Back in action this week for UFC fight night Paris, which should be an awesome card overall with a huge middleweight contender fight as the main event. We of course have a bunch of frenchies on the card, I don’t think I need to go into much detail on what we normally see from them, but top to bottom it should be fun and we get 13 fights even after Ziam withdrew, so we have an interesting fight on DK now where the guy who was a massive underdog is now going to be super chalky. Unfortunately Kieta decided not to make weight, so we lose the fight with him and Pitbull.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Paris slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Oumar Sy | $9500 | -400 | 45%
Ribeiro is not good, has snuck out wins and now gets Sy in front of his home crowd coming off a super disappointing performance where he knows he needs to come out and make a statement. He only averages 3.6 significant strikes per minute, but I think we see him put Brendson to sleep here. He is coming off his first lost to Menefield in a boring ass fight, but he has 100+ upside easily in this matchup.
Sam Hughes | $9200 | -310 | 22%
Bannon is cheeks, literally if you follow her on socials, and I think we will see Sam wrestle here and control her all fight. Hughes is not a great fighter, but I think she will outclass Shauna wherever she takes this fight and we will get her at decently low ownership because she is 9200 and priced around some big names.
Mason Jones | $8600 | -135 | 27%
This is a really good matchup but I think Jones will have the edge in the wrestling part of the fight game and will look to make Oki burn through his gas tank fighting off takedowns and countering the grappling he will bring. He averages over 5.5 significant strikes per minute and 4 takedowns per fight, so he can score some DK points for us. He scores over 117 in his wins, so lets see him do his thing and have a slate breaking performance at 8600.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Modestas Bukauskas | $9300 | -350 | 38%
This fight will be quick if it stays on the feet. Craig is elite on the ground grappling, but Bukauskas should keep this on the feet and knock Paul out early for a nice big DK score here. He has improved each of his last few fights, and has started training with the real heavyweight goat Tommy boy so I expect a nice performance here.
Mauricio Ruffy | $8800 | -200 | 35%
I love BSD, but Ruffy looks like the real deal. He is tough to hit, excellent take down defense, and an elite counter striker. We have seen Benoit get himself in trouble by marching forward, and this is the classic wrestler vs striker matchup. Normally I side with the wrestler, but BSD in his home country against arguably the second best fighter he has faced, I think Ruffy shows why all the fighting nerds say he is the most talented fighter in their camp.
Andreas Gustafsson | $8300 | -118 | 32%
I think this is one of the best fights for DFS purposes, and I am going to take the self proclaimed Simple Jack approach Gustafsson will implement and go all out non stop with pressure, wrestling, and looking to finish Rinat here. They both are very good wrestlers, both score over 100 in DK wins, and I am going to side with the slight favorite here.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
Nassourdine Imavov | $7800 | +110 | 35%
This fight is one I am okay with fading for DFS purposes if you don’t fall on either of them organically, but if we pick one I am going to take the dog for the 600 savings who fights Borralho who’s best win is over Cannonier. I think Dana making his comment about the RDR fluffy fight competing with this for the next shot at the belt will push them to try and be exciting, so I will take the Frenchy to pull off an upset over the Fighting Nerd.
Rhys McKee | $7700 | +115 | 19%
Rhys had an amazing performance last time out with 3 knockdowns and a doctor stoppage shortly after round 1 which had him score over 140. He is tough, fighting Sola who is making his debut, and I think we see him mix in some cage control if he cannot find success in the open on their feet.
Kaue Fernandes | $6800 | -170 | 49%
He is no longer the dog, and is going to be the highest owned fighter on the entire slate. He gets a guy in Hardwick coming in on short notice, fighting up a weight class from where he normally fights. I think we see Fernandes do what needs to be done, and he has scored over 80 in DK wins so at this price point if he has a big score and you fade him, you are likely dead.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
William Gomis | $9000 | -225 | 17%
For his price point, he averages 60 fantasy points and has not paid off his salary one time for DFS purposes. No way in hell I get him in my lineups. I am sure he will win, but it just is tough to look at this fight and think he will pay off his salary.
Brad Tavares | $9100 | -212 | 11%
This one is a no brainer, Tavares stinks and no chance he pays off his salary without a fluke KO. I don’t think I would play him if he was 6100, but regardless I think the 11% of people who project to play him are crazy.
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