Ten fights are on the slate for UFC Vegas 107, we lost Gustafsson and Giles naturally after all the shenanigans…and we are back at the good old Apex. Headlined by Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber. There is no real sugar coating this one, this fight night has a lot of fighters who are not household names. There are 2 women’s fights, including the main event, that have two top 5 ranked fighters face off. Gamrot is in the co-main against Ludovit Klein, which is kind of weird for the #7 ranked lightweight to fight someone unranked, but here we are. There will be money to be made, and typically a weird fight night with lesser known people results in more finishes.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Vegas 107 slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Erin Blanchfield | $9100 | -250 | 59%
This is a big time fight in the division, albeit one that looks like it will go the distance. Blanchfield averages about half a strike more per minute on the feet, has a 30% better takedown defense, 5% better significant strike defense, averages almost 2 takedowns per fight and now will have 2 extra rounds to go against Barber’s 53% takedown defense.
Bolaji Oki | $8900 | -365 | 41%
Averages a solid 5.6 significant strikes per minute, 2 takedowns per fight, and has a 4 inch reach advantage where Aswell only sports a 57% takedown defense and looks to throw like crazy as he averages 10 significant strikes per minute from his DWCS fight, but he also is taking this fight on just days notice.
Billy Ray Goff | $8300 | -325 | 63%
Averages 8.5 significant strikes per minute, 100% takedown defense, averages 2 takedowns per fight, and is 6 years younger. He is the chalkiest play on the slate for a reason due to upside at his salary, I would just be different elsewhere if trying to be unique.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Zachary Reese | $9200| -232| 44%
Has elite BJJ and grappling, but just can’t afford to put himself in compromising positions like he did last time out. He averages 5 significant strikes per minute and 3.5 takedowns per fight and 2 submission attempts per fight. Look for him to use his bigger frame and length to pick apart Todorovic before getting him to the mat for a submission.
Rayannne dos Santos | $9300 | -300 | 18%
This fight stinks. This card makes it where you need someone lower owned due to only have 20 fighters to pick from, so dos Santos will be very low owned due to her not scoring well in her wins. Ardelean stinks also, and we probably see a decision but if we get an early finish from the pillow strikes or due to grappling this can win you a GPP.
Ketlen Vieira | $8200 | -112 | 18%
This fight is surprisingly not as owned as I expected, so I am going to side with Vieira who is coming in lower owned and projected to outscore Chaisson en route to a win.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Ludovit Klein | $7700 | +120| 24%
Gamrot is fighting him in kind of a surprise as Klein is not ranked and Gamrot is #7. Klein is 4 years younger, 2 inch reach advantage, averages more significant strikes per minute and Gamrot is going to just shoot takedowns repeatedly like always. Klein has a 91% takedown defense, so give me the dog who has finishing upside with his striking and can go toe to toe in the grappling.
Kurt Holobaugh | $7500 | +157 | 22%
Averages 2 more significant strikes per minute than Leavitt, somehow Leavitt is one of the higher owned plays this week, just has to not get taken down and when he wins it is usually high scoring for DK purposes. This card is tough for DFS and any underdog winning is huge.
Bruno Lopes| $7400 | +242 | 24%
Bruno looks 50, but he is actually 5 years younger than Jacoby at 32. This will be a matchup of Jacoby the Kickboxer against Lopes who will look to wrestle and get him down. Lopes averages almost a takedown per round, and Jacoby sports a 62% takedown defense so I like the underdog with wrestling upside here.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
No fades on a 10 fight card. If you are playing MME and have a bunch of lineups, include everyone weighted accordingly to be different. Anything under 20 lineups I would fade Aswell JR and Ardelean.
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