Back in action this week for UFC Fight Night Vegas 109. Yet another Apex card….but at least the main event is nice, with a matchup of highly ranked middleweights with Roman Dolidze taking on Anthony Hernandez.
We have 12 fights this week, and most of the dogs on this card are massive underdogs so we could have another card like last week where we did not have a favorite lose until Magny won on the main card and then Duncan won the co-main to add a second. Very tough week for DFS but nonetheless we trudge on.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Vegas 109 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Julius Walker | $9400 | -600 | 40%
He is fighting someone who absolutely looks like they don’t belong in the UFC. This is such a weird price for him, being the most expensive and 2nd highest owned coming off a loss to a mediocre Menefield, but he took it on short notice and is a young up and coming prospect who looks solid. 1st round KO incoming, just got to hope he outscores Smith if you go him over Elijah.
Elijah Smith | $9300 | -700 | 37%
He looked like an absolute stud on the contender series and then had to go out and really earn the decision win last time out. He is a prolific wrestler who will rack up takedowns and control and I think we see him get a finish this time around and break 100+ DK points. He will be the bigger and stronger fighter in the octagon and has higher output on the feet than Kazama and is a better wrestler. I think you have to pick between Walker and Smith which stinks because both are favored for a first round finish.
Anthony Hernandez | $8700 | -330 | 59%
This is a fight I think you want 100% of in your lineups. Fluffy’s style of fighting is insane for DK scoring because he just chain wrestles you to death and wears you out with control time. Roman will be his toughest test, but he averages 2 takedowns per round and Roman only has a 33% takedown defense. My heart wants to pick Roman, but I think the smart route here is Hernandez to wear him down with the wrestling and rack up a shit ton of takedowns and control time en route to a late round finish.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Uros Medic | $8900 | -450| 43%
This fight is pretty straight forward, Medic is a big favorite and is favored to win by KO/TKO quickly. Urbina’s route to winning is to implement grappling and getting takedowns, which Medic is very middle of the road at defending. However, Medic is much better on the feet and should find a finish for us.
Joselyne Edwards | $8600 | -285 | 33%
Has scored over 100 in her last two wins in the UFC, taking on Cachoeira who will be a little bit smaller and have a 5 inch reach disadvantage against Edwards. Edwards has higher output on the feet, Cachoeira averages being hit with 7 significant strikes per minute and Joselyne can fall back on wrestling if she needs to.
Cody Brundage | $8200 | -148 | 34%
This fight is…well it is the last minute filler on the card for a reason. It will be highly owned because of how the mid tier is priced this week, and Brundage is someone who is above average I guess, but he is facing someone who looked dreadful last time out. McConico looks the part, but this should be Cody by whichever means he decides to finish the fight by.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Andre Fili | $7800 | +205 | 22%
We please have the good Fili show up who does not make bone headed decisions inside the cage? These guys are fairly evenly matched, with Fili slightly having higher output on the feet with significant strikes, more take down attempts, and a 3 inch reach advantage. C-Rod has had some issues making weight in the past, but also knocked off a handful of the prospects he was being fed to, but in a closely lined fight on a card where there are not many live dogs, sign me up.
Ode Osbourne | $7100 | +400 | 16%
These guys are both 2-3 in their last 5, but Ode is an explosive athlete who has the ability to put your lights out, and that is exactly what has happened to Erceg his last 2 fights. I think Ode probably has the highest ceiling of the dogs with a 1st round KO upside which is 100+ DK points, but he is a big dog for a reason so I am not going to go wild here. If he does not get a finish in the first two rounds, he probably will gas out and Erceg will get him to the mat and submit him.
Eryk Anders | $7000 | +400 | 21%
So, I don’t really like Anders a great deal, but CLD has shown the ability to fight down to his opponents level, and it gets you different by not using Roman as your dog. I think CLD is the better fighter, but we have seen the big favorites who are really only slightly above average as UFC fighters struggle all freaking year. I don’t really love it, but he is the third dog on the list if you don’t use the other two and have Fluffy. Obviously if you don’t use Fluffy and use Roman, I would not worry about Anders being a fill in unless you just happen to fall to his salary, but I would try to find the $100 to move up to Ode for a higher ceiling.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Steve Erceg | $9100 | -550 | 27%
He has not scored enough DK points to pay off this salary he has except once. I think the finishing upside of the people priced around him make him tough to play, especially coming off b2b knockout losses.
Gabriella Fernandez | $8800 | -400 | 26%
She looked great in her big upset of Cong, but this fight really projects to be a snoozefest where Stoliarenko will look to snag her signature armbar, and Fernandes tries to get the win however she can. It just does not make sense to play her over Medic or Fluffy with their upside, so no chance I am paying up for her.
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