We are sitting at 12 fights, with a cancellation of the Santos/Grant fight and Kennedy pulling out against Buday but we got an undersized LFA champ to take the fight on short notice to replace him and keep it at a bakers dozen for us. Hopefully we have no more shenanigans with fights being called off in the lead up, but nonetheless we trudge on and make the most of what we can on this funky card.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Mexico slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Dione Barbosa | $9400 | -600 | 30%
She is going to not let Diana pick her apart on the feet and will drag her down to the mat and look for a finish. This fight is now favored to end under 2.5 rounds, Barbosa is a -600 favorite who should handle business and get us a win inside the distance with a grapple heavy approach.
Torrez Finney | $9000 | -230 | 42%
He will shoot takedowns, has amazing cardio, and will look to close the distance on the much taller Valentin to negate the 6 inch height disadvantage, even if it is only a 2 inch reach difference. We want the grappling upside with someone who can chain wrestle and will look to finish the fight instead of riding out position.
Martin Buday| $7000 | -135 | 39%
He is not great, but he had a full camp and has a solid 40 pounds on his opponent who is stepping in on 2 days notice and moving up a weight class. This could be a sloppy ass fight from the big boys, but I will lean with the guy who has UFC experience and was training for this fight as opposed to the short notice light heavyweight hoping to make a splash.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Luis Gurule | $8900 | -225 | 27%
Time for another prospect to make is debut and risk his 0 against a guy who has shown flashes in the UFC. Ode isn’t a bad fighter, but Gurule looks like he will be just a little better wherever the fight goes, and has bigtime wrestling upside to rely on if he is losing the exchanges on the feet.
Joanderson Brito | $8700 | -205 | 39%
He had a bad loss to Gomis after winning 5 in a row all by finish, and now gets the wrestle heavy approach of Sabatini. He is better both on the feet, and with his BJJ, so let’s get Brito at a reasonable price here while he gets another win inside the distance.
Victor Henry | $8800 | -205 | 28%
Henry averages nearly 5 more significant strikes than Falcao, has excellent takedown defense at 84%, and should be in line to get the win by being the busier fighter on the feet who will piece of Pedro as he attempts to get the fight to the mat.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Vanessa Demopoulos | $8000 | -110 | 33%
This pick is due to Vanessa being the higher output fighter on the feet averaging almost 4 significant strikes per minute to Talita’s 2.5, the only thing she will have to be cognizant of is Alencar shooting takedowns once she can’t hang on the feet. She should grind out a low scoring win, but with how wacky this card is for DFS, we need any dog we can get to win.
Cortavious Romious | $7800 | +145 | 22%
I was worried Lee would not take the fight after Romious missed weight by 4 pounds, but nevertheless we get the guy facing a cocky fighter in Lee who will have to deal with someone who did not even try to cut the weight at the end and should be a little heavier when it comes to grappling, and they both will look to get the fight to the ground. Lee only has a 38% takedown defense.
Josh Emmett | $6900 | +270 | 30%
We all know the unreal power Emmett has in his hands, we have seen him win 4 of his last 6 wins by knockout, and the viral meme of bryce mitchell convulsing on the mat will forever be ingrained in my memory. Murphy has been fairly clean in most of his fights, but we saw him get knocked down and survive once and I just don’t see that happening if Emmett lands clean. This is Emmett’s last hoorah it feels like as he is now 40, but he still has the power and is so cheap that in any win he more than pays off.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Lerone Murphy | $9300 | -320 | 47%
Murphy is an undefeated monster in the division whose only blemish is a draw in his first UFC fight. However, I would rather take the savings and go with Emmett who is all healed up after his layoff and only has 2 losses in the last 6 years with one being to Topuria. If it goes to decision and Lerone wins there is a path where he does not even break 90 points, which at his salary would not be optimal.
Brad Tavares | $9100 | -255 | 15%
The battle of the washed vets, I just cannot fathom paying 9100 on DK for Tavares who is 1-4 in his last 5 fights and will have to get a KO to win inside the distance, because if they get to the mat Meerschaert will have the advantage with his BJJ.
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