Back to back numbered events are an interesting vibe and I am very happy to see it transpire. UFC 325 is taking place in Sydney, Australia in the Qudos Bank Arena. The card is very top heavy with four fights from Road To UFC on the prelims, and that should make the DFS slate pretty interesting as it is really difficult to predict what will happen in those fights.
Our main event is Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes 2 for the Featherweight belt. The rest of the main card looks to contain violence with aggressive vet matchups like Benoit Saint-Denis versus Dan Hooker. The prelims contain the R2UFC fights, and while I expect many of those to be great fights, it does present some uncertainty for DFS purposes. Let’s take a look at the snapshot!
THE MAIN EVENT
Alexander Volkanovski ($8500 | -150 | 50%) vs. Diego Lopes ($7700 | +130 | 37%)
Last week we nailed the call on rolling with Gaethje for tournaments, and the suggested stack in cash likely saved some folks who were considering leaving Gaethje off their entries on the advice of the Youtube capper community. Let’s dial in on this main event, and hopefully we can do it again.
This is a matchup we have seen already, so we have a bit more to go off of in this one than we did last week. In theory this should be as straightforward as last time. Unfortunately, with Volk’s advanced age we are at the mercy of father time. There is a world where this is the fight where Volk’s age, and the lingering effects from his wars start to prevent him from competing with the young rising talent, and it's so hard to account for when exactly we start heading down that path.
We will start with cash because it’s an easy stack this week. On one side you have Volkanovski, who is the betting favorite, won the last matchup, and puts up big points in all of his DFS wins since 2019. On the other side you have Diego Lopes, who is a bit more hit or miss with his DFS score, but has the youth advantage here, and is coming off a massive 130 point performance against Jean Silva. Stack them up for cash, really no reason not to unless you think Volk gets a quick win here.
When it comes to low-risk tournaments, things aren’t as clear cut. You could go in both directions here, and if you are playing several different tournaments, you would probably be best suited to have both of them. If you absolutely need to trim down to one or the other, I would base it on where I am finding my leverage and the size of the tournament I am entering. The smaller the field, the more I would lean towards Volk so I have the cushion of moving with most of the field on that fight.
Multiple-entry will require you to include both of these gentlemen in your lineups, and I would definitely assume that whoever wins this fight will end up optimal – unless the R2UFC fighters shake things up seriously. If a suggestion must be made it would be to carry about 90%-95% ownership to this fight, and go a bit under on Volk, and a bit over on Diego.
MOST IMPORTANT FIGHT
Jacob Malkoun ($8600 | -140 | 32%) vs. Torrez Finney ($7600 | +120 | 29%)
Beyond the main event, this fight is the next most owned fight on the slate. That means that it will have a serious implication in your results on this slate. Last week the winner of the fight written up here was optimal, and I would expect this to be the case again. Just like last week, the salary range of mid-8000’s isn’t super attractive, but we do have more options this week, with Jacob Malkoun pulling the second most ownership in the range – beyond Volkanovski.
For cash game players, you should probably play Torrez Finney. He is the most popular dog on the card, and we know what he is going to do, like clockwork. He could definitely come in and be a bit boring with it, and score less than we hope, but if there is one thing I trust on this slate, it’s that Torrez Finney is going to try to wrestle and probably be pretty tough to finish. Take the reliability and safer floor in your cash games for sure.
This fight is less attractive for tournaments in my opinion, but only because you have to be right on a fight that could legitimately go either way. I think Finney is still the better side for low-risk and small-field stuff, but the bigger the field is, the more taking a shot on Malkoun becomes attractive. Jacob Malkoun has been getting slayed by Angelo and other touts this week, but the truth is that he is really solid, his only real losses coming against Brendan Allen (top of the division) and a quick knockout by Phil Hawes (could happen to anyone). We don’t count the Brundage loss because he was beating Cody’s ass before the DQ.
When you look under a multiple-entry lens, getting Malkoun into your lineups becomes a bit more interesting, but even then I wouldn’t feel great going higher than around 40% for each fighter in this contest. The Torrez Finney lay and pray is still very live in this fight, and while Torrez by wet blanket will get it done in low-risk contests, it wouldn’t do much for you in a big tournament.
LOOKING FOR LEVERAGE
$9000+ Range: Cam Rowston ($9300 | -360 | 26%)
Cam Rowston becomes the best play at the top of the slate if Quillan Salkilld going longer than 60 seconds and Benoit Saint-Denis doesn’t get his grappling going against Dan Hooker. Assuming Cam wins his fight of course. He is fighting Cody Brundage, and just like most Cody fights, the first 2 minutes or so can get pretty dicey. Rowston was taken down 11 times by Torrez Finney in their DWCS contest, so Brundage can likely get him to the ground if he so chooses. If he doesn’t finish him early though, Rowston becomes smooth sailing after that 2 minute mark for a knockout in either the late first or early second round. Worth noting, considering Sulangrangbo for leverage in this range is also really attractive in the larger tournaments.
$8000-$8900 Range: Billy Elekana ($8900 | -270 | 19%)
The ownership spread in the 8k range looks like it is going mostly to Volkanovski and Malkoun. Your three options in this range with sub 30% ownership are Elekana, Ruffy, and Micallef. Of that group the only one I personally don’t love is Ruffy. I know everyone loves him, and they want to see the fighting nerds back on top, but man, Fiziev is such a jump in the striking competition from anyone he has faced. Micallef is decent, but I have concerns that Oban Elliot might be too much without the concern of being taken down. With Billy Elekana you are getting the most favored fighter in the range, with the second lowest ownership in the range, and fighting a guy we know to not be very good and is very capable of being finished.
Under $8K Range: Lawrence Lui ($7200 | +250 | 13%)
This entire range is basically between 15-20% ownership. A couple are coming in slightly under the 15%, but not by much. Of the list of fighters available to us I wanted to highlight one that might be slipping through the cracks. This is a dart throw down a dark hallway for sure, so tread carefully, but Lui does have the grappling advantage in this fight and some serious durability. If it somehow finds the ground, you might be in line for a big score. If you pivot from BSD at the top, then I also see a ton of merit in Dan Hooker from this range.
FINAL THOUGHT
This event will be great!
When I first looked at this card, I was a bit put off by the amount of Road To UFC fights on it, but as the week has gone on – and we lost one of those fights – I am getting more and more excited for the card. The fights on the main card are fantastic, and the known fighters on the prelims are also matched up really well to give us plenty to look forward to. Good luck to you all in your contests and bets!
