the low ownership. I don’t think I would personally play Gastelum at all because his win could very easily be a three round decision – which won’t get it done on this slate, at this price, in my opinion – but there is something to be said for ownership this low on the favorite in a fight with coin flip odds to end inside the distance.
$8000-$8900 Range: Randy Brown ($8400 | -110 | 18%)
With a twelve fight slate and congested pricing, finding low owned fighters with upside in the heart of that congestion can be pretty difficult. Brown has been pretty hit or miss over his career, some performances going over the 100 point mark, but many falling below it. The pick ‘em betting odds suggest Holland being the better DraftKings play at a lower salary, and the projected ownership is telling that same story. Personally, I think Holland is not nearly the fighter that many others seem to think he is, and I think he is only fighting for his show money more often than not. This fight should favor brown in my opinion, certainly to the point of going under on Holland at the very least, and I could see him sneaking well over 10x as a surprise on this card. A stinker in one of the more owned fights and this becomes the play of the slate – or you set your money on fire, either way it’s an adventure.
Under $8K Range: Esteban Ribovics ($7600 | +175 | 14%)
I totally understand why Robovics isn’t carrying high ownership here. Gamrot is a wrestle heavy DFS warrior that has come through for us time and time again. He does manage to get into some trouble in many of his fights though, often being hurt early and having to weather the storm with grappling to recover. Ribovics is definitely capable of finding that early shot to create that issue for Gamrot, and if he can manage not to be immediately wrestled following hurting Gamrot, we might see a massive score from Ribovics here at miniscule ownership. Not worth fading Gamrot because of the type of ceiling he is capable of producing, but rolling extra ownership into Ribovics makes a ton of sense to me – our simulator agrees as well, projecting him at a much higher scoring potential than others at his price point.
FINAL THOUGHT
Tough Card For Sure!
This card is loaded with coin flip type fights. That means low risk contests are going to be wild with scoring all over the place, and you need to be on the right side of those scores. The high risk contests are going to be about targeting the right fights, but do offer some reprieve in the sense that you don’t need to be right on the winners as heavily because of having coverage in both directions. Either way it should be an eventful evening for the DFS players out there. Good luck this week in your contests!
