Back in action this week for UFC Fight Night Vegas 108. We have new fights incoming to save the card as one of the guys in the main event pulled out, so it should be another interesting night in the Apex Arena for these guys.
We have 12 fights officially, even with 2 sloppy weigh in misses, but regardless we have some very interesting DFS matchups up and down the roster on this one and we are now headlined by Taira vs Park. Austin Bashi vs Yannis just got thrown into the mix as well, and we have a few other known guys fighting which should make it a fun card to play. There are four favorites whose money lines are over -400 and Taira is barely below that, so a very top heavy card here. DK does not have the Bashi fight in the player pool yet, so keep an eye out for that one.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Nashville slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests
Austin Bashi | $9600 | -700 | 40%
Biggest favorite on the card after a disappointing debut, is given a primary striker who all he will need to do is get the fight to the ground. I think Bashi has very big upside for DK points with his wrestling, and ideally we get some chain wrestling en route to a first or second round finish so he can score 110+ at this price point.
Tatsuro Taira | $9200 | -335 | 44%
Taira is coming in off a “good” loss to Royval and now faces an undefeated prospect who is taking this fight on short notice. He will look to get this fight to the ground where he excels, he had 6 takedowns last fight, and I think if we can get into the later rounds with his gas tank being there and Park’s gone from a short notice fight then he could really rack up DK points en route to submitting a gassed Park.
Mateusz Rebecki | $9000 | -210 | 30%
This will be a good fight, but I think we see Rebecki edge Duncan out as he seems to be slightly better both on the feet and with offensive wrestling. The price tag is a little higher than I would have wanted, but we saw Mateusz rack up DK points in his last fight and I think we see a similar approach here en route to a 100+ point win.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Rinya Nakamura | $9300| -400| 19%
This one is kind of scary, we all saw how awful he looked not trying to wrestle last time out, but this is why he is now going to be 19% owned instead of 30%. I think we see him control all three rounds en route to a decision win, but if he can mix in the wrestling and get control time and takedowns and get those extra DK points he could very well outscore some of the guys he is priced around at nearly half their ownership.
Esteban Ribovis | $9100 | -250 | 24%
He averages over 8 significant strikes per minute, when he gets wins he scores 100+, and he is fighting Brener who is okay but also is a striker who looks to bang and has less than half the output as Esteban. I will take the high volume guy who has shown he can finish people inside the distance with the striking here, but he is a GPP pivot because if he does not get a finish, without any grappling upside he will need to like 175+ significant strikes to pay off his salary with the wrestlers who are priced around him and are big favorites as well.
Piera Rodriguez | $8700 | -220 | 25%
The mid tier is absolute garbage this week, but nonetheless I am going to side with Piera here due to the fact she averages 4 takedowns per fight. This is the clear path to winning here, Souza only has a 64% takedown defense so if we could get multiple takedowns and control time racking up in the 3 rounds she should be able to get a nice DK score for us at relatively low ownership on a 12 fight card.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Nick Klein | $7800 | +130 | 23%
This is another matchup of Klein the grappler against Pulyaev the striker, but the edge Klein has on the mat is significantly higher than the edge Andrey has in striking. We have seen Klein work in some nice submissions, and that is going to be why he is my favorite dog as he truly has the ability to sneak out a submission in any round, we just hope it’s early so he scores 100+.
Nora Cornolle| $7600 | +150 | 19%
Nora is only a +150 dog. Rosa has 0 finishes in the UFC with 10 decisions in a row, is not a big grappler as she only has 12 takedowns total over those 10 fights, while Nora has 3 wins in her 4 UFC fights with different methods to victory in each. In a close women’s fight I am going to lean the dog more times than not absent a distinct grappling advantage.
Neil Magny | $7400 | +170 | 20%
This fight is just two old dogs showing us no new tricks in the cage. Neither is great, but Magny has only lost to some elite fighters in the division lately while Elizeu has not fought the same level of competition. 7 inch reach advantage, more inclined to initiate wrestling and grappling exchanges, I will take the dog here and hope he gets a finish, but even a decision win should pay off his salary if he can mix in the grappling.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Kevin Vallejos | $9400 | -300 | 34%
This should be a super fun fight to watch as they both are primary strikers, but Silva is very durable and will mix in grappling if he cannot find success on the feet, and I think if Kevin does not find as finish in the first two rounds than he will not pay off his salary.
Andrey Pulyaev | $8400 | -117 | 25%
See Klein write up above.
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