This week the UFC is back to the Apex for UFC Fight Night 110, headlined by Steve Garcia and David Onama in a card that lacks the big names that casual fans would recognize, but has some pretty fun fighters to watch throw down. We have 13 fights still as for a change we had nobody drop out and even more surprisingly everyone actually made weight.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC 321 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Donte Johnson | $9200 | -350 | 42%
Fought at heavyweight on the Contender series and pieced up the bigger guy he was matched up against. Gets Dumas coming off his nut shot NC and I think we see Donte send Dumas into the shadow realm quickly in this one and the UFC cut Sedriques after. He is giving up the height and reach to Dumas, but I expect him to crash into range and end the night quickly here.Dumas has lost his last 2 fights via getting KO’d, and this feels like a feed him to the young guy and then cut him after he loses kind of fight.
Isaac Dulgarian | $9100 | -260 | 37%
This fight is one I think you will want a piece of no matter which way you lean. Dulgarian will wrestle heavy and often while trying to find a submission finish. Yadier del Valle also has some wrestling chops but he also is very busy on the output of significant strikes. Should be a fun matchup, and I lean Isaac by way of chain wrestling the gas tank away of del Valle until he finds a finish. Isaac has 120+ upside with his wrestling, so we are going to assume this is how the fight plays out and he racks up all the DK points.
Alice Ardelean | $9300 | -400 | 23%
Our Romanian Rockstar via interwebs, Ardelean is a huge favorite against Conejo Ruiz here who I think will be biting off more than she can chew here. Alice lost a couple close decisions to start her career in the UFC, but she averages 6.73 significant strikes per minute to go along with occasionally mixing it a little wrestling. I think she has a chance to have a really nice DK score, but will need to find a finish to be optimal.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Allan Nascimento | $9100 | -263 | 19%
Durden will be looking to wrestle the entire time, so if Nascimento can keep it on the feet than I think we see him piece Cody up on the feet. Durden is 1-4 in his last 5 fights, and Allan is coming in pretty low owned for his price tag, so if he can find a finish and not be taken down and controlled he should be able to score well.
Seokhyeon Ko| $8800 | -200 | 27%
Takedown machine going up against a fighter who is 5 inches taller, has a 9 inch reach advantage, and a lot more experience inside the octagon. However, he wrestled his ass off last time out and will look to keep pace with the averaging of 4 takedowns per 15 minutes against someone like Rowe who sports a 56% takedown defense.
Themba Gorimbo | $8400 | -125 | 25%
These guys are both fighters who prefer to wrestle offensively, and both sport 80%+ takedown defense, but Themba is the bigger fighter, has the reach, and averages higher output both on the feet striking and when it comes to attempting and landing takedowns. In a fight like this, I want the more aggressive fighter who also happens to not almost be 40 years old like his opponent Wells.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
David Onama | $7900 | +114 | 37%
There are only a handful of dogs who look okay this week, and Onama is the one who will come with the most ownership. This is low key a very good headliner, Garcia is on a nice win streak coming in and Onama is 4-1 in his last 5 fights. Onama will initiate wrestling more than Garcia, but he also should have the power advantage. Pretty even fight based on metrics, so we side with the dog for the savings. 5.24 significant strikes per minute, shoots a takedown per round, and I think we see him get a quick finish here, otherwise we may have to worry about the gas tank fading.
ChangHo Lee | $7700 | +105 | 30%
He is a DK scoring machine, and the line has moved in his favor the last few days. Averaging 111 DK points, he has 2 takedowns in both of his UFC wins, 3 reversals, 9 minutes of control time and is coming off a TKO win last time out en route to 137 DK points in a 2nd round win. Huge upside.
Daniel Frunza | $7500 | +140 | 24%
This should be a good fight to watch, Frunza has double the output on the feet averaging over 6.3 significant strikes while also shooting for a few takedowns to mix it up. He is 4 inches taller, has a slight reach advantage, and is 4 years younger than Radtke who is coming in being knocked out in 2 of his last 3 fights.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Billy Elekana | $8900 | -250 | 22%
He literally scored 44 points in a win his last time out, after stepping in on short notice for his debut and having an okay round before getting finished. No way in hell I am paying 8900 for Billy here. If he gets a big score, I will get burned by the 22% who played him.
Norma Dumont | $8600 | -160 | 16%
Norma looked incredible last time out. However, this fight is the biggest favorite to go the distance, and Vieira is known to play the clinch and hold against the cage game which will eat up minutes and take away time for Norma to land significant strikes. She is probably a fight away, maybe two, from a title shot here. I just don’t want to target a fight where she won’t be wrestling and racking up DK points in an easy fashion.
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