Back in action this week for UFC Noche, which I think is slightly underwhelming considering the importance the UFC has put on this event in years past. At least they are back in my neck of the woods in San Antonio, and we get a banger headliner of Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. This is huge for the featherweight division, as a Silva win likely ensures he fights the winner of Volk’s next title defense. We get 14 fights, somehow the Gastelum fight is still on after the unserious Kelvin missed weight once again by 5 freaking pounds.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Noche slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
Tatiana Suarez | $9400 | -400 | 38%
Tatiana is going to wrestle her ass off this fight, coming off the first loss of her career she gets Lemos who is 2-2 in her last four fights and only sports a 59% takedown defense against someone who averages over a takedown per round. Suarez is going to close the distance and big sister her all fight, which means big DK points.
Zachary Reese | $8900 | -235 | 38%
This fight is….interesting. More than likely is a DFS gold mine for DK scoring as one of these guys is going to finish the other. We know Dumas is broke as shit and needs a win, and we know Reese needs a win to not get booted out of the UFC after looking terrible in almost all but one of his fights. Dumas has a subpar ground game, so I expect a quick takedown and then the BJJ of Reese to take over and find a finish.
Daniil Donchenko | $8800 | -240 | 28%
He is a striker going up against a wrestler here in The Ultimate Fighter finale. Daniil should be able to win by KO here via first or second round once Sezinando attempts a couple takedowns and gets thwarted, maybe we even get one of those fun elbows to the side of the head as Rodrigo tries a takedown and doesn’t let go of his legs until he is out cold.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
Alessandro Costa | $9500 | -400 | 21%
He gets Coria making his UFC debut, and from what it looks like he should hold a slight advantage in the wrestling/grappling department while also carrying a little bit more power in his striking. This would be a pivot off the Silva/Suarez/Reese picks who will be very high owned.
Dusko Todorovic | $9300 | -300 | 24%
Medina is not good. At all. Dusko is above average. However, Dusko can knock someone out and Medina has shown the ability to get himself in bad spots… so we will try to turn chicken shit into chicken salad here and go with Dusko who should be better in every aspect this fight could go.
Jared Gordon | $9100 | -240 | 16%
This is a pretty interesting matchup, and I think we see Gordon keep pushing here coming off his big first round win over Moises and having won two of his last three fights by first round finish. He averages over 5.6 significant strikes per minute so he knows how to stay busy, is a solid wrestler and I think we see him rack up another W here.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
David Martinez | $7700 | +125 | 28%
He is taking this fight on short notice, but Martinez is a gamer who has a nice first round KO in his only UFC fight. Font is a wily veteran, and will have the flight reach advantage, but I think we will see the young dog here fight for our money and he has the KO upside every time he steps in the cage. 5.4 significant strikes per minute and he also rocks a 100% takedown defense so far, so with him being 11 years younger, faster, I am going to take the dog here.
Montse Rendon | $7600 | +135 | 17%
Should come in pretty low owned, and she is almost twice the age of her opponent, but I think she will implement a grapple heavy approach as she has 3 takedowns in each of her last UFC fights, and if Alice Pereira is anything like her brother, she will not want to be taken down and needs to keep the fight standing. Underdog with wrestling upside, in a women's fight where one is making her debut and has all the pressure of being Poatan's sister..
Diego Lopes | $7000 | +220 | 30%
I think we will see Diego learn from the mistakes he made in the step up against Volk for the belt. Silva is an animal in his own right, but he has not exactly faced some killer on his path to this fight. Diego should look to get his grappling going against Silva, where he is other worldly in that respect, and we have seen him have big KO power as well. I would rather side with Diego here than pay up for Silva and if Silva does not get a finish first two rounds he does not pay off, whereas any Lopes win is going to be optimal.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
Kelvin Gastelum | $9000 | -250 | 19%
He stinks, is a boring fighter and I think Dustin is good enough to not get finished by Gastelum which means there is near zero chance of him paying off his salary.
Rob Font | $8500 | -145| 14%
See Martinez write up above.
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