We are sitting at 13 fights again which is great for DFS. UFC Fight Night Mexico comes with Moreno vs Erceg as the headliner. We only had one missed weight of the 26 fighters, so that is surprising considering Kelvin is on the card and looked like he weighed 200 pounds in his photo for the week.Up and down the card you’ll see a lot of fighters from Mexico/South America for good reason, and some pretty fun matchups. We have a nice mix of wrestlers and guys with big KO power, a handful of dogs who should be live, and like clockwork a -500 prospect making his debut as the highest priced on DK. Hopefully we don’t get any missed weight cuts or pull outs, and don’t forget they’re fighting at elevation for this event so the gas tanks will be tested more than normal.
Without further delay, let’s get going on our Saturday morning UFC Fight Night Mexico slate sleuthing. In this article I will be identifying some of my favorite plays on the slate and will split them up into different categories. Let’s crush this event together!
TOP PLAYS
These plays are the higher owned fighters on the slate that I believe have a good chance to meet or exceed their value. These plays should be great to use for your low risk contests such as double-ups, 50/50’s, and small-field single entry contests. They should also make a nice core to build around for your multiple-entry contests.
ATEBA GAUTIER | $9600 | -425 | 30%
I get it, it is another prospect who is a big favorite with high expectations who probably will gas if he does not get a finish in the first 1.5 rounds. He is 11 years younger, has a 7 inch reach advantage, and has cinder blocks for hands. If this goes past the midway point of round 2, he will probably gas out and die, but at his price point we are playing him for a big KO win in round one.
RAUL ROSAS JR | $9200 | -375 | 39%
Rojas will be popular, but the dude can rack up DK points which is what we want. He has 12 takedowns in his 4 UFC fights that arent the KO win he got in under a minute against Mitchell. In his 5 UFC fights he averages 4 takedowns per fight, and 4 minutes of control per fight, which does not seem too wild until you look at the fact he has 2 first round finishes and a 2nd round submission. He may be the goofiest looking guy on the roster, but he is young, a prolific wrestler who knows that is how he will win fights, and he will look for submissions once he has his opponent down if he is not able to get the finish with strikes.
BRANDON MORENO | $8600 | -230 | 42%
Erceg had a very quick rise en route to his title shot against Pantoja where he arguably choked away his chance in round 5 with questionable decisions. However, Moreno is a tried and tested former champ who came out and stopped the Albazi train that was running towards a fight for the belt last time out, and his only losses in the last 5 years are to Daveson Figuerada, Brandon Royval and Pantoja, two are former/current champs and Royval has been top 2 in the division for forever. Erceg leaves his chin up and openings to crack him in the face when he fights, and I think we see the baby assassin piece him up and erceg fall back to outside the top 10 again.
GPP PIVOTS
These plays are the fighters that I think have potential to give you leverage over the field in your large-field tournaments and mass multiple-entry contests. They are best used as pivots from similarly priced, more heavily owned fighters. If they win, you then have leverage over the field.
DAVID MARTINEZ | $9400 | -360 | 27%
Saimon looked like death on the scales, and I will take the guy making his debut who averages over 5 significant strikes per minute, has 100% takedown defense who is going against someone who had a tough weight cut, has an output on the feet under 3 significant strikes per minute, and is going to rely on grappling that only averages a 25% success rate on takedowns.
JAMALL EMMERS | $9100 | -312 | 25%
Emmers has a 3 inch reach advantage, averages almost double the output on the feet with 5.3 significant strikes per minute, has a 90% takedown defense against Miranda who will shoot for a takedown per round. Once he stuffs a few, Emmers will wilt him for a finish.
CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ | $8400 | -160 | 20%
I think we see C-Rod just outlast Costa in a decision win here. They are matched very similarly, but Rodriguez has a little better standup compared to Costa, and has better takedown defense. He should be fairly low owned, especially in higher dollar single entry contests.
LIVE DOGS
Due to the salary based nature of DraftKings daily fantasy, you will need an underdog or two in your lineup. Below you will find my favorite underdog plays on the slate along with the contest types that I prefer them for. These fighters are supposed to lose based on the betting odds, but have a better chance of providing value in my opinion than their salary suggests.
DREW DOBER | $8000 | +105 | 33%
This fight has Fight of The Night written all over it with these two. Torres has more ways to win, but we have seen Dober compete at a high level for a while and one of these two will end up knocked out on the canvas. Give me the slight dog with the 200 DK savings.
JULIA POLASTRI | $7400 | +190 | 14%
This is a fairly even match on paper when you analyze their stats, the difference being the fight IQ and decision making of Loopy is very questionable and that means the underdog Polastri comes in play, you need 75+ DK points from her to be 10x and her last time out in a decision win she scored 80. Julia will have the slight 2 inch reach advantage, is 4 years younger, averages over 5.5 significant strikes per minute and is 4-1 in her last 5 fights. There are flashier underdogs to pick for sure, but Polastri has the upside of being matched up against Loopy and just has to bide her time until the mistake is made in the cage.
CJ VERGARA | $7200 | +235 | 19%
Vergara is a wild ride to roster, but I think we see his higher output pay off here and he takes Chairez to a decision win. He should stuff the takedowns, and just has to not get rocked and need to run for his life while picking him apart in the pocket.
FADES
One of the most important parts of multiple-entry lineup construction is reducing the number of “bad” lineups that you enter. To achieve this you will want to remove some fighters from consideration, or at least come in significantly under the field on those fighters. Below you will find the fighters that I will be fading from my lineups.
JOE PYFER | $9300 | -300 | 35%
This is more a fade for the reason that Gastelum is a tough mofo who does not get knocked out, and Pyfer will rely on his power while attempting not to gas at elevation. Somehow the tubby Kelvin has a good gas tank, so I look for him to make this a dirty clinch style of fight and wear out Pyfer who needs a first round finish to payoff.
MARQUEL MEDEROS | $8700 | -186 | 15%
I think we see a close fight here and Mederos is going to require some crazy output on the feet to pay off without any wrestling upside. Hubbard is a tough out for him, and in a decision win MarQuel is going to need to vastly increase his significant strikes per minute, or get a win inside the distance and I just would rather spend my salary elsewhere.
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