Back in action this week for UFC Rio, we are down to 12 fights- maybe- after losing Usman vs Walker. Almeida looks like he has a broken hand and that fight could get called off. Lacerda made weight while his opponent missed by 8 freakin pounds, so that fight is allegedly on with stipulations of Oliveira needing to stay within a certain rehydration weight (allegedly) soooooo, we are going to try and avoid some land mines, find a few gems, and keep the winnings going.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Rio slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Joel Alvarez | $9500 | -500 | 53%
Has only lost to Arman in the last 5 years, has the height, reach and age advantage, averages 4.5 significant strikes per minute and should be able to march through Luque here. Averages over 96 DK points per win, so I would expect another high score from him here. Alvarez is a finishing machine in his wins, and even though you would think he was much younger than Luque, he is only 1 year younger. However, he does not have the wear and tear on his body or the brain bleeding issue Vicente had, and unless Luque can chain wrestle and keep Joel from striking, I don’t see how he survives this.
Vitor Petrino | $9100 | -310 | 43%
From a mediocre light heavyweight prospect, to someone who in the heavyweight division will have a speed advantage over most and has the power and submission ability to finish guys on the feet or on the mat. Peterson is a goofy mediocre heavyweight (aren’t they all for the most part) who is coming off a domination of the shitbag Mayes. Petrino should find the chin of Tommy the Train here and KO him, but we will more than likely need it to be in round one in order for his salary to pay off.
Michael Aswell JR | $8600 | -139 | 28%
This ownership is going to soar tomorrow, if the fight stays booked. It very much looked like Almeida’s hand was broken at weight ins/face off, and if that is the case I don’t know how he expects to compete in this fight. Aswell would be smart to throw punches non stop making Almeida block with his injured hand until he cannot keep it up and finds a finish or Lucas/his team throws in the towel. If you make only 1-3 lineups I would keep it to just one with him, on the offhand chance they call the fight off after lock like we have seen some fighters do in the past.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Montel Jackson | $9000 | -310 | 37%
Montel has a huge 5 inch height advantage, 7 inch reach advantage, and also has the wrestling advantage. He typically scores great in wins on DK, minus his last fight, and Figgy is getting up there in age and cage time, so look for Jackson to wrestle his way to another big DK score. His output on the feet is about .4 higher per minute than Daiveson, while Figueiredo sports a medicare 58% takedown defense and is coming off a submission loss to Sandhagen.
Luan Lacerda | $8900 | -245 |45%
Oliveira should get destroyed here. Lacerda has not fought in a couple years, but he nearly doubles Saimon in output on the feet, he only averages 1.26 takedowns per 15, but Oliveira sports a miserable 38% takedown defense and after he missed weight by 8 pounds, Lacerda should look to get him down to the mat and finish him.
Clayton Carpenter | $8200 | -115 | 29%
Carpenter and Filho will come down to who can impose the wrestling/grappling offensively. Carpenter is better on the feet, out paces Filho almost 2-1 on significant strike output, and they both average over 2 takedowns per fight. Carpenter averages 100 DK points in is wins, and at this price tag would be optimal as hell. He also has very very good BJJ to fall back on, so at this price point we just need 85ish to pay off and in a win he should get there.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Jhonata Diniz | $7900 | +105 |38%
Pinto is a big boy who damn near got knocked out by Austen Lane before sending him to the shadow realm in the second round for his debut in the UFC. Diniz has not looked superb in his own right, but Lane is garbage and I think we will see Diniz get to Pinto and finish what Lane started as Austen had Pinto in trouble early in his debut. If there is not a finish, it could be tough for either of them to pay off. Typically when we target heavyweight fights where they are both strikers we expect as finish though, and Pinto likes to head hunt in is own right, so we will look for Diniz to counter and KO his big ass.
Charles Olivera | $7800 | -104| 50%
I think you will want this fight no matter which side you are on in all your lineups. Gamrot’s style with the hyper aggressive wrestle heavy approach always scores well on DK. I think Charles has the advantage on the feet, and definitely has the advantage in submissions if he can find one. I think Gamrot is a slightly worse version of Arman, and even though Charls is coming off a big knockout loss against Ilia, I would not be surprised to see him clip Mateusz and look for another performance bonus here.
Stewart Nicoll | $7700 | +110 | 38%
Wrestle heavy picks this week, as Nicoll will be looking to wrestle and control the fight, while Lucas will look to pressure and finish the fight on the feet. The dog with wrestling upside against someone who has bad take down defense seems like a good route to take here. 5 takedowns per 15 min, against someone with mediocre takedown defense. Clear path to victory here is takedowns and control.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Julia Polastri | $9400 | -450 | 32%
9400 for someone who is averaging 58 DK points, scored 81 in her only win, is just insane to me. I get Kowalkiewicz is old and a big underdog for a reason, but I genuinely don’t see how you pay up for this when you have people with monster scoring upside around who have shown the ability to find finishes.
Lucas Rocha | $8500 | -130| 25%
See write up for Nicoll above.
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