Back in action this week for UFC fight night Shanghai, which should be a pretty fun card overall even though you will have to either stay up all night to watch it live, or wake up at 3AM to see what is going on. This fight card is loaded up with some fairly big favorites, so there are only a few betting underdogs who will look decent to pick from, but at least we have 12 fights this week…if Ortega doesn’t pull out after what looked like a grueling weight cut that he couldn’t make and now it’s a catch weight fight.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Shanghai slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Zhang Mingyang | $9400 | -335 | 49%
This headliner should be fun while it lasts. Zhang has been knocking people out left and right in his UFC run, and there may not be another human on this planet who has been knocked out and had goofy reactions on the way down than Walker. If you make multiple lineups I would play some Walker also, but Zhang is – odds to win in round 1, will be the chalk of the slate, and with his style a round one win will be 100+ with the knockdown.
Michel Pereira | $9200 | -260 | 24%
I hope we get the fun, crazy Michel back this week. He has the ability to become an absolute animal in the octagon, with both his powerful striking and elite grappling. He is coming off b2b losses, one where he was dominated by Fluffy’s wrestling (which at this point everybody has this happen) and a super boring, low output fight against Abus Magomedov where he was not his normal self. He has slate breaking upside with his insane power and ability to find submissions, and I think we see him get back in the win column here. He averages over 4.5 significant strikes per minute, a takedown per fight, and when he finds a finish he averages 100 DK points.
Aljamain Sterling | $9000 | -400 | 53%
Ortega looked like death at weigh ins..hopefully they don’t cancel the fight post lock..Is one of the best wrestlers/grapplers in the entire UFC, showcased his ability with his scrambles and reversals last fight against Evloev which was a very close fight that did not go his way. Ortega seems washed, he has only won 2 times in 6 years and his last win was when Yair had him hurt and then couldn’t finish it and gassed. Sterling is not going to gas out, he will be able to defend the submission attempts and will not put himself in a bad spot and I think we see a wrestling and control masterclass from Aljo for 5 rounds which will score great for DK. He averages more significant strikes per minute than T City, a takedown per round and has much better defense on the feet.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Taiyilake Nueraji | $9300 | -500 | 36%
I am glad I am only writing him up so I don’t have to attempt to say his name..but he is a fast and furious on the feet, has a 5 inch reach advantage and is 11 years younger. Crosbie will more than likely look to shoot takedowns here so he will need to stay on his feet, but but he averages almost double the significant strikes out of these two. This fight is favorites to end inside the distance as well.
Rongzu | $9100 | -252 | 16%
I like Hubbard, but Rongzu has very good takedown defense at 84%, averages almost 6 significant strikes per minute, is 8 years younger and fighting in front of the home crowd. He is a solid pivot off the other 9K guys for a drop in ownership.
SuYoung You | $8400 | -115 | 23%
This is the classic wrestler vs striker, and You has a pretty solid offensive wrestling attack and if Xiao cannot stuff the takedowns, then it will quickly be the chain wrestling game where You racks up DK points and has a monster score. In his two UFC fights, You is averaging over 6 minutes of control time and over a takedown per round. He is not a big striker, so if he does not realize success on the feet, his 1.88 significant strikes per minute will not hold up, so we need him to wrestle here.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Kevin Borjas | $7700 | +140 | 17%
Borjas has had a very tough stretch to start his career, with his first opponent being Josh Van who is fighting for the title next, followed up with fights against a TKO loss to Costa and then a unanimous decision win over Rodriguez who was supposed to beat him. Borjas has an 80% finish rate in the fights he wins, all by KO/TKO, and he gets Sumudaerji who has lower output on the feet, equal takedown attempts, and got his first win in 3 years in April this year against a very mediocre Raposo.
Charles Johnson | $7400 | +175 | 20%
Johnson looks like he’s in a different weight class compared to Kavaunagh(almost looks like a hobbit). Johnson has 3 inch reach advantage, will be the one who initiates wrestling if the striking isn’t going his way, and averages over 1 more significant strike per minute than Kavanaugh. He may only score 70 if it’s a striking match, but we are looking for wins here and he has a good path to victory.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta | $7300 | +215 | 18%
I think my first reaction when I saw this fight is going to be similar to many others, “holy shit Sergei is going to murder Waldo.” However, when you look at the analytics, Waldo has a higher output, is more athletic, and Sergei is going to rely on his reach and boxing in a fight where he may need more than that to win. Waldo has shown the ability to adopt whatever gameplan is needed to win, and Pavlovich is coming in off a 3 fight streak of 2 losses and one of the most boring wins ever by him where he wrestled Rozenstruik. Sergei has 1 punch KO power and can do it quickly, but any win by Waldo should pay off his salary. He averages nearly 6 significant strikes per minute, has won 5 fights in a row in the UFC, and 7 of his last 8.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Yizha | $9900 | -1200 | 31%
9900 for someone who is 0-2 in the UFC. Wilson is very long and rangy and has above average submission skills. He will need either a first round dominant finish, or to rack up a ton of takedowns and control and I would rather side with the cheaper guys on this card who have real KO power like Michel or Zhang.
Lone’er Kavaughner | $8800 | -205 | 17%
See above with the Charles Johnson write up.
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