This week the UFC is back to the Apex for UFC Fight Night 111, headlined by Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown. We have had some fights fall out, Zachary Reese steps in on short notice, Bonfim’s brother missed weight by 5 pounds which has caused betting lines to nosedive on him as a the favorite, so all in all it has been an interesting last few days for this card.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Vegas 111 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Josh Hokit | $9400 | -340 | 40%
Big time wrestler, who had a very good performance on DWCS getting his win and went on to pretend he is like a mix between Macho Man and Sean Strickland, but who really gives a shit as long as he can get us big DK scores against a mediocre heavyweight division. He is 15 years younger, faster, stronger, and the better wrestler. Hokit should smother Gimenis here.
Zach Reese | $9100 | -300 | 39%
Coming in off the NC after the nut shot on Dumas, Reese steps in on short notice against McVey who’s opponent pulled out. The fight is almost -1000 to finish ITD, and Reese is -300, so you would expect him to come in and handle business and put up a big boy score here.
Joseph Morales | $9300 | -270 | 31%
Submission specialist going up against Schnell who has a paltry 43% takedown defense and will need to keep the fight on the feet. I would prefer the other two spend ups, but that is also why Morales is projecting almost 10% lower ownership.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Marco Tulio | $8700 | -190 | 28%
He has 2 UFC fights, 2 wins, and 2 DK scores over 100 points. He is 8700, fighting someone who does not wrestle/grapple, so give me the guy who averages over 7.5 significant strikes per minute to go along with a 61% SS defense rate. He will be giving up 5 inches in reach, but Tulio has some nasty power.
Ricky Simon| $8400 | -160 | 32%
This is a pretty even matchup, but talent wise Simon is better than Barcelos both on the feet and in the wrestling department. Ricky averages over 5 takedowns per fight, 3 significant strikes per minute and is coming off b2b wins. When he wins, he normally scores over 110 points.
Hyder Amil | $8200 | -150 | 35%
Ran into the beast that is Delgado last time out, Amil has awesome output on the feet averaging almost 7 significant strokes per minute and will mix in some wrestling if need be. Emmers should come out the gate hot, but if Amil can fight smart and not let Jamall get the early finish, he should take over.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Miles Johns | $7900 | +145 | 14%
This is a pretty even fight, but Johns has faced arguably tougher competition and has slightly better significant strike defense and both sport solid take down defense. In a fight that is this close with analytics, the underdog helps fit a higher priced fighter in.
Randy Brown | $7700 | +150 | 37%
Solid takedown defense at 73%, has a 6 inch reach advantage and a 2 inch height advantage so he will need to maintain range and not let Bonfim chain wrestle. If he can keep the takedowns at bay and have Gabriel burn through his gas tank, Brown and find a finish in the later rounds.
Muslim Salikhov | $7400 | +150 | 29%
Medic is a little chinny, and Muslim has won 2 fights in a row via first round knockout. He is older by 9 years, but Medic will have to survive the big shots in round 1, and when it’s such a coin flip I would rather take the dog who has real KO power against the favorite who has shown time and time again that he can be clipped and finished.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti | $9200 | -250 | 11%
This fight is the most likely to go the distance, and she does not offer wrestling upside. It is hard to justify paying 9200 for someone who won’t knock out her opponent and does not offer the DK points of wrestling+control time.
Ismael Bonfim | $9000 | -200 | 16%
Missed weight by 5 pounds, looked like shit, and Padilla is a tough cookie already. I think Padilla beats him, so I do not want to spend 9000 DK salary on someone who looked bad and I think was already going to have a very tough fight before the weight issues.
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